NBA Finals talk
- Thread starter pt1gard
- Start date
one advantage mavs have is GP plays for heat, hes been horrible for years ... yeah somehow i saw him hit a few big shots in playoffs, but his footwork makes him appear old most every night ... never liked him as person when he played here, and Im think hes big liability
I think Dallas is the better team. However, the Heat seem to have hit their stride. Is this due to the Pistons being overrated... I don't know. Remember, this Heat team struggled against the Bulls in the first round. They had trouble with the guard line up...
Dallas in 6
Dallas in 6
Okay here?s my War and Peace on the finals. I live in Dallas and have seen way too many Maverick games in the past couple of years. I'm in no way biased for or against, as unfortunately I'm a Rockets fan. Every previous year when the Mavs where in the playoffs, everybody said "this is the year" and I said, there is no way in hell because Nelly?s no defense ball was a enormous joke. I would have died of shock if they would have won a title. About the 4th game this year realized Dallas was actually a contender, as they played defense, and had extraordinary depth. Miami I haven?t seen play near as much this year, but enough to give some match up analysis. So here?s the breakdown.
5. Shaq/Mourning against Dampier/Diop
Umm let?s see. This is an ass kicking of epic proportions. Even old Zo by himself can match up with these two. Avery only wishes he could sit Dampier the whole series like he did against Phoenix. Diop flying around tipping the ball up for an offensive rebound isn?t going to work, because jumping over Shaq?s back is a little different that jumping over Boris Diaw. This matchup is one sided. Dampier?s play especially on defense will be a key, but how much the refs let Shaq get away with down low, is probably the biggest factor in the series. If he?s not getting called for offensive fouls for bulling his way through the Mavericks, it could be the Diesel show.
4 Haslem/Walker versus Nowitzki/Van Horn
Statistically Nowitzki and Dallas have a pretty big advantage at the 4. Nowitzki will get his, but I think the head case Antione Walker is probably going to determine this series. If he can take the ball to the basket and make someone (anyone) guard him and take decent shots it will be huge. Especially if he can drive on Dirk. Making Dirk play defense is key. Some of the games I recall the Mavericks having defensive troubles were against teams that had a decent sized 4 that could score. See Elton Brand, Ron Artest, Rasheed Wallace, etc. Phoenix had no bigs, and Diaw still went off, against San Antonio Tim Duncan was strong, but Bruce Bowen played the four most of the series, and well him taking Dirk to the basket is a joke. Even with Dirk going for 40 each night, if Miami forwards do the job, they may lose all the battles, but affect the games enough to win the war.
3. Howard/Stackhouse versus Posey
I realize that Walker usually starts at the three for Miami. But I think Posey is going to have to play alot of minutes this series at the 3. Riley will have to insert him for defense to stay with Stackhouse and Howard. This is where Dallas? depth and versatility starts to show. Both Howard and Stack can play the 2 or 3, they can both defend, and even if they get in foul trouble, Dallas can bring in Daniels or Griffin to play defense and hold the line. Really think Dallas has a huge advantage here.
2. Stackhouse/Terry/Howard versus D. Wade
Wade is as good a two as there is right now. On offense Wade will get his points, but I really think Dallas will scheme to stop him more than anyone. Dallas will most likely put Howard on him for defense. While not a lock down defender Howard is the best the Mavericks have. Wade?s defense is very good for his size. He?s definitely fast enough to hang with Terry, and he?s been chasing Ben Gordon and Rip Hamilton around so this out to be a vacation. I believe Dallas will try to play as much Howard/Stackhouse at the 2/3 that they can, forcing Wade to guard a bigger man. Even as good as Wade is, I think this match up is key to Dallas winning.
1. Terry/Harris versus Payton/Williams
Bigger mismatch here than most would realize. Terry is a scorer, and Harris has foot speed as good as any in the NBA. Harris was a key to this year?s neutralizing of Tony Parker, who in previous years carved the Dallas defense to shreds. Size is an issue for the mavericks, which most teams cannot take advantage of, but Payton might have some of his old back to the basket game hidden somewhere, interesting to see if that comes out. Still think Dallas has a marked advantage here also.
Coaching. Well I think Avery has done wonders for the Mavericks, but Riley has been there enough times, and I don?t think he?s suffering from the Bill Parcell?s/Joe Gibbs syndrome of trying old shit that doesn?t work over and over again. Avery does make good game to game adjustments but Riley will eat him up in game. Riley will actually probably have a big advantage in the first couple of games. So if the Heat do not win one of the first two, you can probably take that as a sign and forget it. If it wasn?t for Dallas? athleticism and ability to go 11 or 12 deep versus Miami?s eight then I?d say this would be the deciding factor. But Dallas? talent will cover a lot of Avery?s mistakes.
