SMOKES FIELD OF DREAMS RUN LINE!! 7-8-06

SMOKE JENSEN

SMOKE JENSEN

Registered User
Forum Member
Jan 8, 2002
1,154
1
0
On the lake. Setting hooks!
On another note. The decision to ban KC has burned my and you guys with me asses. It has cost me over $4100 the last two nights. I made a wrong knee jerk reaction when I banned KC. KC or any team in this system should be played when they qualify. I've stated that with this system that probably out of 10 plays will only hit 4.5 of them. Or out of 20 plays will only hit 9. Its hard to selectively "pluck".

But now I'm in another quandary. KC IS A PLAY AGAIN TODAY!!! Let me state my thinking. I have gotten myself out of rhythm. This is what I mean. I was supposed to play KC thurs. That would have netted me $2000. I was supposed to play KC yesterday. Now if they had lost yesterday. I still would have been +$1200 with KC over a two night period. Now they won yesterday. I should be up over $4100 with KC over thurs/fri. NOW THEY ARE A PLAY TODAY AGAIN. If I risk the $800 on KC, I have given my $4100 cushion I should have away. My rhythm is off damnit.

So I can go one of two ways. Play KC today. Or forget them this weekend and back to the plan after the allstar break. Play what the damn thing says. WHEN IT SAYS. WHAT IT SAYS.


As you guys can tell I'm frazzled at this. And indecisive. My fault. So I'm asking you guys who are in this system with me which way you think we should go?? Let me know. And sorry for the long rant.
 
Last edited:
yanno

yanno

Registered User
Forum Member
Sep 8, 2001
3,482
118
63
Ontario
At the start of this series, I was going to play a progression/chase on the theory that the Jays would not be swept. After the first game I bailed because the Jays are not playing well and are playing hurt. Rios is out, Troy Glaus is limping, Wells has a healing groin. The starting pitching is iffy, Taub should not even be starting and won't be soon, you can't tell if AJ will have his good stuff with consistency yet, you don't know which Ted Lilly will show up (today), and even Halladay has an ERA over 5 the last few games.

Also, I was impressed after the first game (and again yesterday) with the way KC is playing. They are not a Triple A team and can play ball with the big boys. So maybe the reasons for the original ban have disappeared somewhat?

Sure the Jays might win the next two games and split the series, but then maybe KC will win one of them (or even do the unlikely and sweep). Given the system you are playing, the odds are on your side and KC should be getting some good dog odds for a long while yet. It's your call, but I wouldn't be afraid to bet them because they are just some crud team.

Good luck to you and us and THANKS FOR THE GOOD WORK!
 
B

brooklynkid

Houston Alum
Forum Member
Apr 1, 2006
1,249
0
0
So. California
Smoke,
I know what I said the other day but they are playing decent ball (14-6 last 20 games)and if we can double up it's worth it...let's go with 'em....
 
M

mack the knife

Registered User
Forum Member
Jul 19, 2002
413
0
0
WHATEVER YOU CHOOSE, BE CONSISTENT. IF YOU BAN THEM, DON'T PLAY THEM FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR. IF YOU PLAY THEM TODAY, THEN DON'T STOP IF THEY LOSE. CONSISTENCY IS THE KEY--DON'T TRY TO OUTSMART YOURSELF.
 
hammer1

hammer1

Registered User
Forum Member
Jun 17, 2002
7,791
127
63
Wisconsin and Dorado Puerto Rico
Just a thought...............

Just a thought...............

Since what u are doing is obviously working..i would default to the ole "If it ain't broke dont fix it" If all of a sudden u hit a 5 -6 day string of loses then perhaps i would take pause.
As an analogy to what i do I always assume that a loser is going to keep losing and a winner is going to keep winning...problem is there are so few winners.
So i always default to fading someone before i agree with them. U almost can not get hurt doing it that way. While playing underdogs and keeping baseball plays under $1.50 is certainly a guidepost. There are times when laying the 170 185 are the right course of action.
Another story,I believe it was 1983 when the Orioles won the World Series. That year was the first year i ever bet a baseball game. I started however on the Orioles and White Sox who went something like 26 - 2 and 28 - 2 respectively in the month of August. So my BB gaming career started on a 54 - 4 run. I started out with $50 plays and was up to $1000 by the middle of the streak. $5000 on the Orioles to win World Series.
Winner! The next year Tigers started out 35 -1 and Cubs started out 1 - 20.....55 -2 Life is good.!!!! Makes 56 - 11 look like rookie handicapping. In these streaks the favs were in the 180 250 range. I was winning so much coin i asked my local if he will be able to afford to keep paying me. He said "No Problem" i was the only one playing the Wsox and Orioles.......all his other clients were losing their homes playin the big dog in all the games or plunging in to gamblers hell with the DOO Du Loose theory of Gambling. That's like in Doggie Doo Doo. Streaks in my opinion are right there on top of the list in capping or table gaming and being aware of whether u are on a hot or cold team is crucial. St Louis was hot now ice cold. KC was dog meat and now a cash cow.
Now to get back to the original topic. Just stick to what u are doing. U urself don't pick and chose.
Leave that up to the people that follow u.
If all of a sudden u hit a brick wall...by that i mean 2 -3 1 - 5 1-4 days then i would pause. Go back over all ur plays how many 1-5 1-4 days in a row did u ever have. if no more than 2 -3 i wouldn't worry a bit. Just keep on keepin on.
Now...................I believe I have gone over my allotted time................G Luck !!!
 
W

wlmackey

degenerate
Forum Member
Jun 20, 2004
332
1
0
64
Southern California
You know how I feel. I played them myself. But with that said this is simple, TRUST THE SYSTEM.....Once you start editing it no longer is a system. Do NOT out think yourself. FYI I already played KC today another nice +260. Good Luck whatever you choose.
 
SMOKE JENSEN

SMOKE JENSEN

Registered User
Forum Member
Jan 8, 2002
1,154
1
0
On the lake. Setting hooks!
Win or lose. It was the right choice. I'm the one who preached you can't pick and choose. Especially on a system that will only hit 42-45%. And I faulterd once. KC. Well no more. The new motto is:
"WHAT IT SAY'S" / "WHEN IT SAYS" GL guys!!
 
D

Destructor D

Destructor
Forum Member
Dec 6, 2005
8,619
116
63
Kansas City, MO
KC has been one of the top 5 teams in baseball over the past month. I just read the numbers in the KC Star today. They field the ball well (4th best in AL), hit good at home, and are overachieving right now. No reason to not play them as they have made me a ton the past month.
 
SMOKE JENSEN

SMOKE JENSEN

Registered User
Forum Member
Jan 8, 2002
1,154
1
0
On the lake. Setting hooks!
YTD:

W-150
L-158
+$28,332

Well guys no need to tell you. Were in a little slide. W-3 L-8 and -$3,432 the last two nights. The few that played KC thurs and fri are a lot better off and ahead. But we will keep our heads high and not blame the system/formula. It should be 5-8 and around $750 up since thrs. But I will keep working and stick with playing "WHAT IT SAY'S" / "WHEN IT SAYS" GL guys!!
 
T

Tam

Registered User
Forum Member
Jan 16, 2005
237
0
0
48
NYC
couple of bad days will always happen...keep up the great work, best of luck after the all star break!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Bet on MyBookie
Top