plays & info for 8/31-9/4...

[AR182]

this is info that i read in a preseason magaizine about college football stability & thought that some might find it interesting....

in no particular order...

teams that have gone into a season with changes to their coaches, coordinators, or starting qb have generally covered the spread at about 47%.

teams with new head coaches are 45.3% ats in their first season & just 42.1% in the first 5 weeks of that season since 2003.

teams with changeover at both head coach & starting qb have covered just 41.4% in their games over the last 3 years.

good luck.

 

[ctownguy]

Where's the plays, the meat, the gusto:mj07: :142smilie

 

[AR182]

here are 2 ctown..

in case anybody is interested here is last year's record in college football....

regular season....173-109-4....+65.20*
bowl games........10-6............+7.63*

i think last year was a fluke...i really don't think i'm as good that record.

none of the trends or systems that i post are mine. i subscribe to many newsletters & pick up things in my travels around the net.

i played these early..

2*u 48(115) ark. st./army...

both teams are breaking in new qbs & both have at least 8 defensive starters back from last yeas teams.

here is a system that supports this play...

play under all teams where the total is between 42- 49 in non-conference games between 2 teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning...

last 5 years.....24-2 ats...92.3 %


2*u 52(105) utep/sd st....

here again both teams are returning at least 8 starters on defense. also sd st. has a whole new coaching staff & think it will take time for them to completely pick up the new playbook . as a result i think sdst. will try to control the clock & line of scrimmage by running the ball & try to play keep the ball out of utep's hands....

good luck.

 

[ajoytoy]

hope you are as successful as last year Al...gl and as always thanks for the great info you post for us to read

 

[AR182]

thanks toy..really appreciate it..

adding...

2*neb.-20...

i've read that neb. has really concentrated on their running game this year in practices & together with the qb, taylor having experience in the west coast offense, neb. should really be strong on the offensive side of the ball. defensively, neb. ranked #1 in sacks with 50 last year & 33 of those sacks are returning.

lou tech, on the other hand has 2 defensive starters coming back from last years team & their qb rotation has thrown 2 combined passes in competition..i don't think lou tech scores more than 3 points in this game.

since 9/03, lou tech has played 6 non-conference lined games on the road & have lost them all by at least 20 points (outscored by an average of 44-9), with no covers. neb. has covered 9 in a row when they score more than 28 points in a game.

i have a friend who does pretty well in half time bets & suggested that i start looking at them also.

here are 2 first half bets...

2*u 23 temple/buff 1st half....

we know that both teams usually stink. this year both teams have new coaches bringing in new systems to each team. temple is also breaking in a new qb...

2*u 23 (105) utah st. /wyoming 1st half...

here is a system that supports both plays...

play under - all teams where the first half total is 21.5 to 24.5 (temple & wyoming) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight losses, with an inexperienced qb as starter, in the first month of the season.....ats record is....24-3 over the last 5 seasons....88.9%

imo, it makes sense that teams that are coming off 3 or more straight losses at the end of last season & also breaking in new qbs, especially in the very first game will play the first half very conservatively..to build up the new qbs confidence.

good luck.

 

[cooz3]

good stuff..good info on the systems...good luck this season AR182

cooz

 

[taoist]

...already had my eye on Neb. Thanks for the confidence bump. I added them today. Best of luck this season, Al.

 

[freelancc]

finally... the season is ACTUALLY here..:toast:

 

[Irish]

GL AR
Staying away from the cornboys because I don't know if they are the team thats started last year or finished. Still go get em

Cheers
Irish

 

[vyrus858]

regular season....173-109-4....+65.20*
bowl games........10-6............+7.63*

i think last year was a fluke...i really don't think i'm as good that record.

none of the trends or systems that i post are mine. i subscribe to many newsletters & pick up things in my travels around the net.