Intangibles. Well I don?t know really know how I?m supposed to explain intangibles if they are intangible. So I?ll talk about what I think are weaknesses. I can?t really speak to Miami as I haven't seen them play as much, but I think Miami?s point guard is going to end up hurting them. Just have a bad feeling about Williams and Payton. Also think Dallas will try to pack things in and make everybody shoot from outside especially whoever?s playing point and Posey. And regardless of statistics, that also doesn?t inspire confidence. Dallas on the other hand has a couple of problems. First and foremost, their offense still looks like a pick-up game on Saturday. They get away with it because, Dirk, Stackhouse and Terry can beat their men one on one most of the time. However they have no real offense, and if you look at their assists per field goal ratio it is the lowest in the league. Their shot selection is often poor and they don?t take it to the whole near enough. With Miami?s advantage inside, that will only get worse this series. Dallas will definitely be taking outside shots, the question is will they be good shots or the flailing fade aways of years past.
Overall this should be a good series. I wouldn?t put too much stock in the games they played this year, as the first game Shaq wasn?t there, and the 2nd game the Mavericks shot lights out, and the Heat packed it in. When a team shoots 70% from behind the arc you probably aren?t going to beat them no matter what. I believe Miami has advantage at the 4 and 5 even with Dirk, and I believe Dallas has an advantage at the 1 and 3. The shooting guards and Antione Walker will determine this series. If Dallas? two can contain or score with Wade they win, if Antione Walker can put offensive pressure on Dallas and not go 2-14 they will likely win. I think Dallas will scheme to stop Wade, and Miami will scheme to make Dallas take outside shots especially when Devin Harris is on the floor.
I hate to say this but I think officiating is going to come into play more this series than any other series I can remember. Not so much that one team is getting an unfair advantage (which is highly possible), but more of how they call the games. If they let them play, Miami will have a much better chance of winning. Shaq and the big men being able to use the muscle down low, Miami?s slower guards being able to use their hands, and basically it?ll slow the tempo into a half court X?s and O?s affair. If they call the game tight (or if Dick Bavetta is anywhere near the building), and ticky tack fouls are being called, go ahead and pencil in the Mavericks as your 2005/2006 champions, as they?ll crank it up and run and gun, and no matter how many fouls the Mavericks get, it?ll hurt the Heat much much worse.
While I know the Mavericks are more athletic and the West is stronger, and if they lined up to play a bunch of games of one on one, the mavericks would win 90% of those, for some reason I think the Mavericks will need the refs help to win this one. I just have watched a lot of basketball since the Bulls won their first title with MJ in 90-91. And since then history says the Heat have an advantage. The MVP of the finals has been either a center or a two guard every year except 2004 when Chauncy Billups won it, and that year Richard Hamilton scored more points than Billups in the series. With Shaq and Duane Wade that bodes well for Miami. Second, as far back as I can remember (which pretty much goes back to 1980), the team that won the title, had one of two types of offense. Either an inside/outside game with a dominant center, and some decent perimeter players, or a sophisticated offense such as the Triangle, that uses every possible spacing, screen and backdoor cut possible. While I wouldn?t really describe Miami as a perfect scenario of either even with Shaq, they are light years closer than Dallas to either scenario.
Will be an interesting series, I have a feeling any wins Miami get?s will be close. Dallas? wins will be blowout affairs. If Dallas strings together some good shooting nights, this thing may be done quick, but if they don?t and Miami get?s one of the first two I think Dallas is in trouble.
For purely informational purposes I'm going with Miami in 6. But for betting purposes I think Miami +188 for Game 1 has value , as if they are going to win one on the Mavericks home floor which they would have to do to win the series (which is +139) this is likely to be it, as Riley will come up with something, that will throw Avery into fits, and it'll be game two before Dallas figures it out.
5. Shaq/Mourning against Dampier/Diop
Umm let?s see. This is an ass kicking of epic proportions. Even old Zo by himself can match up with these two. Avery only wishes he could sit Dampier the whole series like he did against Phoenix. Diop flying around tipping the ball up for an offensive rebound isn?t going to work, because jumping over Shaq?s back is a little different that jumping over Boris Diaw. This matchup is one sided. Dampier?s play especially on defense will be a key, but how much the refs let Shaq get away with down low, is probably the biggest factor in the series. If he?s not getting called for offensive fouls for bulling his way through the Mavericks, it could be the Diesel show.
