BEGINNING FRIDAY JUNE 16
Colorado at St. Louis (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Cardinals have unraveled in the wake of Albert Pujols?s injury (3-6, -$635 last 10 days with a 7.00 ERA among starters), seeing their lead over Cincinnati in the NL Central evaporate. But the Rockies have also fallen off the pace after a decent start, and their average of only 4.3 runs per game is among the lowest in the league, unusual for a team that traditionally boasts an explosive attack. But they?ve got a solid starting duo of Jeff Francis (3.86 ERA) and Aaron Cook (3.75), both of whom will take a turn here at Busch Stadium. We?ll take the underdog price when they go. BEST BET: Francis/Cook.
Detroit at Chicago Cubs (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Cubs will be hard pressed vs. the Tigers at Wrigley this weekend, a team that despite a sub-par week still possesses the best record in baseball (40-23, +$1640). Chicago has scored the fewest runs of any team in the league (only 3.9 per game) and their team ERA is 4.62, 4th worst in the NL). They?ve been at their very worst vs. lefties (only 7-12, -$585 with 3.4 runs per game) and they?ll be squaring off against to of Detroit?s finest when Nate Robertson (3.26) and Kenny Rogers (3.46) take their turns. Chicago is only 7-11 (-$320) vs. the AL since 2005. BEST BET: Robertson/Rogers.
N.Y. Yankees at Washington (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Yankees are coming off a rough stretch, having been swept in three straight by the Athletics at home, while the Nationals are playing their best ball of 2006 (8-2, +$850 last 10 days). Washington?s team ERA is a respectable 4.23, good for 5th in the NL, and with all righthanders they could be dangerous vs. New York (Yankees only 21-22, -$1235 vs. rightanders so far). Tony Armas won?t see action in this series, so we?ll limit ourselves to a play on Shawn Hill, who has looked sharp in his three starts (1.80 ERA) and who will no doubt catch a fat price vs. the overpriced Yankees. BEST BET: S. Hill.
Tampa Bay at Philadelphia (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Phillies are scoring a decent number of runs, but they?ve been plagued by very inconsistent starting pitching (7.10 ERA last 10 days). They?ll need to do better than 16-16 (-$470) here at Citizens Bank Ballpark, particularly against weak competition like the Devil Rays, if they hope to stay close to the Mets in the NL East. Tampa Bay may be in for a long weekend, especially if ace Scott Kazmir doesn?t get back on track following a pair of awful outings. They are only 12-22 (-$475) away from Tropicana Field so we?re going to avoid this series for the time being. BEST BET: None.
Minnesota at Pittsburgh (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Twins have not looked sharp outside of the Metrodome in 2006, where they?ve stumbled to a miserable 10-24 (-$1325) road record. Their lefthanders have been solid, but none of the righthanders in their starting rotation has an ERA of less than 5.48, and that?s bad news here at PNC Park, where the Pirates have posted a stellar 12-3 (+$1070) record in night games vs. righties, averaging 6.0 runs per game in those contests. We should get that situation at least once, and we?ll lay whatever price we have to when we do. BEST BET: Pirates vs. righthanders in night games.
Chicago W. Sox at Cincinnati (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Reds have had a sensational run over the first 10 weeks of the season, but taking on the World Champions could be a tall order. Chicago checks in with a 14-7 record in inter-league record over the past couple of years (+$390) and they compiled a 26-11 (+$980) mark vs. righties in 2006. The Reds have lost money vs. righties at Great American Ballpark (8-11, -$515), but if we get lefties squaring off, we?ve got an opportunity to take the home team (Sox -$755 vs. southpaws, Reds +$270 with 6.3 runs per game). BEST BET: White Sox when righty meets righty/Reds when lefty meets lefty.
Baltimore at N.Y. Mets (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Mets are getting outstanding pitching right now (3.81 ERA, best in the NL) and we expect prices on the New York team could get prohibitively expensive here at Shea Stadium vs. a Baltimore team with the 2nd worst pitching in MLB (5.39 team ERA). The only shot we?ll take is with ace Tom Glavine, who?s enjoying his best season in many years (+$865, 3.06 ERA) and should have is way with the Orioles, who are only 5-14 (-$1020) vs. lefthanders, including a pitiful 1-9 with 3.1 runs per game on the road. BEST BET: Glavine.
