The Future of Oil: Four Scenarios

djv

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I believe you young guys will see tons of change. Might even start in less then 20 years. Some things are starting now. But they will build slow. Many say Americans at least most of us will not change our habits till after we hit $3.50 a gallon. I do know bus rider ship in my city is up over 700% this year. Amtrak I see is up over 30% last year. So some changes are under way.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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Is interesting but believe it applys to many more countries than U.S.
Than there is greed factor--you think China-russia ect wouldn't sell us their oil if they could buy it cheaper from middle east--did you know we now export some of "our own " oil?
Kuwaitt-Iraq-UAE are in top 5 countries of oil reserves--don't see any falling in line with Iran.

I am much more concerned with short term price of oil. Given fact of current middle east--our main pipeline under repair--and hurricane season just approaching--another major hurricane in gulf wold have verysignificant effect on price of oil.

As for as long term--and "all" middle east playing hardball--won't happen. Look at it from their prospective--would we suffer long term dramatic effect on our way of life or simply take their oil which we are quite capable of doing.Who would/could stop us if push come to shove.
 

gardenweasel

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"the bunker"
i was wondering what happened to all that strong language about energy independence and the need to wean ourselves from foreign oil, and all that whining about the price of gasoline?..... when push came to shove, the house voted to continue the offshore drilling ban...... because oil wells are so ugly?....sheesh...

and yet, they complain about the high price of gasoline, and our dependence on foreign oil?...

here's a good idea, lets take our dumbest people that get through college, who cannot be engineers, architechs, doctors, scientists, or even a good lawyer or journalist, and put them in charge of the country.......

whaaa?....that`s already happened?

anybody else getting sick of the hypocrisy?....from both sides....
we need to print the names of those who vote against drilling, so the next time they or their constituents whine about gas prices, it can be thrown back in their faces....

i hope this isn`t the same bunch who scream that we didn't connect the dots before 9/11, then when we try and connect the dots, we're invading people's privacy....

but if we get hit again, why didn't we connect the dots?


thanks for posting,dooley....excellent read......
 

Happy Hippo

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i was wondering what happened to all that strong language about energy independence and the need to wean ourselves from foreign oil, and all that whining about the price of gasoline?..... when push came to shove, the house voted to continue the offshore drilling ban...... because oil wells are so ugly?....sheesh...

and yet, they complain about the high price of gasoline, and our dependence on foreign oil?...

gw - did the House really vote to continue the offshore drilling ban? The last news I heard about this was at the end of June and they voted to lift the ban.

And by the way, there is a lot more that goes into it than oil wells being ugly. Especially for the Inuits in Alaska. One of my best friends is Inuit and they LIVE off of the ocean. There is permafrost in Barrow, Alaska - 6 inches below the ground. They cannot grow food - they live off of whales, seals, fruits of the sea. If there were to be an oil leakage in their area, their complete culture and lives would be finished. They have been there for hundreds of years - do we have a right to put their livelihood at risk so we can drive our cars to Walmart?

After re-election Bush cut the renewable energy research budget through DOE by 2/3. He should re-fund that so we can explore alternative energy resources. In this age of technological genius, we should be able to wean ourselves off of oil. It is just not in the best interest of the corporations/semi-fascist government that is ruling over us.
 
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gardenweasel

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i believe it was being blocked in may.... remember reading that it was a struggle getting through... .....now,i just read that it finally passed the house in late june............and has a dubious future in the senate.....thanks for the clarification...

i hope this doesn`t follow the partial border wall that was passed and then the funding was nixed....

this stuff is awfully difficult to finalize......

it`s a little depressing that cuba is drilling for oil with china 60 miles off the florida coast.........while we lollygag.....

i`m pretty sure that cuba/china`s environmental checks and balances fall a bit short of the measures that we would be taking....
 

ImFeklhr

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I'm not sure who it was on this board that mentioned it a couple weeks ago, but I have always favored the theory that we shouldn't be in a rush to tap all our oil reserves.

Might as well buy up and use oil from foreign sources, and save the oil we control for when shit REALLY hits the fan.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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some pros and cons on drilling--
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_Refuge_drilling_controversy


--on the lighter side
One of villigers was 1st to buy snowmoblie in village of Inuit --after being out only few hours he pushed snowmoblie over 3 miles back to shop in sub zero weather. The mechanic put it up on rack and oil was dripping everywhere. Told villiger-- your prob is obvious--you blew a seal.

Villiger-somewhat embarrassed brushed his mustache and --no sir -thats frost. :)
 
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gardenweasel

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"the bunker"
I'm not sure who it was on this board that mentioned it a couple weeks ago, but I have always favored the theory that we shouldn't be in a rush to tap all our oil reserves.

Might as well buy up and use oil from foreign sources, and save the oil we control for when shit REALLY hits the fan.


i understand your point,im...my question is,how long does it actually take to finally get the ball rolling?.....

i don`t think we can snap our fingers and produce oil from new drilling.....that hasn`t even begun...and refine it.....in a matter of weeks..or even months....

because, the shit may hit the fan in a hurry...

i know we have some reserves....i guess the question would be,would the reserves,in and of themselves,sustain us until we mined and processed the new resources?.....

i have to go...maybe someone can check it out.....

