Lucena...read this on another site...you still like the Under for the 1st 5.5...?
Tim Hudson enters today trying to shake off his last outing against the New York Mets. In that game, he lasted 5 2/3 Innings, giving up 9 earned runs. In fact, in his last 4 games, he has averaged 5 innings per outing, giving up 21 earned runs (10.10 ERA). Hudson comes into today averaging 15.72 pitches per inning. Of the 91 runs he has allowed this year, 81 (90%) of them have came in his first 75 pitches. So in his 23 starts, he has allowed an average of 3.52 runs in his first 75 pitches, which of course goes towards my first 5 innings play.
Shawn Chacon, recently acquired by the Yankees, enters today with an equally unimpressive last outing. In that game, he allowed 5 earned runs in 2 1/3 innings. His last actual start was July 4, as he has been doing more relieving duty as of late. He has relieved 11 innings of his 63 innings this year. In his start, though, against the Indians, he went 1.1 innings, allowing 7 earned runs. Chacon comes into today averaging 18.7 pitches per inning. So given that average, he will be around 93 pitches after 5 innings. Given the fact he's been a reliever we will give him 75 pitches in 5 innings. Of the 54 runs he has allowed this year, 49 (91%) of them have came in his first 75 pitches. Of the 42 runs he has allowed starting this year, 24 (64%) have came in his first 3 innings pitched.