Toronto at Florida (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
Despite some modest success in recent days, the Marlins are still the worst team in the NL, with an awful 9-17 (-$645) record at home. They lack the pitching to stop a hard hitting team like Toronto that owns the highest team BA in the majors (.301). The Blue Jays are making the AL East race even more interesting than usual, and look like legitimate candidates to take advantage of recent stumbles by New York and Boston. And their 27-14 (+$1210) record in night games makes them tough to pass up here, where they should take at least 2 out of 3. BEST BET: Blue Jays in all games.
Boston at Atlanta (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
We?ve seen Atlanta stumble early in the past, only to come roaring back in the second half, but this may be the year the Braves are finally toppled from their perch atop the NL East. They?ve been a disaster vs. righthanded pitching this year (only 23-29, -$1275) and that?s bad news vs. this all righty rotation. The Red Sox meanwhile are a formidable 25-15 (+$745) vs. righthanders, and the once vaunted Atlanta pitching has the 2nd worst team ERA in the league (4.78). The road team should be available at reasonable prices in these matchups. BEST BET: Red Sox when righty meets righty.
Kansas City at Houston (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Astros rank close to last in the NL in hitting (.257 team BA) and in pitching (4.64), but they have managed a solid 23-14 (+$405) record here at MinuteMaid Park. We?re not sure what the Royals will send to the mound at this point, given that they?ve already used 11 different starting pitchers (6.26 team ERA, worst in baseball), but with a 6-26 record on the road (-$1150) we?ll welcome a chance to use the Astros, who need a big weekend vs. KC to stay in the picture until Roger Clemens is ready. BEST BET: Astros at -170 or less.
Cleveland at Milwaukee (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
We love the Brewers here at Miller Park where they boast a solid 21-15 record so far (+$330). The Indians have struggled vs. righthanded pitching, particularly in night games (only 9-16, -$1210) and their record away from Jacobs Field is a disappointing 12-17 (-$800). So despite the Tribe?s success in inter-league play over the past couple of seasons, we?ll stick with the home team when the situation looks right. BEST BET: Righthanders vs. the Indians at night.
Arizona at Texas (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
We?ve got a pair of surprising division leaders squaring off at Arlington this weekend, looking to hold off the competition in their respective divisions. It could be a bad spot for the Rangers, in that they are only 9-13 vs. righties in this ballpark (-$745) and the Diamondbacks are using an all-righty rotation at present. Arizona has turned a substantial profit as a visitor (+$940) and they?ve got a potent attack (5.1 runs per game) that should help them win 2 out of 3 from Texas. BEST BET: Diamondbacks in all games.
San Francisco at Seattle (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Giants are a solid 6-2 at home vs. lefthanders (+$305 with 6.2 runs per game) and they?ll get a shot against veteran Jaime Moyer, who will take his turn at Safeco this weekend. Seattle is only 7-16 vs. southpaws (-$1160 with 3.6 runs per game) so go with Noah Lowry (3.50 ERA in eight starts) if he gets to take the mound this weekend. BEST BET: Lowry/Giants vs. Moyer.
L.A. Dodgers at Oakland (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Dodgers look like the real deal in 2006, with the best offense in the NL (.282 team BA, with 5.5 runs per game), and a team ERA of 4.15, good for 4th lowest in the league. The Athletics average only 4.4 runs per game, more than one full run less than LA, and they?ve lost money at the Coliseum (-$645). Luckily for Oakland they?ll miss ace Brad Penny, but they are likely to see Derek Lowe (2.83 ERA in 14 starts) and perhaps Aaron Sele (2.33 ERA in six starts). We?ll use the two veteran righthanders against the A?s, no doubt at very reasonable road prices. BEST BET: Lowe/Sele.
San Diego at L.A. Angels (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Angels had made up a little bit of ground in the AL West, but they were roughed up a bit by the Mariners last weekend, and they could have their hands full vs. a tenacious San Diego team that checks in with an 8-1 record in road games vs. righties (+$785 with 6.8 runs per game). LA?s starters have been inconsistent, but we would watch out for rookie Jered Weaver, who has put together three good starts since joining the Angels two weeks ago (+$315, 1.86 ERA). BEST BET
adres vs. all righthanders except Jr. Weaver.