:thinking:
 

djv

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WE have to reserves. At least we did. The one always talked about. A reserve for national disaster and military. A military only reserve that could run our military for 30 days. Believe one is in South. And military one is in south west. Only difference is one can be used for military and many other reasons. The military one is only for there use.
 

ferdville

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While drilling for oil could well pose environmental problems for Inuits, it would also be a huge economic boom for them. I have read many articles where they have encouraged the drilling due to the economic gains.
 

Happy Hippo

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BARROW, Alaska - As mayor of Alaska?s oil-rich North Slope Borough, Edward Itta understands that developing the region?s energy resources can pay for better schools and much-needed infrastructure improvements.

But Itta also sees how greed for oil money can break down local Inupiat Eskimo culture and traditions that date back thousands of years and lead to drug use and other ills found in a modern society.

Having to walk a fine line to balance those two forces, the soft-spoken mayor is diplomatic and measured with his words -- except when it comes to drilling for oil in the Arctic Ocean and the threat this poses to Inupiat whaling traditions.

?We are emphatically and adamantly against offshore drilling,? said Itta, who is also a whaling captain. ?We do anything and everything to protect the whale. I shudder to even think what would happen in the event of a catastrophic spill.

?If they (oil companies and the federal government) destroy our way of life, what?s their alternative? They don?t have any and we don?t have a recourse.?

?We are still very much a subsistence-based community. We live off the land, we live off the sea. It?s a big part of our diet and culture,? said Itta. ?We were here before oil and we will be here after oil.?

For the complete article: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13440847/


Life in Barrow, Alaska is not an easy one. The sun doesn't set for months, and then it doesn't rise above the horizon for months. Like their mayor said, money leads to excesses for these people - my friend has told me MANY stories. When we were in college together, they outlawed alcohol there, because so many struggled with addiction. Suicide is rampant. Just two days ago, another man killed himself in their community, someone my friend was close with. She posted this blog, and it shows the true kinship they feel with the earth, something most of us do not feel because we are so industrialized and technologized (if that's a word).

"Why do we keep losing our young Inupiaq men and women? Why can't they stand tall on the nuna or on the siku and know where they come from, know who they come from? Where did we leave our ancestors? I cant help but think that I could have done something. Something, anything. I want there to be a category in the blog category called ancestors. I want to see a day when all my Inupiaq family will remember who they are. I want to see everyone wake up. I want to say to those out there who are having a hard time, yes life can get difficult, life can get painful, I know Ive been there too, but you are not alone---you are never alone. We walk with our grandparents, our great grandparents our great great aunts and uncles, our namesakes from millennia ago who knew not what the function of television was but know deeper fundamental truths. They knew the secret of life, the great power that is the connection to the land, the connection to each other. And they live inside us, they live with us, they watch what we do and reach out to whisper in our ears. All we have to do is listen and be there to remind each other that we are a strong people who have much to be proud of, that we are wise and old souls who have given the precious gift of life again."
 

gardenweasel

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"Life in Barrow, Alaska is not an easy one"...

but,it`ll get a helluva lot easier once those casino-igloos start popping up......

i wouldn`t bet against it....
 

djv

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I DO hope when we open up more of Alaska and Florida off shore drilling we do something smart. First it all stays here no more shipping 30% over seas. Second we continue to put some in reserves. Say about 30%. So that we don't keep counting on oil as we do now. And keep the effort now on going to go more directions. If we just go get more and keep making same mistakes that we have since 1980 we are loosing the battle. If it takes the government to get in middle so be it. One thing for sure big oil does not give a shit about you and me.
 

TonyTT

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One thing for sure big oil does not give a shit about you and me.

I've worked for the bastards for 30 plus years now, from SOHIO to BP to PREMCOR, now VALERO and agree 100% with that statement.
Just last week I was ordered to cut feed on my unit. After asking WHY with margins being as high as they are....I was told because we're not moving the gasoline. My only response was...
WHAT? Then I'm thinking why in the hell is the price still so high! Of course I switched my oil stock 401k over to a money fund as soon as possible....sure enough the report came out today about gasoline inventories being high and the oil stocks tumbled. Bottom line here is that oil per bbl is still over priced and should be coming back down in the next few months....short of any more BS they may "drum up" in the middle east!
TT
 
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s_dooley24

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i was wondering what happened to all that strong language about energy independence and the need to wean ourselves from foreign oil, and all that whining about the price of gasoline?..... when push came to shove, the house voted to continue the offshore drilling ban...... because oil wells are so ugly?....sheesh...

and yet, they complain about the high price of gasoline, and our dependence on foreign oil?...

here's a good idea, lets take our dumbest people that get through college, who cannot be engineers, architechs, doctors, scientists, or even a good lawyer or journalist, and put them in charge of the country.......

whaaa?....that`s already happened?

anybody else getting sick of the hypocrisy?....from both sides....
we need to print the names of those who vote against drilling, so the next time they or their constituents whine about gas prices, it can be thrown back in their faces....

i hope this isn`t the same bunch who scream that we didn't connect the dots before 9/11, then when we try and connect the dots, we're invading people's privacy....

but if we get hit again, why didn't we connect the dots?


thanks for posting,dooley....excellent read......

follow up to GW's point on offfshore drilling legislature



Oil and Gas: Drilling for a Compromise
Competing offshore drilling bills from both houses of Congress may end up being no more than chum in election-year waters


http://www.businessweek.com/investo...36.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index_investing
 
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