On paper, to the average fan, it looks as though Ole Miss would be the sure fire pick. However, as others have noted, the rebels have lots of new players and coaches.
The rebels offensive line struggled last year under first year coach George Delone's new trap blocking scheme. Delone is out and enter 27 year Miami coaching veteran Art Kehoe. Kehoe likes the trap blocking scheme also, but has simplified the blocking scheme. The players have said that Delone wanted them to learn too much, too quick. Kehoe has focused on fundementals & technique. Expect a much improved OM oline. Freshman All American Micheal Oher has a year under his belt. The rebels biggest question on the oline is depth. In the SEC, this line may struggle against the powerhouses. However, the undersized (quicker) Memphis defensive line should pose no problem for the rebels. The tigers are so thin in the dline that they will rely on two players that quit at Ole Miss and transfered to Memphis. Corey Mills quit the Ole Miss team after playing in one game his freshman season (ironically against Memphis). Jada Brown quit after roughly one week of practice last season for the rebels. Rebels easily get the edge in this matchup.
For the last two seasons the OM offense has struggled mightly. David Cutcliffe failed to develop his quarterbacks and failed to recruit a successor to Eli Manning. Hence his firing. Ed Orgeron inheritted a team with no playmakers due to poor recruiting by Cutcliffe. That will not be the case this season. Everyone knows all about Brent Schaeffer. He may start out rusty due to a late arrival. However, his ability to make positives out of busted plays with his scrambling will help the rebels. If you'll remember, it was Joe Lee Dunn's aggressive attacking style that allowed the rebels to win last years game on a busted play. If Joe Lee doesn't contain Schaeffer, he'll beat them with his legs. Last season, the rebel offense was lead by OC Noel Mazzone. Mazzone was fired last season after it was widely reported that he an Orgeron never saw eye to eye on philosophy. It was reported that Mazzone caused strife within the ranks and divided the team into two camps, his and Orgeron's. He is now gone and fired Miami OC Dan Werner has entered. Werner is an unknown. The Miami offense was not itself in a few games last season and was blown out by LSU in the Peach Bowl. The rebel running backs will feature BenJarvis Gree-Ellis. BJGE tranferred to OM after two standout seasons at Indiana. He made the all freshman Big 10 team after ranking third in the conference with 98 yards per game. That year he ran for over 200 yards against Penn St. He led Indiana in rushing his sophomore season before transferring. He is a north/south runner and has looked good in the spring after practicing with the team last year. The rebels WR core is their biggest question. Mike Burnell is a burner who recently ran an indoor 4.25 forty. He is the most experienced of the recievers, yet he is only a sophomore. The other two reciever positions will most likely be shared amongst superstar freshmen newcomers Marshay Green, Shay Hodges, Dexter McCluster, and Markeith Summers. The rebel TE will be manned by former high school QB All American Robert Lane. Lane made the switch to TE last year and excelled. He is the rebels most consistent playmaker. The biggest question mark for Memphis will be their LBs and secondary. All CUSA safety Wesley Smith (ironically from Oxford, MS) is the only star in the group. The secondary & LB's will be a weakness for the Tigers. In the matchup of Ole Miss skill players vs. Memphis LBs & Secondary, give the Rebels the nod.
The Memphis skill positions on offense will be solid with the addition of QB Martin Hankins. Hankin lit it up in D1AA. He may find that an SEC defense is a little faster than he is used to. Joseph Doss is no DeAngelo by any stretch of the imagination, but he should be a solid tailback. The Memphis WR's are huge and could give the smaller rebel DB's fits. However, the secondary is one the best parts of the rebel defense. Jamarca "the rattlesnake" Sanford lays wood like no other SEC safety. He started every game last season as a redshirt freshman. The other safety position is manned by senior Charles Clark. The corner positions will be solid with 4th year starter Trumaine McBride & junior Nate Banks. Call this matchup a tossup.
The Memphis Oline is is big, experienced, and underrated. They will be going against a retooled Rebel defensive line that lost 4 seniors. The rebels aren't very deep on the defensive line, but there is some talent there. Peria Jerry will be a force for the rebels and newcomer (by way of juco from Mich St) Haywood Howard will also man a tackle spot. I give Memphis a slight edge here.
Special teams should be a question mark for both teams. OM struggled with field goal kicking last season, while Memphis loses outstanding kicker Stephen Gostkowski. Both teams have solid punters. I would call this area a tossup if it weren't for the rebels two new return men. Watch for McCluster, Wallace, and Marshay Green to cause fireworks. They can all blaze a trail and have been showing out in the early practices.
Intangibles, I give an edge to the Tigers. Their staff & players have more cohesiveness. The rebels have lots of newcomers.
IMO, the -3 line should be at -5. If it stays at -3, it is a bargain. The rebels clearly have the better players. However, Ed Orgeron still has to prove himself as a head coach. The addition of Kehoe & Werner from Miam will reap instant benefits. Tommy West is a great coach who will have his squad prepared for this game. Randy Fitchner (Memphis OC) will have his offense ready as usual. This game is like a bowl game for Memphis. The rebels are favored in the series 42-10-2, but the Tigers have won 4 of the last 10. They have many players who were jilted during recruiting by the rebels and have a chip on their shoulders. They always feel that htis is a game they can win. It won't matter. Joe Lee Dunn's defense won't be able to keep them in the game.