Colorado at St. Louis (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Cardinals have unraveled in the wake of Albert Pujols?s injury (3-6, -$635 last 10 days with a 7.00 ERA among starters), seeing their lead over Cincinnati in the NL Central evaporate. But the Rockies have also fallen off the pace after a decent start, and their average of only 4.3 runs per game is among the lowest in the league, unusual for a team that traditionally boasts an explosive attack. But they?ve got a solid starting duo of Jeff Francis (3.86 ERA) and Aaron Cook (3.75), both of whom will take a turn here at Busch Stadium. We?ll take the underdog price when they go. BEST BET: Francis/Cook.
Detroit at Chicago Cubs (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Cubs will be hard pressed vs. the Tigers at Wrigley this weekend, a team that despite a sub-par week still possesses the best record in baseball (40-23, +$1640). Chicago has scored the fewest runs of any team in the league (only 3.9 per game) and their team ERA is 4.62, 4th worst in the NL). They?ve been at their very worst vs. lefties (only 7-12, -$585 with 3.4 runs per game) and they?ll be squaring off against to of Detroit?s finest when Nate Robertson (3.26) and Kenny Rogers (3.46) take their turns. Chicago is only 7-11 (-$320) vs. the AL since 2005. BEST BET: Robertson/Rogers.
N.Y. Yankees at Washington (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Yankees are coming off a rough stretch, having been swept in three straight by the Athletics at home, while the Nationals are playing their best ball of 2006 (8-2, +$850 last 10 days). Washington?s team ERA is a respectable 4.23, good for 5th in the NL, and with all righthanders they could be dangerous vs. New York (Yankees only 21-22, -$1235 vs. rightanders so far). Tony Armas won?t see action in this series, so we?ll limit ourselves to a play on Shawn Hill, who has looked sharp in his three starts (1.80 ERA) and who will no doubt catch a fat price vs. the overpriced Yankees. BEST BET: S. Hill.
Tampa Bay at Philadelphia (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Phillies are scoring a decent number of runs, but they?ve been plagued by very inconsistent starting pitching (7.10 ERA last 10 days). They?ll need to do better than 16-16 (-$470) here at Citizens Bank Ballpark, particularly against weak competition like the Devil Rays, if they hope to stay close to the Mets in the NL East. Tampa Bay may be in for a long weekend, especially if ace Scott Kazmir doesn?t get back on track following a pair of awful outings. They are only 12-22 (-$475) away from Tropicana Field so we?re going to avoid this series for the time being. BEST BET: None.
Minnesota at Pittsburgh (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Twins have not looked sharp outside of the Metrodome in 2006, where they?ve stumbled to a miserable 10-24 (-$1325) road record. Their lefthanders have been solid, but none of the righthanders in their starting rotation has an ERA of less than 5.48, and that?s bad news here at PNC Park, where the Pirates have posted a stellar 12-3 (+$1070) record in night games vs. righties, averaging 6.0 runs per game in those contests. We should get that situation at least once, and we?ll lay whatever price we have to when we do. BEST BET: Pirates vs. righthanders in night games.
Chicago W. Sox at Cincinnati (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Reds have had a sensational run over the first 10 weeks of the season, but taking on the World Champions could be a tall order. Chicago checks in with a 14-7 record in inter-league record over the past couple of years (+$390) and they compiled a 26-11 (+$980) mark vs. righties in 2006. The Reds have lost money vs. righties at Great American Ballpark (8-11, -$515), but if we get lefties squaring off, we?ve got an opportunity to take the home team (Sox -$755 vs. southpaws, Reds +$270 with 6.3 runs per game). BEST BET: White Sox when righty meets righty/Reds when lefty meets lefty.
Baltimore at N.Y. Mets (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Mets are getting outstanding pitching right now (3.81 ERA, best in the NL) and we expect prices on the New York team could get prohibitively expensive here at Shea Stadium vs. a Baltimore team with the 2nd worst pitching in MLB (5.39 team ERA). The only shot we?ll take is with ace Tom Glavine, who?s enjoying his best season in many years (+$865, 3.06 ERA) and should have is way with the Orioles, who are only 5-14 (-$1020) vs. lefthanders, including a pitiful 1-9 with 3.1 runs per game on the road. BEST BET: Glavine.