4 Haslem/Walker versus Nowitzki/Van Horn
Statistically Nowitzki and Dallas have a pretty big advantage at the 4. Nowitzki will get his, but I think the head case Antione Walker is probably going to determine this series. If he can take the ball to the basket and make someone (anyone) guard him and take decent shots it will be huge. Especially if he can drive on Dirk. Making Dirk play defense is key. Some of the games I recall the Mavericks having defensive troubles were against teams that had a decent sized 4 that could score. See Elton Brand, Ron Artest, Rasheed Wallace, etc. Phoenix had no bigs, and Diaw still went off, against San Antonio Tim Duncan was strong, but Bruce Bowen played the four most of the series, and well him taking Dirk to the basket is a joke. Even with Dirk going for 40 each night, if Miami forwards do the job, they may lose all the battles, but affect the games enough to win the war.
3. Howard/Stackhouse versus Posey
I realize that Walker usually starts at the three for Miami. But I think Posey is going to have to play alot of minutes this series at the 3. Riley will have to insert him for defense to stay with Stackhouse and Howard. This is where Dallas? depth and versatility starts to show. Both Howard and Stack can play the 2 or 3, they can both defend, and even if they get in foul trouble, Dallas can bring in Daniels or Griffin to play defense and hold the line. Really think Dallas has a huge advantage here.
2. Stackhouse/Terry/Howard versus D. Wade
Wade is as good a two as there is right now. On offense Wade will get his points, but I really think Dallas will scheme to stop him more than anyone. Dallas will most likely put Howard on him for defense. While not a lock down defender Howard is the best the Mavericks have. Wade?s defense is very good for his size. He?s definitely fast enough to hang with Terry, and he?s been chasing Ben Gordon and Rip Hamilton around so this out to be a vacation. I believe Dallas will try to play as much Howard/Stackhouse at the 2/3 that they can, forcing Wade to guard a bigger man. Even as good as Wade is, I think this match up is key to Dallas winning.
1. Terry/Harris versus Payton/Williams
Bigger mismatch here than most would realize. Terry is a scorer, and Harris has foot speed as good as any in the NBA. Harris was a key to this year?s neutralizing of Tony Parker, who in previous years carved the Dallas defense to shreds. Size is an issue for the mavericks, which most teams cannot take advantage of, but Payton might have some of his old back to the basket game hidden somewhere, interesting to see if that comes out. Still think Dallas has a marked advantage here also.
Coaching. Well I think Avery has done wonders for the Mavericks, but Riley has been there enough times, and I don?t think he?s suffering from the Bill Parcell?s/Joe Gibbs syndrome of trying old shit that doesn?t work over and over again. Avery does make good game to game adjustments but Riley will eat him up in game. Riley will actually probably have a big advantage in the first couple of games. So if the Heat do not win one of the first two, you can probably take that as a sign and forget it. If it wasn?t for Dallas? athleticism and ability to go 11 or 12 deep versus Miami?s eight then I?d say this would be the deciding factor. But Dallas? talent will cover a lot of Avery?s mistakes.
Intangibles. Well I don?t know really know how I?m supposed to explain intangibles if they are intangible. So I?ll talk about what I think are weaknesses. I can?t really speak to Miami as I haven't seen them play as much, but I think Miami?s point guard is going to end up hurting them. Just have a bad feeling about Williams and Payton. Also think Dallas will try to pack things in and make everybody shoot from outside especially whoever?s playing point and Posey. And regardless of statistics, that also doesn?t inspire confidence. Dallas on the other hand has a couple of problems. First and foremost, their offense still looks like a pick-up game on Saturday. They get away with it because, Dirk, Stackhouse and Terry can beat their men one on one most of the time. However they have no real offense, and if you look at their assists per field goal ratio it is the lowest in the league. Their shot selection is often poor and they don?t take it to the whole near enough. With Miami?s advantage inside, that will only get worse this series. Dallas will definitely be taking outside shots, the question is will they be good shots or the flailing fade aways of years past.
Overall this should be a good series. I wouldn?t put too much stock in the games they played this year, as the first game Shaq wasn?t there, and the 2nd game the Mavericks shot lights out, and the Heat packed it in. When a team shoots 70% from behind the arc you probably aren?t going to beat them no matter what. I believe Miami has advantage at the 4 and 5 even with Dirk, and I believe Dallas has an advantage at the 1 and 3. The shooting guards and Antione Walker will determine this series. If Dallas? two can contain or score with Wade they win, if Antione Walker can put offensive pressure on Dallas and not go 2-14 they will likely win. I think Dallas will scheme to stop Wade, and Miami will scheme to make Dallas take outside shots especially when Devin Harris is on the floor.
I hate to say this but I think officiating is going to come into play more this series than any other series I can remember. Not so much that one team is getting an unfair advantage (which is highly possible), but more of how they call the games. If they let them play, Miami will have a much better chance of winning. Shaq and the big men being able to use the muscle down low, Miami?s slower guards being able to use their hands, and basically it?ll slow the tempo into a half court X?s and O?s affair. If they call the game tight (or if Dick Bavetta is anywhere near the building), and ticky tack fouls are being called, go ahead and pencil in the Mavericks as your 2005/2006 champions, as they?ll crank it up and run and gun, and no matter how many fouls the Mavericks get, it?ll hurt the Heat much much worse.
