Jeff Haney examines the trends on futures bets for NFL teams' over/under win totals, which can be traced to 'educated wise guys' hitting the books early
Jay Kornegay, sports book director at the Las Vegas Hilton, calls them "educated wise guys."
They're sophisticated, often professional, gamblers.
And even if you won't feel inspired to bet NFL regular-season victory over / unders until close to Labor Day, it can be worthwhile to see which teams those educated wise guys are backing at the betting windows.
Yes, already.
Since the Hilton posted season win totals for all 32 NFL teams in April, there have been significant moves in the betting lines attached to a half-dozen of them.
In each case, the adjustment in the line was driven by "sharp" money rather than bets by recreational gamblers or casual fans, Kornegay said.
"Most of the action from the general public this time of year is in the form of small bets," Kornegay said. "What we're seeing is educated, wise-guy action. The general public doesn't really get into football betting mode until the start of the preseason."
Among the teams that have attracted the most early action:
Carolina Panthers: The Panthers' season win total opened at 9 1/2 and has been bet up to 10, a significant adjustment even when you consider the 9 1/2 had a heavy premium of minus-150 (risk $1.50 to win $1) on the over.
Contrary to popular belief, bettors weren't simply banking on an extended hot streak for Carolina sports teams after the Hurricanes won the Stanley Cup. More likely, they were looking at the Panthers' fifth-ranked defense and key additions such as wide receiver Keyshawn Johnson. The Panthers outscored their opponents 391 to 259 last season, a differential that traditionally equates to about 11 wins in the NFL, so their 11-5 record wasn't exactly a fluke. It doesn't hurt that division rival Tampa Bay is expected to sustain a letdown after winning 11 games last season: The Bucs' posted total for 2006 is eight victories.
Chicago Bears: The Bears' over/under has held steady at nine wins, but the price on the over has gone from an opener of minus-130 to minus-160. The Bears might be due to bounce back to Earth after going 11-5 last season, but bettors think the Bears' top-ranked defense will save them from falling too far.
Green Bay Packers: Bettors are playing the Packers to win more than six games, as the price on the over has gone from minus-130 to minus-160. The support for Green Bay, which brings back quarterback Brett Favre and running back Ahman Green and adds defensive star Charles Woodson, came as no surprise to Kornegay.
"That's typical," he said. "The Packers are definitely a team we receive money on for the success side - meaning the over in this kind of betting - year after year. That's true whether they had four wins the previous year or 12 wins."
Miami Dolphins: Miami has had a 70-cent swing in its betting line of nine season wins, from minus-135 on the under to minus-135 on the over, indicating heavy support for the Dolphins to exceed that total. Shrugging off Ricky Williams' defection to Canada, gamblers are betting on quarterback Daunte Culpepper's full recovery from a serious knee injury.
New York Jets: Bettors are playing the Jets to go under 6 1/2 wins, the price plummeting from minus-140 on the over to minus-150 on the under. Bettors are concerned about how the team will adjust to a new coaching regime after replacing former coach Herman Edwards with Eric Mangini.
San Diego Chargers: Bettors have shown little faith in the Chargers, driving the price on their total of nine wins from minus-135 on the over to minus-150 on the under.
"There's some debate on how successful (new starting quarterback Philip) Rivers is going to be in his first year," Kornegay said.
Elite teams: There has been little to no movement in the betting lines attached to the NFL's marquee teams, an indication sharp gamblers believe the league's powerhouses were priced right by the oddsmakers. The Indianapolis Colts have held steady at 11 1/2 wins, minus-130 on the under, since the lines were posted at the Hilton. There has been no movement on the Seattle Seahawks (10 1/2 wins, under minus-130) or the Denver Broncos (10 wins, minus-110 either way). The line on the New England Patriots has barely budged and stands at 10 1/2 wins, under minus-145.
The Pittsburgh Steelers' total of 10 wins had been holding steady until the wager was temporarily taken off the board after quarterback Ben Roethlisberger's motorcycle crash last week.