Toronto at Florida (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
Despite some modest success in recent days, the Marlins are still the worst team in the NL, with an awful 9-17 (-$645) record at home. They lack the pitching to stop a hard hitting team like Toronto that owns the highest team BA in the majors (.301). The Blue Jays are making the AL East race even more interesting than usual, and look like legitimate candidates to take advantage of recent stumbles by New York and Boston. And their 27-14 (+$1210) record in night games makes them tough to pass up here, where they should take at least 2 out of 3. BEST BET: Blue Jays in all games.
Boston at Atlanta (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
We?ve seen Atlanta stumble early in the past, only to come roaring back in the second half, but this may be the year the Braves are finally toppled from their perch atop the NL East. They?ve been a disaster vs. righthanded pitching this year (only 23-29, -$1275) and that?s bad news vs. this all righty rotation. The Red Sox meanwhile are a formidable 25-15 (+$745) vs. righthanders, and the once vaunted Atlanta pitching has the 2nd worst team ERA in the league (4.78). The road team should be available at reasonable prices in these matchups. BEST BET: Red Sox when righty meets righty.
Kansas City at Houston (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Astros rank close to last in the NL in hitting (.257 team BA) and in pitching (4.64), but they have managed a solid 23-14 (+$405) record here at MinuteMaid Park. We?re not sure what the Royals will send to the mound at this point, given that they?ve already used 11 different starting pitchers (6.26 team ERA, worst in baseball), but with a 6-26 record on the road (-$1150) we?ll welcome a chance to use the Astros, who need a big weekend vs. KC to stay in the picture until Roger Clemens is ready. BEST BET: Astros at -170 or less.
Cleveland at Milwaukee (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
We love the Brewers here at Miller Park where they boast a solid 21-15 record so far (+$330). The Indians have struggled vs. righthanded pitching, particularly in night games (only 9-16, -$1210) and their record away from Jacobs Field is a disappointing 12-17 (-$800). So despite the Tribe?s success in inter-league play over the past couple of seasons, we?ll stick with the home team when the situation looks right. BEST BET: Righthanders vs. the Indians at night.
Arizona at Texas (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
We?ve got a pair of surprising division leaders squaring off at Arlington this weekend, looking to hold off the competition in their respective divisions. It could be a bad spot for the Rangers, in that they are only 9-13 vs. righties in this ballpark (-$745) and the Diamondbacks are using an all-righty rotation at present. Arizona has turned a substantial profit as a visitor (+$940) and they?ve got a potent attack (5.1 runs per game) that should help them win 2 out of 3 from Texas. BEST BET: Diamondbacks in all games.
San Francisco at Seattle (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Giants are a solid 6-2 at home vs. lefthanders (+$305 with 6.2 runs per game) and they?ll get a shot against veteran Jaime Moyer, who will take his turn at Safeco this weekend. Seattle is only 7-16 vs. southpaws (-$1160 with 3.6 runs per game) so go with Noah Lowry (3.50 ERA in eight starts) if he gets to take the mound this weekend. BEST BET: Lowry/Giants vs. Moyer.
L.A. Dodgers at Oakland (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Dodgers look like the real deal in 2006, with the best offense in the NL (.282 team BA, with 5.5 runs per game), and a team ERA of 4.15, good for 4th lowest in the league. The Athletics average only 4.4 runs per game, more than one full run less than LA, and they?ve lost money at the Coliseum (-$645). Luckily for Oakland they?ll miss ace Brad Penny, but they are likely to see Derek Lowe (2.83 ERA in 14 starts) and perhaps Aaron Sele (2.33 ERA in six starts). We?ll use the two veteran righthanders against the A?s, no doubt at very reasonable road prices. BEST BET: Lowe/Sele.
San Diego at L.A. Angels (3) 16th, 17th, 18th
The Angels had made up a little bit of ground in the AL West, but they were roughed up a bit by the Mariners last weekend, and they could have their hands full vs. a tenacious San Diego team that checks in with an 8-1 record in road games vs. righties (+$785 with 6.8 runs per game). LA?s starters have been inconsistent, but we would watch out for rookie Jered Weaver, who has put together three good starts since joining the Angels two weeks ago (+$315, 1.86 ERA). BEST BET
adres vs. all righthanders except Jr. Weaver.