Two strong plays

[socrstud]

YTD-12-7....up ~700


I have 2 strong plays today.

They fall between Detroit....And the Indians

Detroit is dominating with its great pitching and great hitting and I don't think it will change in whatever scouting report that they've had against the Twins.

And, The Indians numbers are REDICULOUS...REDICULOUS....They're team as a whole are on base over 300, and everyone is hitting the ball like Crazy, Hafner has 4 homers in a row and all it takes is one bad inning to end a game against the Indians this year.

So I'm very torn between the two....I'm going to play $1000 on one of the teams but I have not made up my mind.....Should I go with good Pitching (Detroit) or should I go with good hitting (Indians)....I would love to double up tonight.... Will be back soon with my verdict.

If anyone has any input to share on these games feel free to unload bad or good.

GLTA

 

[DerekNJND]

see below accidentally posted twice

 

[DerekNJND]

I was looking at Cle myself, FYI Moyer 10-1 in last 11 decisions at home, tough trend to buck

i would hardly call detroits pitching dominant but rogers is a notorious hot april/may starter, even in his years in texas...

i dont like either game, maybe an Under in the Detroit game??

 

[socrstud]

I was looking at Cle myself, FYI Moyer 10-1 in last 11 decisions at home, tough trend to buck

i would hardly call detroits pitching dominant but rogers is a notorious hot april/may starter, even in his years in texas...

i dont like either game, maybe an Under in the Detroit game??

Thanks you for your take Derek APPRECIATE IT!!

Detroit has 8 pitchers with under a 3.0 era I don't know if there is any other team in the league besides the Whitesox with a better team overall ERA...But I could be wrong

Maroth has a 1.78 era

 

[socrstud]

Also Derek.....I don't know where you got that Stat about Moyer

Moyer hasn't won at home in 5 tries at Safeco field....Not sure where you got that one

 

[DerekNJND]

Thanks you for your take Derek APPRECIATE IT!!

Detroit has 8 pitchers with under a 3.0 era I don't know if there is any other team in the league besides the Whitesox with a better team overall ERA...But I could be wrong

Maroth has a 1.78 era

Actually Detroit has the top ERA in baseball so far

BUT their last 13 games have been against Seattle, Min, KC, and LAA, all of whom are in the bottom 10 in runs scored in all of baseball. During that stretch they've allowed 26 runs, or 2 runs per game. tack on their first 2 games against KC to open the season and you have 30 runs in 15 games against FAR BELOW average offenses.

Now if you look at their pitching against better opponents, teams not ranked in the bottom 10 of offense, they've allowed 64 runs in 14 games. Thats an average of almost 5 runs per game, and double what it is against the crappy teams.

Considering they've only played 29 total, pretty amazing splits. Now they are playing a "crappy" team tonight, but I wouldnt call it the quality of Detroits pitching that has their ERA so low, just the number of games against crappy offenses.

Mike Maroth?

4.74 ERA last season in 209 IP. Safe to say perhaps he just had a hot start, I wouldnt read too much into it

 

[DerekNJND]

Also Derek.....I don't know where you got that Stat about Moyer

Moyer hasn't won at home in 5 tries at Safeco field....Not sure where you got that one

I said he's 10-1 in his last 11 DECISIONS at home. Every start is not a "decision" for the starting pitcher...Last year in the 2nd half he was 10-0 at home. This year 0-1. Combined 10-1.

NO DECISIONS dont have an effect on the pitchers record. FYI the team is 2-2 when he has started for them at home. He hasnt even made 5 starts at home. He only got a decision in 1 of them.

4/24 win 4-3
4/19 win 9-6
4/8 lost 0-3
4/3 lost 4-5

 

[socrstud]

Regardless Derek.

I don't know how you can simply dismiss the fact that Det is playing Minnesota.....line is Det -138 (pretty favorable)

And, Cleveland is playing Seattle which Moyer THIS YEAR has stunk at home.

Look at Livan Hernandez last year....he was great for the Nats, now the nats want him out of the organization....

Hey I'm with you on the fact of who the've played, but they are dominating the lower rungs and I can't see them not doing what they have done....

Players play well one year and than bad the next especially pitchers....

Look at Bronson Arroyo....pitching in the Nat League has been very favorable....or has it....

Boston playing Pre-Season Bronson couldn't pitch to save his life

 

[DerekNJND]

Regardless Derek.

I don't know how you can simply dismiss the fact that Det is playing Minnesota.....line is Det -138 (pretty favorable)

And, Cleveland is playing Seattle which Moyer THIS YEAR has stunk at home.

Detroit and Minnesota arent matched too far apart...-138 is no value

Moyer has a 3.55 ERA this year at home....how does that "stink?"

 

[DerekNJND]

Games seattle played at home where moyer pitched:

4/24 win 4-3
4/19 win 9-6
4/8 lost 0-3
4/3 lost 4-5

He only got a decision in one, the 3-0 loss to oakland...just because he's getting alot of "no decisions" doesnt mean he stinks...as I said, the team is 2-2 when he starts at home, and he is 10-1 overall since the AS break at home

 

[DerekNJND]

if anything, isnt Jake Westbrook pitching for the tribe?

He has a paltry 7.94 ERA in 3 road starts this year...

And you said MOYER stinks?? Rework your statistics please

 

[socrstud]

The fact that Det has scored something like 30 more runs than the twins(while playing them) this year and Rogers is pitching seems like a pretty good deal......Kyle Lohse has a 8. something ERA....

Moyer has a decent ERA....But, at home he has not produced a win in the last five tries.....Going up against a team that has hitters close to 500 in they're line up that is producing the most runs in the American League that on base percentage is in the 350 range....it seem like Clev -108 is pretty decent as well....

