Oddsmakers adjust to new rules in college football
By Stephen Nover
Mon, Jul 17, 2006
You may want to handicap college football games a little differently this year, especially with respect to totals. There are several new rule changes designed to speed up the game that could affect over/unders and teams with dangerous kick returners.
The NCAA Rules Committee passed a measure lowering the kicking tee from two inches to one. This is probably going to mean fewer touchbacks and more kickoff returns.
The committee also altered rules regarding clock stoppage. It used to be the clock would start when the ball was snapped. Now the clock will begin once the ball is spotted on change of possessions. The clock also will start once the ball is kicked on kickoffs instead of when someone touches the ball.
This could render some of last year?s statistics meaningless for handicapping purposes.
?If the rule change does significantly affect scoring, after a couple of weeks of the season, last year?s numbers will be old news,? professional football bettor Dave Zenor said.
The question is just how much influence will these new rules have on scoring? These new rules could trim around six minutes of the clock compared to previous seasons.
Professional handicapper Andy Iskoe says it could mean two less possessions per game, which might mean scoring could be down 3-7 points depending on the team.
?I would look for it to be a factor,? Iskoe said.
Games taking more than three hours to play have become the norm in college football. Some games drag on nearly four hours.
The NCAA wants to curb this, even to the extent of reducing halftime. These new rules are a start.
?We?ll make an adjustment on the totals,? White said. ?We won?t do a wait-and-see. We?ll do our best estimate on how many points will be scored per game. Then we?ll come up with our total and shave off the appropriate amount of points we think it should be, and keep adjusting each week.?
Sports gaming author Arne Lang, who specializes in betting college football, said gamblers shouldn?t jump to the conclusion that ?under? automatically is the way to bet if the total still appears too high.
That?s because more and more teams are going to some form of hurry-up offense designed to keep defenses from substituting a lot. Lang cited Baylor and Troy as two examples of teams switching to a spread offense this season.
?The spread-option offense, which is a hurry-up offense, is predicated on keeping defenses on their heels,? Lang said. ?Many more teams are adopting this type of offense.?
This translates into more snaps, which obviously means more scoring opportunities.
?The fact that this type of offense is becoming trendy mitigates any reduction in plays caused by new rule changes,? Lang said.
Ohio State, Arkansas and Oregon are three teams who could really be helped by the reduction in the kicking tee. All three schools have excellent kickoff returners.
Ohio State?s Ted Ginn Jr. is rated the No. 1 kick returner by Athlon in its annual college football annual. The magazine ranks Arkansas? Felix Jones second and Oregon?s Jonathan Stewart third.
Stewart led the nation in kick returns last year, averaging 33.6 yards on 12 returns. He brought two back for touchdowns. That?s an average of one touchdown per six returns. Jones was second at 31.9 yards on 17 returns.
Other kick returners to be aware of are Lance Bennett of Indiana, who finished fourth in the nation two years ago in the category, Tony Pennyman of Utah State, who placed fifth in the country in kick returns last year averaging 29.3 while bringing two back for scores and Darrell Blackman of North Carolina State, who may be the best kick returner in the ACC.
Consequently, if a team doesn?t have capable returners, or frequently has special team breakdowns, they could often open in bad field position.
?People may look more at the impact of kick returns as opposed to reducing the number of possessions, which is the more significant factor,? Iskoe said. ?The real impact of this is reducing the number of possessions by about two a game.?
By Stephen Nover
Mon, Jul 17, 2006
You may want to handicap college football games a little differently this year, especially with respect to totals. There are several new rule changes designed to speed up the game that could affect over/unders and teams with dangerous kick returners.
The NCAA Rules Committee passed a measure lowering the kicking tee from two inches to one. This is probably going to mean fewer touchbacks and more kickoff returns.
The committee also altered rules regarding clock stoppage. It used to be the clock would start when the ball was snapped. Now the clock will begin once the ball is spotted on change of possessions. The clock also will start once the ball is kicked on kickoffs instead of when someone touches the ball.
This could render some of last year?s statistics meaningless for handicapping purposes.
?If the rule change does significantly affect scoring, after a couple of weeks of the season, last year?s numbers will be old news,? professional football bettor Dave Zenor said.
The question is just how much influence will these new rules have on scoring? These new rules could trim around six minutes of the clock compared to previous seasons.
Professional handicapper Andy Iskoe says it could mean two less possessions per game, which might mean scoring could be down 3-7 points depending on the team.
?I would look for it to be a factor,? Iskoe said.
Games taking more than three hours to play have become the norm in college football. Some games drag on nearly four hours.
The NCAA wants to curb this, even to the extent of reducing halftime. These new rules are a start.
?We?ll make an adjustment on the totals,? White said. ?We won?t do a wait-and-see. We?ll do our best estimate on how many points will be scored per game. Then we?ll come up with our total and shave off the appropriate amount of points we think it should be, and keep adjusting each week.?
Sports gaming author Arne Lang, who specializes in betting college football, said gamblers shouldn?t jump to the conclusion that ?under? automatically is the way to bet if the total still appears too high.
That?s because more and more teams are going to some form of hurry-up offense designed to keep defenses from substituting a lot. Lang cited Baylor and Troy as two examples of teams switching to a spread offense this season.
?The spread-option offense, which is a hurry-up offense, is predicated on keeping defenses on their heels,? Lang said. ?Many more teams are adopting this type of offense.?
This translates into more snaps, which obviously means more scoring opportunities.
?The fact that this type of offense is becoming trendy mitigates any reduction in plays caused by new rule changes,? Lang said.
Ohio State, Arkansas and Oregon are three teams who could really be helped by the reduction in the kicking tee. All three schools have excellent kickoff returners.
Ohio State?s Ted Ginn Jr. is rated the No. 1 kick returner by Athlon in its annual college football annual. The magazine ranks Arkansas? Felix Jones second and Oregon?s Jonathan Stewart third.
Stewart led the nation in kick returns last year, averaging 33.6 yards on 12 returns. He brought two back for touchdowns. That?s an average of one touchdown per six returns. Jones was second at 31.9 yards on 17 returns.
Other kick returners to be aware of are Lance Bennett of Indiana, who finished fourth in the nation two years ago in the category, Tony Pennyman of Utah State, who placed fifth in the country in kick returns last year averaging 29.3 while bringing two back for scores and Darrell Blackman of North Carolina State, who may be the best kick returner in the ACC.
Consequently, if a team doesn?t have capable returners, or frequently has special team breakdowns, they could often open in bad field position.
?People may look more at the impact of kick returns as opposed to reducing the number of possessions, which is the more significant factor,? Iskoe said. ?The real impact of this is reducing the number of possessions by about two a game.?
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