BEGINNING THURSDAY MAY 25
Tampa Bay at Boston (4) 25th, 26th, 27th, 28th
The Devil Rays may finish last again in the AL East this year, but they?ve been playing respectable baseball (6-3, +$375 last 10 days) and they could prove problematic for the Red Sox this weekend. Boston has split the first six head to head contests and lost money in the process (-$210) and they?ve not been effective against lefthanders (-$285 with only 4.6 runs per game). Mark Hendrickson (+$145, 3.57) and the remarkable Scott Kazmir (+$880, 2.39) have emerged as key components of the Tampa Bay rotation, and both are slated to see action at Fenway. Our hunch is at least one of them will come through. BEST BET: Hendrickson/Kazmir.
Oakland at Texas (4) 25th, 26th, 27th, 28th
The Rangers are getting decent pitching for a change, and they?ve been hitting the ball much better than the A?s, scoring close to a full run more per game. They?ve done their best work against lefthanders this year (7-3, +$435 with 6.0 runs per game), so we?ll go against Brad Halsey and Barry Zito when those two take the mound. Texas has also gotten reliable efforts from southpaws John Koronka (+$240) and given Oakland?s 4-6 mark against lefthanders (-$245 with only 3.6 runs per game), we?ll make him a play whatever the opposition. BEST BET: Koronka/Rangers vs. lefthanders.
BEGINNING FRIDAY MAY 26
Atlanta at Chicago Cubs (3) 26th, 27th, 28th
The Cubs are 6-0 in night games at Wrigley Field, but all three games in this series are afternoon affairs, and Chicago has been a disaster in those (4-10, -$865). The team has scored the fewest runs in the league (only 3.6 per game), and they?ve fallen completely from the mix of contenders in the NL Central. But the Braves don?t inspire much confidence outside of Turner Field (10-16, -$705 as a visitor), and their pitching staff continues to flounder. We?ll stay away from this matchup for now. BEST BET: None.
L.A. Dodgers at Washington (3) 26th, 27th, 28th
The Dodgers are playing well enough to be serious contenders in the increasingly interesting NL West (7-3, +$390 last 10 days with 5.9 runs per game and a 2.71 ERA among starters). They should be able to take the measure of the beleaguered Nationals, who check in with a pitiful 5-11 (-$830) record at RFK. LA comes at you with an array of veteran righthanders who are enjoying unexpectedly strong starts so far. Washington is also getting harmed by an unreliable bullpen (4.39 ERA) so it?s hard to see the home team doing better than a single victory here. BEST BET: Dodgers in all games.
Milwaukee at Philadelphia (3) 26th, 27th, 28th
The Phillies have cooled off, so the Brewers would be tempting to take as underdogs throughout this series. But they?ve fared rather poorly on the road overall (only 6-12, -$515), and the Philadelphia rotation is predominantly righthanded, so caution is advised. The one pitcher we can?t pass up is Milwaukee?s ace southpaw Chris Capuano (2.80 in nine starts), who should throttle the home team?s attack without much difficulty (Phillies -$290 vs. lefties with 3.9 runs per game). BEST BET: Capuano.
Houston at Pittsburgh (3) 26th, 27th, 28th
It?s hard to believe considering their lousy record, but the Pirates have posted an unlikely 10-2 (+$995 with 6.0 runs per game)) mark in night games vs. righthanders at PNC Park. The Astros have drifted back to the pack in the NL Central, but will no doubt command high prices in this series nonetheless. They are only 6-11 (-$550) as visitors, so grab the price when the appropriate situation arises. BEST BET: Pirates vs. righthanders in night games.
Arizona at Cincinnati (3) 26th, 27th, 28th
Both these teams are off to surprisingly strong starts, but neither ranks particularly high in terms of pitching (Arizona 4.38 ERA, Cincy 4.53). And while the Diamondbacks have the highest team BA in the NL (.281), the Reds have scored almost exactly the same number of total runs. The Arizona starters have been getting hammered in recent days (7.22 ERA last 10), so we?ll take a shot with the home team as long as ace Brandon Webb (2.44 ERA) is on the bench. BEST BET: Reds unless opposed by Webb.
