Note to the wise

[DerekNJND]

bet against your fantasy pitchers...

dont be foolish, of course i mean only your lousy fantasy pitchers...

My worst pitcher in my big money fantasy baseball league is Dan Haren...but I know he's a slow starter and I've made some $$ on ML's against him this year...

Baseball truly is a game of trends IMO, more than any other sport....but the key to any trend is to get on it before it starts and ride it out...by the time someone notices the trend, its probably too late..

Hope everyone 's makin money, I'm a baseball lover, play fantasy in a $200 buy in league annually for the last 4 years..havent bet too much baseball yet, but hopefully after finals i'll be posting some picks

Just some friendly advice as someone who analyzes baseball everyday and rarely bets, but has managed to win my $$ league 3 of the 4 years it has existed, 2 teams to watch

First: Cincy..havent been looking at baseball lines, but oddsmakers have gotta be giving them some love after this 20-9 start. 2nd best record in baseball. GET REAL....bet against the Reds, no offense cincy homers, but its midnight for April's cinderella. This is ESPECIALLY crucial because they have some weaklings coming up on the schedule...detroit, wash, pitt...oddsmakers will be giving them love..take the $$$ the other way and run

Second: Colorado rockies...go against them hardcore..take the -1.5 against them..they've lost 3/4 and with helton gone, that lineup is a JOKE. And obviously pitching isnt the hallmark of the rockies either....without either, that winning record will quickly be erased after the next 9 games: 6 against defending NL champs Houston, and 3 against NL central champs STL. Colorado will lose often and ugly, I doubt they win 3 of the next 9....take it to the bank

good luck all

 

[ChicosBailBonds]

"Second: Colorado rockies...go against them hardcore..take the -1.5 against them..they've lost 3/4 and with helton gone, that lineup is a JOKE."

Food for thought:

Hawpe, Holliday, Sullivan, Atkins, and Marrero over the last six games have hit for a combined .324AVG with 15R and 7HR.

Not blow you out of the water stats until you realize that 4 of those 6 games were @ FLA and @ATL, both really good pitchers parks.

Helton comes back tonight and looks ready to go.

Did an extended write up in another post. Not trying to step on your toes Derek, just want everyone to have as much info. as possible.

GL

 

[DerekNJND]

I see where you are coming from, but what goes up must come down...

Those stats over the last week dont help them tonight...keep that in mind

 

[DerekNJND]

Food for thought:

Hawpe, Holliday, Sullivan, Atkins, and Marrero over the last six games have hit for a combined .324AVG with 15R and 7HR.

Not blow you out of the water stats until you realize that 4 of those 6 games were @ FLA and @ATL, both really good pitchers parks.

I dont care what individuals have done. They are averaging 2 runs a game over the last 4. I'm not saying that those players arent legit hitters, but team performance is what counts here, if Holliday hits 3 HR tonight, the rockies could lose 7-3. Whats the point of individual stats if the team aint scoring??

And florida is not a pitchers park...i dont know what gave you that impression

 

[ChicosBailBonds]

You're right, Colorado could lose tonight, it's just my opinion that they won't.

Below is fact however,

Over last 3 years:

HR's by RHB @ FLA have come in at a -22% clip from league avg.
HR's by LHB @ FLA have been right around league avg.
Runs in FLA -10% from league avg.

FLA has actually been more of a pitchers park than ATL the last three years especially against right handed batters.

GL

 

[DerekNJND]

You're right, Colorado could lose tonight, it's just my opinion that they won't.

Below is fact however,

Over last 3 years:

HR's by RHB @ FLA have come in at a -22% clip from league avg.
HR's by LHB @ FLA have been right around league avg.
Runs in FLA -10% from league avg.

FLA has actually been more of a pitchers park than ATL the last three years especially against right handed batters.

GL

ATL is not a pitchers park..

in 2005, Turner field was the 4th best hitters park....being more of a pitchers park than that is not too impressive :SIB

Runs in FLA's park is not the right statistic to look at. you need to adjust the park's statistics to reflect the influence of the home team.

I can say this in fact, Dolphin Stadium ranks 17th out of 30 for parks in 2006. It is neither hitter nor pitcher friendly..

 

[ChicosBailBonds]

I would think the main thing you would look at is HR's allowed in each park, right.

I'm was not taking into account this years numbers because we are only a month into the season and there is a law of averages, however, I believe over the past 3 seasons only 5 parks have had HR's hit at a higher clip than in FLA:

Jacobs, Kauffman, Petco, RFK and Shea (not in that particular order)

To me, that makes FLA a pitchers park.

I was able to scrape up one bit of information regarding this season. FLA has hit only 7HR at home this year, the second lowest total in the majors. I understand this is largely due to the lack of offense on the home team's squad but I would be interested to know how many HR's by opposing teams have been hit there and where that ranks with other parks.

