With no clear-cut favorites, title race is wide open

AR182

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thought that some might find this interesting....


By Stewart Mandel, SI.com

Earlier this month Ohio State coach Jim Tressel was asked whether it surprises him that his team, despite losing nine defensive starters (including five first-round draft choices), is considered the preseason favorite by many to win the national championship. "I don't know much about the rest of the country," said Tressel, "but that says to me there's obviously not a lot of teams out there that have everybody coming back."

That certainly wasn't the case at this time last year. It didn't take a rocket scientist to pencil in defending national champion USC, whose 14 returning starters included offensive stars Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush, LenDale White and Dwayne Jarrett, and Texas, which brought back QB Vince Young and 15 other starters from a squad that finished 11-1 in '04, as the top two teams in the preseason polls. And lo and behold, the Trojans and the Longhorns met in the Rose Bowl for the national championship.

The pollsters also looked like Nostradamus in 2004, when their preseason top two of USC and Oklahoma also wound up meeting in the national-title game (much to the chagrin of undefeated Auburn). That year the Trojans and the Sooners were also considered obvious choices, with USC coming off a 12-1 season led by Leinart and a dominant defense and Oklahoma bringing back 16 starters from a 10-2 team, including Heisman Trophy-winning QB Jason White.

Try finding such no-brainer picks this year. Would you bet your mortgage on the aforementioned Buckeyes, who will likely start six sophomores on defense when they visit defending national champion Texas on Sept. 9? What about the Vince-less Longhorns, who will be breaking in a freshman quarterback in the same game? USC's cast of stars from the last few seasons are now playing on Sundays. Notre Dame has the star power -- Brady Quinn, Jeff Samardzija, Darius Walker -- but it also has a defense that gave up 617 yards in a Fiesta Bowl loss to Ohio State.

And so on and so on.

The fact is, there isn't a team in the country entering this season without at least a couple of major flaws. What does that mean for the nation's national-title hopefuls? "Last year everybody was talking about how no one could beat USC," said Miami coach Larry Coker. "This year it's probably wide open."

How wide open? Based on recent history, it's entirely possible that this year's national champion will not be one of the teams ranked in the preseason Top 10. Maybe it's not even in the Top 20.

While the past two seasons have played out largely as predicted, there have been three seasons since 2000 in which a team that finished with five losses the year before rose up to win a national title the following season: 2000, Oklahoma (7-5 the year before); 2002, Ohio State (7-5); and 2003, LSU (8-5). Auburn's undefeated 2004 team also went 8-5 the preceding season. All four teams started the year outside the Top 10. This year the Buckeyes, Texas, Notre Dame and USC sit atop the preseason coaches' poll, but the No. 1 team come January could just as easily be a lower-rated squad such as No. 11 Miami (9-3 in '05), No. 13 Louisville (9-3), No. 15 Michigan (7-5) or No. 17 Iowa (7-5).

continued on next post.
 
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AR182

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In fact, if ever there was a season for a sleeper to win the national title, it's this one. We already know that either the No. 1 or the No. 2 team, Ohio State or Texas, won't be in the top five the second week of the season since they face each other. The two teams tied for No. 3 in the coaches' poll, Notre Dame and USC, also meet the final week of the season. Add in the fact that all teams will be playing at least 12 regular-season games and it's easy to see the BCS race potentially deteriorating into a chaotic mishmash of one- and possibly two-loss contenders.

"You've got [119] Division I-A schools, out of which there are about 20 that can win the national title," said Florida State coach Bobby Bowden. "Out of those 20, about 15 are going to have mishaps, injuries and so forth. The ones that avoid serious injuries, stay healthy, are going to have a chance."

In an effort to identify those teams Bowden is talking about, we evaluated every team that finished 7-5 or better last season. From that list we identified 16 "contenders" (which are linked above) that, at least on paper, possess many of the right ingredients -- a veteran quarterback, experienced offensive and defensive lines, proven playmakers, a favorable schedule -- to put together a championship run, provided some other key areas fall into place.

Some are obvious (Ohio State, Notre Dame, West Virginia), some are sleepers (Cal, Clemson, Nebraska) and some are completely off the radar (South Carolina, Georgia Tech, Utah). We're not saying these are the top 16 teams in the country. You'll notice the absence of several seemingly highly regarded teams that may very well have fantastic seasons. It's just that those teams are missing that certain something to make the ultimate run.

All the teams on our list of contenders have the basic foundation to go 13-0 yet could just as easily wind up 7-6. That's because everyone is vulnerable this year. Everyone has questions. Only one team (barring another pesky split championship) will be able to answer them all.


The Contenders
Auburn
Cal
Clemson
Florida State
Georgia Tech
Iowa
Louisville
Miami
Michigan
Nebraska
Notre Dame
Ohio State
South Carolina
USC
Utah
West Virginia
 

DIRTY Diapers

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It should be a great season... A lot of teams can win the title this year and I wouldn't be surprised to see some dark horses, as well.
 

AR182

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DIRTY Diapers said:
It should be a great season... A lot of teams can win the title this year and I wouldn't be surprised to see some dark horses, as well.


it should be a great season but i don't see that many contenders.

utah will not be a contender based on their conference.

w. virg.will not be a contender based on their schedule.

i would also eliminate for various reasons....calif., clemson, g.t.,nebraska, & so.carolina
 

MLine

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West Vag's schedule won't be a factor if they run the table and nobody else does, it will definitely be a problem if there are two other undefeated teams

I don't think they get by Louisville and Pitt on the road, time will tell
 

taoist

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Call me a "scott4usc" if you want, but...don't count out Tennessee. 1998 "was a rebuilding year" after Mannings reign.... That year a "fluke" fumble late in the game by an "experienced" Arkansas QB was a turning point in an undefeated NC season.... It could happen to almost any of the "top tier" schools...and a handful of others. Let's just all agree this THIS SEASON...anything can happen. ;)


p.s. Tenn will beat Cal.... :)
 

DeadPrez

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south carolina :mj07:

georgia tech :mj07:

utah :mj07:

contenders for what???

they couldn't be referring to the national championship could they??? :142smilie
 

lowell

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just played auburn-west vir in natl title game plus 8750
 
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