N.Y. Mets at Florida (3) 26th, 27th, 28th
Tremendous disparity in talent between these two NL East rivals (3.87 team ERA for NY vs. a league worst 5.15 for the Marlins) so it?s going to be hard to use the home underdog in this one. Florida is now 11-31 overall (-$1605) so this is an opportunity for the Mets to improve their 12-10 road record. Martinez and Glavine will be prohibitively priced, but the second tier of NY hurlers should be available at a more reasonable cost. If they are, we?ll take a shot on the visitor. BEST BET: Mets at -155 or less.
St. Louis at San Diego (3) 26th, 27th, 28th
The Padres have cooled off considerably after that hot streak that ended last week, and now face a daunting task against a Cardinals? team that has looked very sharp in recent days (7-2, +$330 last 10). St. Louis has the best pitching staff in the league (3.44 team ERA), and they?ll be taking on the team with the NL 2nd lowest team BA (.248) at Petco Park this weekend. The Padres are only 8-11 vs. righthanders at home (-$665) while the Cardinals are 20-8 (+$800) vs. righties overall. Hopefully the prices on the visitor will stay reasonable. BEST BET: Cardinals when righty meets righty.
Colorado at San Francisco (3) 26th, 27th, 28th
The Giants are coming off their best stretch of the season (7-3, +$475 last 10 days with 6.3 runs per game and a 2.81 ERA among starters), but we?re impressed with the Colorado pitching this year. They?ve got the 4th lowest ERA in the league (4.05) and that?s despite playing their home games at Coors Field, which traditionally inflates a staff?s numbers. They?ve turned a nice profit on the road (+$730) so we?ll go with Jeff Francis (3.07 ERA in nine starts), who will likely start the series opener on Friday. BEST BET: Francis.
Cleveland at Detroit (3) 26th, 27th, 28th
The Tigers? pitching staff is far outperforming what anyone could have imagined (3.26 team ERA, best in baseball) and the result is the best record in MLB (+$1520). The Indians hit the ball well (.291 team BA), but they?ve dropped 5 of 7 to Detroit already (-$400) and they are a disappointing 9-12 (-$690) on the road. We?re still leery of taking the Tigers vs. lefthanders (9-2 record but only 3.6 runs per game) so we?ll avoid the Tribe?s southpaws, and focus on the rest of the rotation. BEST BET: Tigers vs. lefthanders.
Kansas City at N.Y. Yankees (3) 26th, 27th, 28th
The Royals visited Yankee Stadium back in April and the result was a predictable three game sweep by the Bombers. KC has lost their last nine in a row (-$900), their pitching is the worst in baseball (5.91 team ERA) and they?ve scored the fewest runs of any team this year. The Yankees are reeling after sustaining multiple injuries to key personnel, and prices could get close to 3 to 1 in some of these games. We?re not willing to lay those numbers on the battered Bombers, but the Royals are unusable at any price. BEST BET: None.
Chicago W. Sox at Toronto (3) 26th, 27th, 28th
The Blue Jays can score some runs, but their pitching is suspect (4.87 team ERA), with Gustavo Chacin joining A.J. Burnett on the DL. That leaves Ted Lilly as the only lefty this weekend and he?s coming off two shaky starts (10.29 ERA). The White Sox are a sizzling 21-6 vs. righties (+$1110), so we?ll look to capitalize on that success in these matchups. BEST BET:White Sox vs. righthanders.
Seattle at Minnesota (3) 26th, 27th, 28th
Both these teams are struggling to rise above mediocrity, but the Minnesota pitching staff has been horrible (5.40 team ERA, 3rd worst in the league). Kyle Lohse was sent to the minors, and the team hopes the additions of highly regarded righthanders Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser to the rotation will have an impact. But Seattle can handle righthanders (5.3 runs per game) so caution is advised. The only time we like the home team is with Johan Santana on the mound (Mariners 4-10, -$680 vs. lefties), otherwise we?ll look to the visitor. BEST BET: Santana/Mariners vs. righthanders.
Baltimore at L.A. Angels (3) 26th, 27th, 28th
The Orioles are floundering below .500 again in 2006, beset by the usual pitching woes (5.55 team ERA), but the real story is the collapse of the Angels. LA has the 2nd worst record in the AL (only 17-27, -$1225), and they?ve already lost 3 of 4 head to head matchups with Baltimore. We?d be more enthusiastic about the visitor were it not for their dismal 6-12 (-$580) road record. We?ll limit ourselves to a play on left Eric Bedard, given the home team?s anemic run production vs. southpaws (3.3 per game). BEST BET: Bedard.
