preseason week #3 plays & info...

AR182

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6-6...+.10*


2*u 37(120) miami/car....over the years i have developed a system that calls for the total in this game to go under in 62.5% of the time.

here are the qb rotations that i got from another site....i capitialized what i thought would be important for my under play.....

Miami Dolphins - QB Rotation: Daunte Culpepper (first half), Joey Harrington, Cleo Lemon, Brock Berlin.
THE STARTERS ARE EXPECTED TO PLAY THE FIRST HALF, and Saban said they might also complete the first series in the third quarter Thursday.

Secondary thin. Eddie Jackson is back at practice after missing the past week with an abdominal injury. The Dolphins are still waiting for cornerbacks Michael Lehan (knee) and Travis Daniels (ankle) to return to practice. Both missed practice Monday and are not expected to play against Carolina. With so many injuries, rookie safety Jason Allen found himself on the cornerback. "We had him at corner because we don't have any corners," said Nick Saban. Jason Allen split time between safety and cornerback during team drills and looked good playing both.

More speed on offense: No. 3 receiver, rookie Derek Hagan, who has the size (6-2) and speed to pose problems in the slot, is making a very strong push for the job, which will be determined in preseason games. WR Kelly Campbell remains a candidate for the No. 3 job because of his speed. Safety Travares Tillman said Miami's offense has been tougher to defend in camp than last year not only because of Daunte Culpepper, but because "Campbell stretches the field a lot."

Carolina Panthers - QB Rotation: Jake Delhomme, Chris Weinke, Stephan LeFlors, rookie Brett Basanez.

The offense will be tweaked to take advantage of the speed of RB DeShaun Foster and rookie RB DeAngelo Williams and that WON'T BE UNVEILED UNTIL THE REGULAR SEASON. Williams and DeShaun Foster haven't looked overly impressive, but the OFFENSIVE LINE HASN'T PLAYED ALL THAT WELL, AND THE PANTHERS AREN'T GOING TO SHOW NEW WRINKLES IN THE PRESEAON. Foster will open the year as the featured back, but Williams will get considerable time.

All-pro wide receiver Steve Smith is back. Smith sat out 17 days (counting off days) and missed 24 practices while he rehabilitated. Smith hasn't been involved in contact drills though.

eventhough the starters are expected to have additional playing time, i expect both offenses to play a vanilla type of game & i look for carolina to try & run the ball to get their offensive line ready for opening day...

good luck..
 

IE

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All-pro wide receiver Steve Smith is back. Smith sat out 17 days (counting off days) and missed 24 practices while he rehabilitated. Smith hasn't been involved in contact drills though.








Wide receiver Steve Smith almost certainly will not play tonight. Not only did he appear to tweak his strained hamstring muscle during a practice toward the end of training camp at Wofford College, but he is nursing a painful in-grown toenail.
http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?t=249858
 

AR182

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in my travels this week i picked up 2 systems....


teams in week 3 coming off 2 consecutive losses (both su & ats) that played on the road in their previous loss & are playing home this week are...

14-5-2 ats (73.6%) from 1996-2006..

play k.c. & tenn....


teams coming off 2 consecutive wins (both su & ats) that are playing away from home this week & it week 3 of preseaon are....

19-7-1 ats (73.1%) from 1996-2006...

play houston...


good luck.
 

vyrus858

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AR, I absolutley love the way you cap, and your systems...Honestly, the way you crunch these numbers and come up with these trends is something I really appreciate, and you are always mentioned by me when the subject top cappers in footbal comes up...keep it up.

Thank you for your comment in my thread in the gen forum, I feel really pothetic going back and forth with those guys, but after 3 years of letting them think they "got me" I just had enough...bet they never saw that coming...im usually not that immature and thank you again for hte kind words when it all began...

Cyrus
 

vyrus858

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6-6...+.10*


2*u 37(120) miami/car....over the years i have developed a system that calls for the total in this game to go under in 62.5% of the time.



Just played it...made a little money in bases yest so payed hte extra juice and bought the game up to 39 from 36...-170, lotta juice to lay for a preaseason total but I like it at almost 40
 

ctownguy

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Nice call on the Carolina game my friend. May the Guru stay on the winning trail.

This extra preseason money is gravy.

Thanks:mj06:
 

AR182

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thanks guys...really appreciate it...


tonight i'm playing....