(Does anyone else have additional numbers supporting or denying or know where to track that info. down)

thanks

thanks

 

[ChicosBailBonds]

sorry, for the last post - meant HR's hit at a lower clip than FLA when referring to Petco, Kauffman, etc.

 

[DerekNJND]

I would think the main thing you would look at is HR's allowed in each park, right.

I'm was not taking into account this years numbers because we are only a month into the season and there is a law of averages, however, I believe over the past 3 seasons only 5 parks have had HR's hit at a higher clip than in FLA:

Jacobs, Kauffman, Petco, RFK and Shea (not in that particular order)

To me, that makes FLA a pitchers park.

total runs are more important than homeruns

 

[ChicosBailBonds]

I still think it's historically a pitchers park whether you evaluate runs or HR's.

Do you have a site that gives the breakdown for runs/hrs over the past couple years for each park. I would like to check it out.

thanks

 

[IE]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

 

[ChicosBailBonds]

Thanks IE2002, appreciate the help.

Derek,

I will give it to you that ATL's park effect was not as great as I thought except for a two year stretch of 2002-2003.

FLA on the other hand is a different story:

This is how they ranked in runs and hr's over the last 5 years:

2005 / HR - 27th Runs - 26th

2004 / HR - 18th Runs - 27th

2003 / HR - 30th Runs - 28th

2002 / HR - 29th Runs - 19th

2001 / HR - 19th Runs - 24th

You can disagree but that's a pitchers park to me.

 

[DerekNJND]

Thanks IE2002, appreciate the help.

Derek,

I will give it to you that ATL's park effect was not as great as I thought except for a two year stretch of 2002-2003.

FLA on the other hand is a different story:

This is how they ranked in runs and hr's over the last 5 years:

2005 / HR - 27th Runs - 26th

2004 / HR - 18th Runs - 27th

2003 / HR - 30th Runs - 28th

2002 / HR - 29th Runs - 19th

2001 / HR - 19th Runs - 24th

You can disagree but that's a pitchers park to me.

the marlins never had the greatest offense in the world during those periods either, and they had quite the pitching staff. Like I said you cant go by overall stats....

this is from Baseball HQ:

Baseball HQ shows it as neutral for LHB, suppressing runs in general by 10%, RHB averages by 5%, and RHB HR's by 22%. (2003-2005)

Coors on the other hand increases runs by 33%, LHB ave by 15% LHB HR by 17% RHB ave by 26% and RHB HR by 18%, MinuteMaid has the biggest splits in the NL, supressing LHB power by 22%, enhancing RHB power by 33%

The point is it doesnt really favor pitchers or hitters to a great extreme. A 10% dimunition in total runs is noticeable, but as Baseball HQ says, Coors INCREASES runs by over 30%. That is a subsantial increase.

Parks that affect runs by 10% either way arent really hitters or pitchers parks. They are NEUTRAL. There is a noticeable (better than 20%) decrease in HR for RHB, but a ballparks' offense isnt judged just by HR. Total runs are the barometer by which parks are judged, and why coors is always #1 for hitters. Its the total run increase not just the HR effect

 

[DerekNJND]

going back to the original point you were trying to make, that the rockies numbers are that much better because they just played a 3 game series in FLA??

The rockies hit 3 HR in 28 innings at Florida last week. How is that a "great achievement" in a pitcher's park?? Only 2 were by righties, so how did they "overcome" the "tremendous disadvantage" of Dolphin stadium?

 

[ChicosBailBonds]

Derek,

I could take you outside and show you that the sky is blue and you would swear up and down it was red.

You win, it's neutral!

 

[DerekNJND]

Derek,

I could take you outside and show you that the sky is blue and you would swear up and down it was red.

You win, it's neutral!

you said the rockies offense was red hot because of how impressive they were in 2 pitchers parks last week.

Atl is as far from a pitcher's park as can be, and the rocks hit 3 HR in 28 innings in FLA..then they scored 2 runs per game over the next 4. You call that impressive?

They did get lucky tonight though...

 

[ChicosBailBonds]

This will be the last thing I say on this:

First off, go back and look at the post, I never said anyone was "red hot". I simply posted some offensive numbers for a handful of the Rockies players over the last 6 games saying that they were swinging the bats well over that period half of those games being played in what I considered pitchers parks.

I conceeded that ATL did not have quite the effect I thought however, and twist it any way you want, FLA to me is a pitchers park and I think if you pole most of the people in this forum, they would agree with me.

I'm not sure why in post #13 you went off about the effects of Coors field, I don't recall ever debating the effects of Coors with you.

If you are looking for a fight, please go pick it somewhere else. All I'm trying to do is pick winners and give what I think is decent information and advice. Take if for what it's worth.

Have a good night.

 

[Jayhawk_Thor]

Chico, your right. No use trying to reason with him...

 

[el JB]

i just looove the duel going to sleep..zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz