plays & info for 8/31-9/4...
- Thread starter AR182
- Start date
thanks guys....enjoy sharing some of the stuff that i find...appreciate all of the comments...
i have added 3 unders so far...
don't know if it will hold up this week but my theory is that there is so much pressure for these coaches to win...that teams with new coaches or new qbs will play pretty close to the vest for the first game of the season for fear of making mistakes.
last year unders hit at a 58% rate for the first week of 2005...
2*u 45(120) temple/buff.....
both teams have new coaches which means new systems (usually takes time to learn) & temple has a new qb...
2*u 56 nw/miami o...
nw has a new coach while miami o has a new qb...
2*u 52 wisc / bg....
bg lost from last year's team their leading passer, rusher, & receivers....so they will start a new qb, who from what i have read is a better runner than passer...wisc's starting qb from last year is recuperating from knee surgery & may not be ready for this game. so wisc. may start a new qb also...wisc has a very big offensive line so i see them pounding the ball for most of the game.
good luck.
i have added 3 unders so far...
don't know if it will hold up this week but my theory is that there is so much pressure for these coaches to win...that teams with new coaches or new qbs will play pretty close to the vest for the first game of the season for fear of making mistakes.
last year unders hit at a 58% rate for the first week of 2005...
2*u 45(120) temple/buff.....
both teams have new coaches which means new systems (usually takes time to learn) & temple has a new qb...
2*u 56 nw/miami o...
nw has a new coach while miami o has a new qb...
2*u 52 wisc / bg....
bg lost from last year's team their leading passer, rusher, & receivers....so they will start a new qb, who from what i have read is a better runner than passer...wisc's starting qb from last year is recuperating from knee surgery & may not be ready for this game. so wisc. may start a new qb also...wisc has a very big offensive line so i see them pounding the ball for most of the game.
good luck.
Good Luck this season AR
Your thread's are among the first I read each week!
keep up the great work
Your thread's are among the first I read each week!
keep up the great work
like houston and nebraska.....and i`m gonna put on my level 3 hazmat suit and play both mac home doggies tonight lightly.....
g.l. your highness.....:toast:
g.l. your highness.....:toast:
thanks guys..appreciate it.
final bet for today...
2*miss.st.+7.....
a few reasons why i like miss. st...
i think miss. st. keeps this game close because they return a verteran team & i also feel that they are stronger on both sides of the line, especially when they are on defense.so. car. returns 2 starters from last years starting offensive line & return 5 starters from their defense. sc also lost 2 players in the 2ndary who was drafted by the nfl.
next week sc has a revenge game against georgia...i wonder how much prep time they devoted to this game.
also i read that dogs with 17 or more returning starters who won at least 3 games the previous season are 37-19 ats (66%) in their season opener.
i think the home dog in this conference game will keep it within the number.
good luck.
final bet for today...
2*miss.st.+7.....
a few reasons why i like miss. st...
i think miss. st. keeps this game close because they return a verteran team & i also feel that they are stronger on both sides of the line, especially when they are on defense.so. car. returns 2 starters from last years starting offensive line & return 5 starters from their defense. sc also lost 2 players in the 2ndary who was drafted by the nfl.
next week sc has a revenge game against georgia...i wonder how much prep time they devoted to this game.
also i read that dogs with 17 or more returning starters who won at least 3 games the previous season are 37-19 ats (66%) in their season opener.
i think the home dog in this conference game will keep it within the number.
good luck.
WOW AR, you are already 3-0 on your first 3 unders!
I hope the trend continues as I am on two or three of them myself. Thanks for the excellent work!
I hope the trend continues as I am on two or three of them myself. Thanks for the excellent work!
great start my man...we got a bad beat on that Miss St play as the starting QB getting injured the first half made it even more evident that a horrible offense was now in even a deeper whole when it came to ball movement...regardless, great start
went 3-2 on thursday for +1.8*..
vyrus....
i read that you admitted that you owe twofingers the money.you should then do the right thing & pay him. not because you would get respect from other posters, but because of your own self-respect & because it's giving off negative vibes to the whole forum. if your not going to pay him then i just as soon you stay out of my threads & don't post to me. i have no respect for welchers & rather not deal with them.
vyrus....
i read that you admitted that you owe twofingers the money.you should then do the right thing & pay him. not because you would get respect from other posters, but because of your own self-respect & because it's giving off negative vibes to the whole forum. if your not going to pay him then i just as soon you stay out of my threads & don't post to me. i have no respect for welchers & rather not deal with them.
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thanks guys...appreciate the comments.
i don't how much respect i have from people here,but i always felt that people on the net should treat other people how they would in real life. if you treat people with respect, you usually get it back.
dd...
as far as tonight's game is concerned i have no play. nevada has a terrible record on the road while fresno st. is starting a whole new backfield from last year.
i post angles on games that look good on paper but they don't always come in when you want them to. that's why people should take other things into consideration when looking at game.
but here's an angle that i read in a newsletter....
play on any college football favorite in the first game of the season if they lost su as a favorite of 7+ points last year vs. a conference opponent also playing their first game of the season
since 1980 the ats record is 10-1 (91%)
play...fresno st. & miami fl.
i don't how much respect i have from people here,but i always felt that people on the net should treat other people how they would in real life. if you treat people with respect, you usually get it back.
dd...
as far as tonight's game is concerned i have no play. nevada has a terrible record on the road while fresno st. is starting a whole new backfield from last year.
i post angles on games that look good on paper but they don't always come in when you want them to. that's why people should take other things into consideration when looking at game.
but here's an angle that i read in a newsletter....
play on any college football favorite in the first game of the season if they lost su as a favorite of 7+ points last year vs. a conference opponent also playing their first game of the season
since 1980 the ats record is 10-1 (91%)
play...fresno st. & miami fl.
here are some additional games for sat all for 2*...
utah+4(120)...
ucla has lost their starting qb, running back,& tight end from last year.they also replaced their offensive coordinator, & running backs coach from last year. so i think it will take awhile for their offense to play together.on defense last year, ucla allowed their last 7 opponents to score an average of 46.7 points, with no team scoring less than 27 points.now they have to face an offense that is completely different than what they are used to seeing....utah has very unusally good offense & solid defense. they are also 18-2 ats in their last 20 as a dog.
g.t.+7...
this may be a sucker bet. n.d. is probably the most hyped team this year in college football & i don't know if it's justified. i want to see them prove it. we know they're very good on offense, but defense is a different matter. last year they caught a few teams that had down years (pitt, mich,wash,purdue,tenn, & syracuse) & yet their defense gave up an average of 397 yds. per game & yielded an average of 25 points per game. on the other hand, i'm no fan of g.t's qb, reggie ball. he is very inconsistent but i'm hoping that g.t. rebounds well from their humiliating loss in last years bowl game. they usually do well as a dog.also gt has a huge scheduling advantage as they have samford & troy up next, while n.d has penn.st. & mich.
okla.-21...
even without bomar, i think ou should roll in this game. they have 10 starters returning from a defense that allowed less than 3 yds. per carry, they have probably the best back in college football returning & have a qb who has game experience.i think they also want to erase last years humiliating opening game loss.uab is replacing their big time starting qb from last year with a qb who is 5 ft. 11 inches & the coach of uab is the brother of the coach of texas.i think ou is capable of pitching a shutout & wouldn't surprise me if the ou defense scores a td or 2.
mich.-25...
like ou, mich. is another team that want to erase last year's performance & i read that their camp has been unusally tense & determined to show that last years record was just a fluke..their 5 losses last year was the most since 1984.vandy is replacing their starting qb from last year & i think their defense will be susceptible to big plays from the mich. offense.
i don't have any more time for write-ups but am also playing these...
marshall+22...
u 41(120) memphis/miss.
byu+7
wash. st.+15
here is something that i read in a newsletter..
play on any team facing an opponent in the opening top 5 poll & getting less than 27 points.
"by analyzing the opening ap polls since 2002, it seems that the public has overreacted to the teams at the top of the charts. many fans want to jump on the bandwagon of these potential national champions & this causes a line adjustment"
this system has gone 7-0 ats when the play on team is not in the preseason top 20.
play on...n.illinois,georgia tech,wash. st.,& marshall.
good luck.
utah+4(120)...
ucla has lost their starting qb, running back,& tight end from last year.they also replaced their offensive coordinator, & running backs coach from last year. so i think it will take awhile for their offense to play together.on defense last year, ucla allowed their last 7 opponents to score an average of 46.7 points, with no team scoring less than 27 points.now they have to face an offense that is completely different than what they are used to seeing....utah has very unusally good offense & solid defense. they are also 18-2 ats in their last 20 as a dog.
g.t.+7...
this may be a sucker bet. n.d. is probably the most hyped team this year in college football & i don't know if it's justified. i want to see them prove it. we know they're very good on offense, but defense is a different matter. last year they caught a few teams that had down years (pitt, mich,wash,purdue,tenn, & syracuse) & yet their defense gave up an average of 397 yds. per game & yielded an average of 25 points per game. on the other hand, i'm no fan of g.t's qb, reggie ball. he is very inconsistent but i'm hoping that g.t. rebounds well from their humiliating loss in last years bowl game. they usually do well as a dog.also gt has a huge scheduling advantage as they have samford & troy up next, while n.d has penn.st. & mich.
okla.-21...
even without bomar, i think ou should roll in this game. they have 10 starters returning from a defense that allowed less than 3 yds. per carry, they have probably the best back in college football returning & have a qb who has game experience.i think they also want to erase last years humiliating opening game loss.uab is replacing their big time starting qb from last year with a qb who is 5 ft. 11 inches & the coach of uab is the brother of the coach of texas.i think ou is capable of pitching a shutout & wouldn't surprise me if the ou defense scores a td or 2.
mich.-25...
like ou, mich. is another team that want to erase last year's performance & i read that their camp has been unusally tense & determined to show that last years record was just a fluke..their 5 losses last year was the most since 1984.vandy is replacing their starting qb from last year & i think their defense will be susceptible to big plays from the mich. offense.
i don't have any more time for write-ups but am also playing these...
marshall+22...
u 41(120) memphis/miss.
byu+7
wash. st.+15
here is something that i read in a newsletter..
play on any team facing an opponent in the opening top 5 poll & getting less than 27 points.
"by analyzing the opening ap polls since 2002, it seems that the public has overreacted to the teams at the top of the charts. many fans want to jump on the bandwagon of these potential national champions & this causes a line adjustment"
this system has gone 7-0 ats when the play on team is not in the preseason top 20.
play on...n.illinois,georgia tech,wash. st.,& marshall.
good luck.
I like Nebraska here as well. Tech lost 9 defensive starters and one of their starting CBs converted from RB this spring. Huskers should move the ball at will. I'm thinking 45-10.
Keep up the great work.
Keep up the great work.
AR - agree with you on GT as I believe ND will have two losses by the end of the month when they play Purdue.