2*balt.+3(130)......

i have no system for this play....just think that balt. is the better team......i like their qb rotations more & think their running backs are better....

it seems that minn. is a popular play tonight judging by the various forums that i visit...

i also checked a book that gives betting % & they list that 78% of their action is on minn....& 22% is on balt....but they haven't moved the line to -3....but i did notice that the l.v. hilton's book went to minn.-1.5.....

there have been 48 preseason games thus far this year....22 opened at 3.....last week minn. beat the defending super bowl champs (steelers) but instead of openeing at -3, minn. opened at -2.5....last week arizona came out flat the week after playing pitts....& i think minn. will also come out flat tonight....

good luck...
 

Statman02

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looks to me like ALL the money is on Balt........at least at Bodog ........their line is Minn -3 +105 and Balt +3 -125........they are dealing a twenty cent line on this game and making the Balt fans pay all twenty cents.....anyone have any information on this,,,,,,is Minn throwing in the towell early or anything ??
 

AR182

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looks to me like ALL the money is on Balt........at least at Bodog ........their line is Minn -3 +105 and Balt +3 -125........they are dealing a twenty cent line on this game and making the Balt fans pay all twenty cents.....anyone have any information on this,,,,,,is Minn throwing in the towell early or anything ??

statman...

the site i use for percentages has.....

39% on balt.
61% on minn.

minn. is till -2.5...& the hilton has it at -1.5...

good luck.
 

vyrus858

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damn AR got caught up at work and thought the gam was at 5 (pacific time)...gl, I would have tailed you as usual if i didnt blow it and check the right time....anyhow, thanks alot for the under yest, got alil scary in the 2nd and bit of the 3rd, but a 3 point 4th sealed the deal...CANNOT WAIT for NCAAFB in 6 days! honestly th most exciting time of the year, and we get almost half a year of it...love it...when you going to have all your plays up for NCAA bud?
 

AR182

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vyrus....i'll have my ncaa plaus posted in a few days....

boy i wasn't even close with my balt. play last night...they came out flat & the 70 yd. int.return for a td by minn. in the 2nd quarter changed the momentum of the whole game...but that's football...

since college football starts next week this will probably me my final nflx bet....might as well make it my largest...

10* jax..ml (160)....

made this play last night right after the balt. game.

last week both t.b. & jax. lost at home & scored 10 points each. tonight jax. is home again & i expect them to put out a very solid effort. despite last weeks lost, jax. is still 16-7 su (69.5%) in home nflx games, including 5-2 (71%) with this present coach.

i like jax. qb rotation of leftwich (may not play that much), garrard, & gray (threw td passes in each nflx game) alot better than t.b.'s rotation of simms, gradkowski, & rattay (who isn't expected to play). i also read that t.b. is having major offensive line problems.

i got the following from another site..

TAMPA BAY -
(08/26 06:29am) The Times reports - Whereas many teams are playing some starters into the
second half this weekend, Gruden said he and his coaches intend to play many reserves to
clarify personnel decisions to be made in the coming days.

JACKSONVILLE -
(08/26 06:35am) The Sentinel reports - Unlike Gruden, Del Rio plans to play his starters
on both sides into the second half.


finally a moneyline system that supports this play....

play against a road dog vs. the moneyline (t.b.) after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers against an opponent after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers.

record for the last 10 seasons is 24-2=92.3%

good luck.
 

AR182

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man you never know with sports betting...


i went out for dinner a little into the the 2nd quarter & it was 8-0.... leftwich looked horrible...during dinner my wife said that i looked pre-occupied....of course i couldn't tell her that i was more interested in watching the game than having dinner with her & our friends....but i was really annoyed that the restaurant had the diamondbacks game on all of the tv's....& just saw the score.i was pleasantly surprised.... i'm going to try to look at the box score....

the game that surprised me the most tonight was the beating that wash. got...i wonder if that's an indication of what's ahead for them...
 

lowell

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nice call on jax. i jumped on board for the same play and also used them in a few parlays. thanks for the pick. appreciate your work
 

Jaxx

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Nice call on Jax. Wished I would have seen it. I was on the over as I knew Delrio and the team wanted points in a big way trying to get the media and fans off their back and Jack did leave the first teamers in until they scored in the second half. Unfortunatly the second teamers did most of the scoring and the first team offense showed nothing in the first half that will back down the media and fans around here from bitching about the lack of offense. Looks like some unders may be in order in the regular season. Good luck with the regular season!
 
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