nfl futures bet...

AR182

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Nov 9, 2000
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i usually don't wager on futures bet...don't like to wait that long for my money..but played these 2..



2*cleve. under 6.5 wins (-115)...

basically i'm betting that charlie frye is untested to give cleve. 7 wins. last year frye went 2-3 in the 5 games he started. however, he only managed 1 td drive in his 5 starts & it was after the browns recovered a fumble on their opponents 24 yd. line...so, imo this does not mean he is ready for prime time.

looking at cleve's schedule, the browns are only 1 of 2 teams that get no teams looking ahead to a monday night game & no opponents off a monday night game. in addition only 3 of the browns 10 non-divisional opponents this season are off divisional games.

i don't think cleve. will get more than 1 win, with an untested qb from the other 3 teams in their division (balt., cin., & pitts.)

if you look at cleve'sother games, you will see that the browns will face the tough afc west teams (denver, k.c., s.d., & oak.). of those teams oak.is the closest to cleve's level, & they will be out for revenge from last years loss to cleve, a game where the final outcome was handed to the browns by the officials. so i think cleve. may get 1 win from this divison.

the other divison that the browns face is the nfc south (t.b., carolina, atl., & n.o.). the only team that i see clev.having a chance of beating from that division is n.o.

cleve. get to play the jets & houston also.

so i see cleve. winning 4 or 5 games this year.


2*houston under 5.5 wins (+125)...


it looks like the books expect houston's new coach to dramatically improve the texan's wins by 4 wins from the 2 they won from last year. that's a lot to ask for a team that gave up an average of 365 yds. on defense per game & gained an average of only 253 yds. on offense.

whenever a new coach takes over, he tries to install a completely new scheme. usually the team gets worse before it gets better.

looking at houston's schedule, i see them losing 5 of the 6 games they play within their divison (indy, jax., & tenn.). i see them at best splitting with tenn.

houston also gets to play the afc east teams ( n.e., miami, the jets, & buff.) & the nfc east teams ( giants, wash., dallas, & phil.). i see 1 maybe 2 wins from this group...if they are lucky.

the other 2 teams they face are the browns & the raiders.

houston has a very tough early season schedule.their first 6 opponents are phil,indy,wash.,miami, dallas, & jax....& then they go on a 3 game road trip.there is a very good chance that houston will be 1-9 or 0-10 in those first 10 games. winning 5 or 6 games after that is going to be pretty tough.

i see houston winning 3 or 4 games this year.

good luck.
 
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addikted

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Jan 18, 2005
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I like your analysis of each team and their schedule, especially the Browns writeup. I may have to tag along on your browns bet, although I'm going to be rooting FOR them this year of course, so betting against their total wins for the season may hinder my excitement just a little....so I'll probably just lay off but I like your thinking and wish you luck as always
 

poperebel

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Mar 28, 2006
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Good call on Cleveland. I just placed my bet at under 6.5 (-110).

I also played a few college futures while there...

U of Tennessee under 8.5 wins (-135)
Clemson under 8.5 wins (+140)
LSU under 9.5 wins (-120)
 
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