While I know the Mavericks are more athletic and the West is stronger, and if they lined up to play a bunch of games of one on one, the mavericks would win 90% of those, for some reason I think the Mavericks will need the refs help to win this one. I just have watched a lot of basketball since the Bulls won their first title with MJ in 90-91. And since then history says the Heat have an advantage. The MVP of the finals has been either a center or a two guard every year except 2004 when Chauncy Billups won it, and that year Richard Hamilton scored more points than Billups in the series. With Shaq and Duane Wade that bodes well for Miami. Second, as far back as I can remember (which pretty much goes back to 1980), the team that won the title, had one of two types of offense. Either an inside/outside game with a dominant center, and some decent perimeter players, or a sophisticated offense such as the Triangle, that uses every possible spacing, screen and backdoor cut possible. While I wouldn?t really describe Miami as a perfect scenario of either even with Shaq, they are light years closer than Dallas to either scenario.
Will be an interesting series, I have a feeling any wins Miami get?s will be close. Dallas? wins will be blowout affairs. If Dallas strings together some good shooting nights, this thing may be done quick, but if they don?t and Miami get?s one of the first two I think Dallas is in trouble.
For purely informational purposes I'm going with Miami in 6. But for betting purposes I think Miami +188 for Game 1 has value , as if they are going to win one on the Mavericks home floor which they would have to do to win the series (which is +139) this is likely to be it, as Riley will come up with something, that will throw Avery into fits, and it'll be game two before Dallas figures it out.
Last edited:
Yak, not busting balls or anything so don't take it that way but Duncan isn't a center. So 3 of those years it was given to a power foward. This year will make 4 years for the PF spot. :nono:
GO MAVS
GO MAVS
Well this year he did play center. But I guess you are right, the first two times he won it he had David Robinson,and last year he had N. Mohammed at the five. Dirk will be the MVP if the Mavs win, because he's going to get 30 to 35 each night. I'm interested to see how the Heat deal with D. Harris blowing by, each defender they put in front of him. If they can get some actual layups from their bigs when Shaq has to leave them to come help, Miami will be in a world of trouble. Problem is he's been blowing by people all year, and all it ends up with is a bad kickout pass to Dirk who already has somebody guarding him. Oh well tomorrow we will know.
the refs will control this - unless dallas is just red hot shooting. shaq on bench = obvious loss.imo
shaq playing bully on offense,controling the boards,blocking shots gives miami a solid chance.
in the end, i think it is dallas' to lose,but they don't always play smart.
shaq playing bully on offense,controling the boards,blocking shots gives miami a solid chance.
in the end, i think it is dallas' to lose,but they don't always play smart.
Well done
Well done
Yak,
Thanks for the summary. I think the Heat will win, but I agree with you that the officiating will be a determining factor.
My opinion is that D. Wade is the best player in the game.
Okie Bob
Well done
Yak,
Thanks for the summary. I think the Heat will win, but I agree with you that the officiating will be a determining factor.
My opinion is that D. Wade is the best player in the game.
Okie Bob
Well, Didn't play out exactly like I thought. But pretty close. Shaq didn't do much but he and Zo definitely did more than Diop and Dampier. Dampier looked decent in a couple of games, but he's still a waste of size. Zo really impressed me in game 6. Haslem and Walker did their job and more and kept Dirk from going nuts. Walker did score and keep the horrible shots to a minimum which is what I thought was necessary for them to win. Posey didn't play as big a role as I thought he would, but did play some pretty good defense at times. Wade was unconscious from game 3 on and not only outscored Dallas' shooting guards, but did a great job on defense and hitting the glass. His effort,skill, and body control in all aspects of the game reminded me of Jordan. Williams and Payton suck, but won despite of it. (If I was Riley I would have beat Payton to death after that turnover in game six while he was jawing at the ref and not paying attention). Dallas did not take advantage of the point guard match-up like they should have. The whole series basically came down to the Dallas not having a decent offense and not being able to take advantage of their foot speed. Even when Dallas would drive by their man, help would come and everyone on Dallas just stood around watching. Dallas had this series if they could have held on in Game 3. But Wade and a veteran team didn't panic and pulled it out. After game 4 I was pretty sure Miami had the series as Dallas is mentally fragile and they had all kinds of demons by that point. Really think we are going to see how good a coach Avery is over the off-season. I knew Dallas was markedly better after a full training camp with Avery and him preaching defense. Let's see if he can implement a real offense next year and Dallas will have real nice shot to take it all.