I dont care if your wife is making these systems, the fact that you find profitable systems that are mixed in with thousands of other systems that dont win us a dime in the longrun, is a a solid handicapping attribute in itself...

and I bet to differ about your record being a fluke, 64 games over .500 in 180+ games is pure talent...glad to see you posting your picks, and its nice to see one of the most succesful cappers be humble..that way you wont get all the crap-talking and lowblows that the confident cappers get when they have ab ad week, which results in them leaving to other boards....you are a true gem to the forum, and im glad you got your plays posted...as always, will be tailing you big...

CONGRATS on the Jags the other night, 10* hit on a preaseason play...doesnt get much better

 

[taoist]

I dont care if your wife is making these systems, the fact that you find profitable systems that are mixed in with thousands of other systems that dont win us a dime in the longrun, is a a solid handicapping attribute in itself...

and I bet to differ about your record being a fluke, 64 games over .500 in 180+ games is pure talent...glad to see you posting your picks, and its nice to see one of the most succesful cappers be humble..that way you wont get all the crap-talking and lowblows that the confident cappers get when they have ab ad week, which results in them leaving to other boards....you are a true gem to the forum, and im glad you got your plays posted...as always, will be tailing you big...

CONGRATS on the Jags the other night, 10* hit on a preaseason play...doesnt get much better

I actually agree with everything that you said. :scared ...can this be the same vyrus that shows up in the gen forum or were you just FUBAR the other night??? LOL :142smilie


edit: p.s. ...except you "beg" to differ, not "bet" - that is unless you're a TRUE contrarian.

 

[D-Money]

Thanks for posting AR. Look forward to following your plays ths year. You are without question one of the best cappers in here and I always look forward to your posts. Thanks again, and GL on your plays as I'll be on you coat tail.

 

[DIRTY Diapers]

Good luck AR... Will be reading some of your suggestions this year...

 

[AR182]

thanks alot guys..really appreciate it.


i added another 2* on neb.....think it's a very favorable situation for them.

i also played..

2*houston-13....

i didn't want to play this game because i don't like to lay points on the road. but then the judge mentioned in another thread that this isn't really a road game for houston..the vicinity if this game site is pretty close to the houston campus.

rice has a new coach that's installing a spread type of passing offense this season.....the problem is that the players were recruited by the previous coach to run an option type of offense..this is the samething that went on at syracuse last year & we all know how inept syracuse's offense was, especially in the beginning of the season.

this is a conference game for houston & is led by a 4 year starter at qb & a defense that has 13 of it's top 14 tacklers returning this year.....while rice's defense was next to the last in scoring defense last year & has given up an average of 41 ppg in their last 15 games.

here is something that you may find interesting...

houston is 46-11-1 ats (80.7%) in it's last 58 wins & that includes a 25-2 ats (92.5%) if the game was away from their home field & houston scored 29 or more points.

here is something else that is interesting about new coaches with lousy teams that i picked up in a newsletter...

since 1990....4 win (or less) teams with a new 1st year head coach, are 29-48-1 ats ( 37.6%) in their first game of the season...5 teams fit this criterior...

buffalo, middle tenn., rice, idaho, & temple.

now pair a new coach lousy team against a good team (won 6 or more games last year) in season openers...& their record is 4-40 su & 11-30-1 ats (26.8%)....the team that fits this criterior is...rice.

good luck.

 

[vyrus858]

4* on Nebraska for you = 4unit play on Nebraska for me...got stuck with a 21.5 pt line, so i bought it down to 21...hopefully the 1 point diff in our lines wont matter...BOL AR, and thank you for the plays

 

[watrdogg]

Always look forward to reading your posts. Best of luck this season!!

 

[vyrus858]

sorry wrong thread...thought it was mine

GL

 

[vyrus858]

sorry same mistake

 

[Hooks]

AR, Let's get it going, all my best Hooks.

 

[addikted]

AR you sure have some good reasoning and some good systems to support your plays. I certainly enjoy reading your post and will look forward to them all year long in both NFL and college. As always best of luck and let's all hit the books hard this year!