Jeff Haney can be reached at 259-4041 or at haney@lasvegassun.com.
Jay Kornegay, sports book director at the Las Vegas Hilton, calls them "educated wise guys."
They're sophisticated, often professional, gamblers.
And even if you won't feel inspired to bet NFL regular-season victory over / unders until close to Labor Day, it can be worthwhile to see which teams those educated wise guys are backing at the betting windows.
Yes, already.
Since the Hilton posted season win totals for all 32 NFL teams in April, there have been significant moves in the betting lines attached to a half-dozen of them.
In each case, the adjustment in the line was driven by "sharp" money rather than bets by recreational gamblers or casual fans, Kornegay said.
"Most of the action from the general public this time of year is in the form of small bets," Kornegay said. "What we're seeing is educated, wise-guy action. The general public doesn't really get into football betting mode until the start of the preseason."
Among the teams that have attracted the most early action:
Carolina Panthers: The Panthers' season win total opened at 9 1/2 and has been bet up to 10, a significant adjustment even when you consider the 9 1/2 had a heavy premium of minus-150 (risk $1.50 to win $1) on the over.
Contrary to popular belief, bettors weren't simply banking on an extended hot streak for Carolina sports teams after the Hurricanes won the Stanley Cup. More likely, they were looking at the Panthers' fifth-ranked defense and key additions such as wide receiver Keyshawn Johnson. The Panthers outscored their opponents 391 to 259 last season, a differential that traditionally equates to about 11 wins in the NFL, so their 11-5 record wasn't exactly a fluke. It doesn't hurt that division rival Tampa Bay is expected to sustain a letdown after winning 11 games last season: The Bucs' posted total for 2006 is eight victories.
Chicago Bears: The Bears' over/under has held steady at nine wins, but the price on the over has gone from an opener of minus-130 to minus-160. The Bears might be due to bounce back to Earth after going 11-5 last season, but bettors think the Bears' top-ranked defense will save them from falling too far.
Green Bay Packers: Bettors are playing the Packers to win more than six games, as the price on the over has gone from minus-130 to minus-160. The support for Green Bay, which brings back quarterback Brett Favre and running back Ahman Green and adds defensive star Charles Woodson, came as no surprise to Kornegay.
"That's typical," he said. "The Packers are definitely a team we receive money on for the success side - meaning the over in this kind of betting - year after year. That's true whether they had four wins the previous year or 12 wins."
Miami Dolphins: Miami has had a 70-cent swing in its betting line of nine season wins, from minus-135 on the under to minus-135 on the over, indicating heavy support for the Dolphins to exceed that total. Shrugging off Ricky Williams' defection to Canada, gamblers are betting on quarterback Daunte Culpepper's full recovery from a serious knee injury.
New York Jets: Bettors are playing the Jets to go under 6 1/2 wins, the price plummeting from minus-140 on the over to minus-150 on the under. Bettors are concerned about how the team will adjust to a new coaching regime after replacing former coach Herman Edwards with Eric Mangini.
San Diego Chargers: Bettors have shown little faith in the Chargers, driving the price on their total of nine wins from minus-135 on the over to minus-150 on the under.
"There's some debate on how successful (new starting quarterback Philip) Rivers is going to be in his first year," Kornegay said.
Elite teams: There has been little to no movement in the betting lines attached to the NFL's marquee teams, an indication sharp gamblers believe the league's powerhouses were priced right by the oddsmakers. The Indianapolis Colts have held steady at 11 1/2 wins, minus-130 on the under, since the lines were posted at the Hilton. There has been no movement on the Seattle Seahawks (10 1/2 wins, under minus-130) or the Denver Broncos (10 wins, minus-110 either way). The line on the New England Patriots has barely budged and stands at 10 1/2 wins, under minus-145.
The Pittsburgh Steelers' total of 10 wins had been holding steady until the wager was temporarily taken off the board after quarterback Ben Roethlisberger's motorcycle crash last week.
Jeff Haney can be reached at 259-4041 or at haney@lasvegassun.com.
