Wednesday's Thoughts

[Wise and Wiser]

*Will the Orioles ever beat Boston? They have lost 13 straight to the Red Sox.

*The White Sox are the best team in baseball. Will they lose two in a row to the lowly Devil Rays? I'm sure everyone will be betting on Chicago tonight.

*Both Cincy and Houston got off to great starts this season. They are paying for it now. Neither of these teams is that good. Houston is better than Cincy, but Rodriguez, Buchholz and Nieve aren't going to get it done over the long haul.

*The Tigers are for real! They will contend for a playoff spot all season long. Their biggest weakness is closer Rodney.

*I can't win betting on Toronto. When I bet on the Jays they lose, when I bet against them they win. Signs of a .500 team in my opinion.

 

[s_dooley24]

Garland has been shaky for the White Sox. I am going to stay off this game and if they lose look to load up on Vazquez and the Sox thursday

Also, I think the Os have a decent shot tonight to stop the bleeding

 

[Keith 1]

I posted in this thread yesterday and it worked out for me, so I am back again today. Just like yesterday when the public was on the under in the Yankees game and I said it would go over, today the public is big-time on the over in the Indians/Royals game. Ask yourself this, the Royals have gone over the total in their last 5 games, the last 3 head to head match-ups have gone over the total, and you have 2 pitchers going tonight whose ERA's are both in the high 5's. And yet, the total is set at 9.5. There are other reasons as well, but I really like the under in this game.

 

[Wise and Wiser]

Keith, I like the way you think. You will make money in the long run by betting against the obvious. Good luck with your play!

 

[Jayhawk_Thor]

Wise, read this thread every day, thanks for starting it...

I would add this about the KC/Cle game: KC has played Cleveland very, very well this season, and Affeldt, when he is on, is a very, very good pitcher. I think KC matches up well in this one, especially as a value play.

-Santana has been dominate over his last four starts.

Couple contentions with some things you said earlier though, Wise. I think Buchholz is going to be a stud. Kids got a ton of talent. You're right about the two others though. As with the Tigers, closer IS their weakness, but Todd Jones gets most chances to blow things there... Rodney has been in there only during injury/fatigue periods for Jones... The only reason I mention this, is that if I were betting Detroit and they had a one run ninth inning lead, I would 10,000 times rather see them bring in Rodney to close it out (and honestly, that said, I would rather see Zumaya than either of 'em).

GL today guys!

 

[Wise and Wiser]

Thanks for correcting me Thor. I forgot about Jones being back in that role now. Buchholz is talented, I'm not denying that fact, but he will hit the wall sometime after the All-Star break. A young pitcher doesn't want to pitch in that park when he hits the wall! Good luck bro.

 

[Keith 1]

Keith, I like the way you think. You will make money in the long run by betting against the obvious. Good luck with your play!

thank you Wise--appreciate the compliment, especially coming from a fine capper such as yourself. Elsewhere, I refer to these as my "don't make sense" plays, and I have had success with them both last year and this year.

 

[thisisbad]

The other thing to point out about the KC over is last night it took a 3 runs in the bottom of the ninth by Clev (the last two via a walk off homer) just to get it over. Makes me leary of playin over tonight.

 

[Wise and Wiser]

Thanks Keith! Something else to consider when betting in the near future. Check out these road records:

Detroit 16-7
Texas 11-6
Oakland 11-9
San Diego 12-6
Philly 10-5
Colorado 12-9
Cincy 11-8

The White Sox, the best team in my opinion, are 11-8 on the road. I would be very careful about betting any of the above teams on the road anytime soon. Detroit might be the only team on that list to finish the season above .500 overall. Betting against Texas, San Diego, Philly, and Cincy tonight may net you a profit.

 

[IntenseOperator]

White Sox have monster numbers favoring Overs, yet this one dropped for a bit, even some (9-)'s still out there. Garland on the mound, TB's pen, 5000 Overs in a row from each team

Under 10

 

[Keith 1]

I posted in this thread yesterday and it worked out for me, so I am back again today. Just like yesterday when the public was on the under in the Yankees game and I said it would go over, today the public is big-time on the over in the Indians/Royals game. Ask yourself this, the Royals have gone over the total in their last 5 games, the last 3 head to head match-ups have gone over the total, and you have 2 pitchers going tonight whose ERA's are both in the high 5's. And yet, the total is set at 9.5. There are other reasons as well, but I really like the under in this game.

2 days in a row. Gonna look for this thread again tomorrow.