I mean I'dd be nervous to take Moyer pitching at home where he hasn't won in 5 games and he is pitching against the best hitting team in the AMERICAN and Major League....If he gets in trouble its over....

Livan Henandez (washingons ace) screwed the game yeseterday for Nats fans....he supposively is a Moyer Like pitcher at home...and this was against the Marlins....I can't imagine what would of happend if it were against the Indians

 

[DerekNJND]

The fact that Det has scored something like 30 more runs than the twins(while playing them) this year and Rogers is pitching seems like a pretty good deal......Kyle Lohse has a 8. something ERA....

Moyer has a decent ERA....But, at home he has not produced a win in the last five tries.....Going up against a team that has hitters close to 500 in they're line up that is producing the most runs in the American League that on base percentage is in the 350 range....it seem like Clev -108 is pretty decent as well....

I mean I'dd be nervous to take Moyer pitching at home where he hasn't won in 5 games and he is pitching against the best hitting team in the AMERICAN and Major League....If he gets in trouble its over....

Dude, im not saying to play the mariners, just that its more a no play, not a strong Cle play.

It doesnt matter if MOYER wins, the fact is the team is 2-2 at home when he pitches. Who cares if the pitcher gets the decision? You want to win $$ right? That has nothing to do with a pitcher's decision. Why do you keep sayin no wins in 5 attempts?? He's only pitched 4 times at home!!

And detroit is very overrated. 30 more runs than the twins? EVERYBODY has more runs than the twins, Detroit is only a middle of the road offensive team...7th out of 14 in the AL

like i said in my first post, i dont like either game really, but if i had to pick one, i'd take detroit...but -138 is not "value"

 

[socrstud]

Sorry he has lost all four at home this year....this is his fifth try I believe...

Derek you are contradicting yourself....who cares if they are beating up on the Twins....The point is to make money...and Rogers pitching against Kyle Lohse, is pretty favorable for the Detroit tigers respectively....

Hey I appreciate the input but your stats were not correct...

1) Detroit has the best ERA in the league...(Dominating teams like the Twins who the play again tonight)

2) Seattle has lost every game this year Moyer has played in at home....

I appreciate your feelings, I just want the stats to be correct

 

[DerekNJND]

Sorry he has lost all four at home this year....this is his fifth try I believe...

Derek you are contradicting yourself....who cares if they are beating up on the Twins....The point is to make money...and Rogers pitching against Kyle Lohse, is pretty favorable for the Detroit tigers respectively....

Hey I appreciate the input but your stats were not correct...

1) Detroit has the best ERA in the league...(Dominating teams like the Twins who the play again tonight)

2) Seattle has lost every game this year Moyer has played in at home....

I appreciate your feelings, I just want the stats to be correct

no you're the one who is incorrect....

I have a link to prove it ESPN MOYER GAMELOG

They lost the first 2 games he started at home, and won the next 2, against tex and the white sox..he only has one decision though so he's 0-1. But the team is 2-2

and i already said Detroit has best ERA in majors...refer to post #6 in this thread

Actually Detroit has the top ERA in baseball so far

both claims were correct....did you eat your "wheaties" today??

 

[socrstud]

Ok the Verdict is DET....

I still think Cleveland is a decent play...but will be a no play for me...

THIS IS WHAT I TOOK: Det $880 to win $650

I hope I chose the right one....I feel like the gap between pitchers Rogers and Lohse is a bigger one than Cleveland and Seattles....and also the gap of play for each is slightly larger...except for batting ave

GLTA I need it on this one!

 

[DerekNJND]

Ok the Verdict is DET....

I still think Cleveland is a decent play...but will be a no play for me...

THIS IS WHAT I TOOK: Det $880 to win $650

I hope I chose the right one....I feel like the gap between pitchers Rogers and Lohse is a bigger one than Cleveland and Seattles....and also the gap of play for each is slightly larger...except for batting ave

GLTA I need it on this one!

u check that link?

here it is again in case you are confused: seattle mariners jamie moyer gamelog (espn)

Do some research before you tell someone their stats are wrong...I"m not trying to embarass you, but i know that by now you realize you are wrong and arent gonna respond. Just dig a little deeper next time..

Good luck on your play

 

[socrstud]

Hey Derek

I'm not embarressed about a thing....Infact both of my teams won....and Jamie Moyer was something like 1-2 going into today, BUT....He has not won a single game at home this year, instead 1 of his losses came at home.

instead, by now I think you were wishing you took either one of my plays....Looks like Moyer pitching against the best hitting team in the majors are exactly what I predicted...Too bad he didn't factor too much again tonight....

And, by the way, my mobile phone said that Moyer hadn't won in the past 4 or 5 tries at Safeco field this season....that's what mobile ESPN said...(preview)
Since I doubled up and I have ~1500 in my account not embarressed about a thing...

I hope this helped today guys...

 

[socrstud]

by the way D....Check out this site...http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/NAS..._gamebygamelog.jsp?playerID=119469&statType=2

Guy has not won in the past 5 home games....including today

 

[socrstud]

I was looking at Cle myself, FYI Moyer 10-1 in last 11 decisions at home, tough trend to buck

i would hardly call detroits pitching dominant but rogers is a notorious hot april/may starter, even in his years in texas...

i dont like either game, maybe an Under in the Detroit game??

Also If I'm wrong than what the heck is that up there....Moyer is 10-1 in his last 11 decisions at home???.....trend is def incorrect....

These must be last year decisions that mean absolutely nothing this year

lets not talk about embaressing people....

GL this season Derek