Tampa Bay at Boston (4) 25th, 26th, 27th, 28th
The Devil Rays may finish last again in the AL East this year, but they?ve been playing respectable baseball (6-3, +$375 last 10 days) and they could prove problematic for the Red Sox this weekend. Boston has split the first six head to head contests and lost money in the process (-$210) and they?ve not been effective against lefthanders (-$285 with only 4.6 runs per game). Mark Hendrickson (+$145, 3.57) and the remarkable Scott Kazmir (+$880, 2.39) have emerged as key components of the Tampa Bay rotation, and both are slated to see action at Fenway. Our hunch is at least one of them will come through. BEST BET: Hendrickson/Kazmir.
Oakland at Texas (4) 25th, 26th, 27th, 28th
The Rangers are getting decent pitching for a change, and they?ve been hitting the ball much better than the A?s, scoring close to a full run more per game. They?ve done their best work against lefthanders this year (7-3, +$435 with 6.0 runs per game), so we?ll go against Brad Halsey and Barry Zito when those two take the mound. Texas has also gotten reliable efforts from southpaws John Koronka (+$240) and given Oakland?s 4-6 mark against lefthanders (-$245 with only 3.6 runs per game), we?ll make him a play whatever the opposition. BEST BET: Koronka/Rangers vs. lefthanders.
BEGINNING FRIDAY MAY 26
Atlanta at Chicago Cubs (3) 26th, 27th, 28th
The Cubs are 6-0 in night games at Wrigley Field, but all three games in this series are afternoon affairs, and Chicago has been a disaster in those (4-10, -$865). The team has scored the fewest runs in the league (only 3.6 per game), and they?ve fallen completely from the mix of contenders in the NL Central. But the Braves don?t inspire much confidence outside of Turner Field (10-16, -$705 as a visitor), and their pitching staff continues to flounder. We?ll stay away from this matchup for now. BEST BET: None.
L.A. Dodgers at Washington (3) 26th, 27th, 28th
The Dodgers are playing well enough to be serious contenders in the increasingly interesting NL West (7-3, +$390 last 10 days with 5.9 runs per game and a 2.71 ERA among starters). They should be able to take the measure of the beleaguered Nationals, who check in with a pitiful 5-11 (-$830) record at RFK. LA comes at you with an array of veteran righthanders who are enjoying unexpectedly strong starts so far. Washington is also getting harmed by an unreliable bullpen (4.39 ERA) so it?s hard to see the home team doing better than a single victory here. BEST BET: Dodgers in all games.
Milwaukee at Philadelphia (3) 26th, 27th, 28th
The Phillies have cooled off, so the Brewers would be tempting to take as underdogs throughout this series. But they?ve fared rather poorly on the road overall (only 6-12, -$515), and the Philadelphia rotation is predominantly righthanded, so caution is advised. The one pitcher we can?t pass up is Milwaukee?s ace southpaw Chris Capuano (2.80 in nine starts), who should throttle the home team?s attack without much difficulty (Phillies -$290 vs. lefties with 3.9 runs per game). BEST BET: Capuano.
Houston at Pittsburgh (3) 26th, 27th, 28th
It?s hard to believe considering their lousy record, but the Pirates have posted an unlikely 10-2 (+$995 with 6.0 runs per game)) mark in night games vs. righthanders at PNC Park. The Astros have drifted back to the pack in the NL Central, but will no doubt command high prices in this series nonetheless. They are only 6-11 (-$550) as visitors, so grab the price when the appropriate situation arises. BEST BET: Pirates vs. righthanders in night games.
Arizona at Cincinnati (3) 26th, 27th, 28th
Both these teams are off to surprisingly strong starts, but neither ranks particularly high in terms of pitching (Arizona 4.38 ERA, Cincy 4.53). And while the Diamondbacks have the highest team BA in the NL (.281), the Reds have scored almost exactly the same number of total runs. The Arizona starters have been getting hammered in recent days (7.22 ERA last 10), so we?ll take a shot with the home team as long as ace Brandon Webb (2.44 ERA) is on the bench. BEST BET: Reds unless opposed by Webb.
N.Y. Mets at Florida (3) 26th, 27th, 28th
Tremendous disparity in talent between these two NL East rivals (3.87 team ERA for NY vs. a league worst 5.15 for the Marlins) so it?s going to be hard to use the home underdog in this one. Florida is now 11-31 overall (-$1605) so this is an opportunity for the Mets to improve their 12-10 road record. Martinez and Glavine will be prohibitively priced, but the second tier of NY hurlers should be available at a more reasonable cost. If they are, we?ll take a shot on the visitor. BEST BET: Mets at -155 or less.
St. Louis at San Diego (3) 26th, 27th, 28th
The Padres have cooled off considerably after that hot streak that ended last week, and now face a daunting task against a Cardinals? team that has looked very sharp in recent days (7-2, +$330 last 10). St. Louis has the best pitching staff in the league (3.44 team ERA), and they?ll be taking on the team with the NL 2nd lowest team BA (.248) at Petco Park this weekend. The Padres are only 8-11 vs. righthanders at home (-$665) while the Cardinals are 20-8 (+$800) vs. righties overall. Hopefully the prices on the visitor will stay reasonable. BEST BET: Cardinals when righty meets righty.
Colorado at San Francisco (3) 26th, 27th, 28th
The Giants are coming off their best stretch of the season (7-3, +$475 last 10 days with 6.3 runs per game and a 2.81 ERA among starters), but we?re impressed with the Colorado pitching this year. They?ve got the 4th lowest ERA in the league (4.05) and that?s despite playing their home games at Coors Field, which traditionally inflates a staff?s numbers. They?ve turned a nice profit on the road (+$730) so we?ll go with Jeff Francis (3.07 ERA in nine starts), who will likely start the series opener on Friday. BEST BET: Francis.
Cleveland at Detroit (3) 26th, 27th, 28th
The Tigers? pitching staff is far outperforming what anyone could have imagined (3.26 team ERA, best in baseball) and the result is the best record in MLB (+$1520). The Indians hit the ball well (.291 team BA), but they?ve dropped 5 of 7 to Detroit already (-$400) and they are a disappointing 9-12 (-$690) on the road. We?re still leery of taking the Tigers vs. lefthanders (9-2 record but only 3.6 runs per game) so we?ll avoid the Tribe?s southpaws, and focus on the rest of the rotation. BEST BET: Tigers vs. lefthanders.
Kansas City at N.Y. Yankees (3) 26th, 27th, 28th
The Royals visited Yankee Stadium back in April and the result was a predictable three game sweep by the Bombers. KC has lost their last nine in a row (-$900), their pitching is the worst in baseball (5.91 team ERA) and they?ve scored the fewest runs of any team this year. The Yankees are reeling after sustaining multiple injuries to key personnel, and prices could get close to 3 to 1 in some of these games. We?re not willing to lay those numbers on the battered Bombers, but the Royals are unusable at any price. BEST BET: None.
Chicago W. Sox at Toronto (3) 26th, 27th, 28th
The Blue Jays can score some runs, but their pitching is suspect (4.87 team ERA), with Gustavo Chacin joining A.J. Burnett on the DL. That leaves Ted Lilly as the only lefty this weekend and he?s coming off two shaky starts (10.29 ERA). The White Sox are a sizzling 21-6 vs. righties (+$1110), so we?ll look to capitalize on that success in these matchups. BEST BET:White Sox vs. righthanders.
Seattle at Minnesota (3) 26th, 27th, 28th
Both these teams are struggling to rise above mediocrity, but the Minnesota pitching staff has been horrible (5.40 team ERA, 3rd worst in the league). Kyle Lohse was sent to the minors, and the team hopes the additions of highly regarded righthanders Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser to the rotation will have an impact. But Seattle can handle righthanders (5.3 runs per game) so caution is advised. The only time we like the home team is with Johan Santana on the mound (Mariners 4-10, -$680 vs. lefties), otherwise we?ll look to the visitor. BEST BET: Santana/Mariners vs. righthanders.
Baltimore at L.A. Angels (3) 26th, 27th, 28th
The Orioles are floundering below .500 again in 2006, beset by the usual pitching woes (5.55 team ERA), but the real story is the collapse of the Angels. LA has the 2nd worst record in the AL (only 17-27, -$1225), and they?ve already lost 3 of 4 head to head matchups with Baltimore. We?d be more enthusiastic about the visitor were it not for their dismal 6-12 (-$580) road record. We?ll limit ourselves to a play on left Eric Bedard, given the home team?s anemic run production vs. southpaws (3.3 per game). BEST BET: Bedard.
