First and Ten

[lostinamerica]

I'll open the 2006 season by quoting my post to open the 2004 and 2005 season; I could embellish or revise it, but I like letting it stand exactly as it was when I whipped it up in 2004, "30 minutes of brainstorming to scratch the surface":

"Every wager is founded on an angle of some sort, maybe a dozen, some better than others . . . Information and a frame of reference for synthesizing that information . . .Situational, fundamental, technical, valuist, contrarian . . . It's good to know and remember what has worked in the past, but it's mindless to be wedded to one or a few approaches or theories . . . You scrutinize. You step back. You dig a little more. You pull the trigger. MONEY MANAGEMENT. You're right, you're wrong, you evaluate and try again . . . The bad beats are maybe 1/3 as annoying as the flat out wrong and I must have been an idiot plays . . . Persevering for value in some long odds, and recognizing value on one side of a tight number. Matchups. Raw numbers. Where does the real motivation lie; Is this a bad spot even if they are headed in the right direction; Exhibitions, openers, playing out the string, championships - you won't find value if you keep your eyes closed . . . A few cappers recognizing what you are seeing so clearly; others not recognizing what seems so obvious you just want to scream before they trip; research that is good enough to convince you to take exactly the opposite side of what you anticipated going in . . . That's 30 minutes of brainstorming to scratch the surface . . . And now an old game starts a new season . . . GOOD LUCK!"

GL

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Don't believe everything you think.

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2005 NCAA Regular Season: 44-40 (-0.33*)
2005-2006 NCAA Bowl Season: 7-8 (-1.20*)

2004 NCAA Regular Season: 55-49 (+3.58*)
2004-2005 NCAA Bowl Season: 5-8 (-4.96*)

2003 NCAA Regular Season: 53-43 (+5.35*)
2003-2004 NCAA Bowl Season: 7-7 (-0.42*)


2005 NFL Regular Season: 40-29 (+7.40*)
2005-2006 NFL Post Season: 6-3 (+3.17*)
2005 NFLX: 0-0 (+0.00)

2004 NFL Regular Season: 46-46 (-0.95*)
2004-2005 NFL Postseason: 7-3 (+5.72*)
2004 NFLX: 1-0 (+1.00*)

2003 NFL Regular Season: 49-51 (-4.94*)
2003-2004 NFL Post Season: 7-4 (+3.09*)
2003 NFLX: 0-0 (+0.00*)

 

[lostinamerica]

I definitely found more stuff for more strong opinions amongst the slate of games and corresponding lines for the opening week of the two prior college seasons than I have mustered so far for this week's openers, so I'm really inclined to start lightly, but it's not easy to do . . .


Northwestern(-4) over Miami-Ohio (1*)
- - The emotional edge would usually lie with a jacked MAC team hosting a Big Ten foe . . . Extremely noteworthy is the emotion that was being invested in this game before the tragedy of June 29; while the emotions and trials of this season may well be destined to take a toll on the Wildcats and their green coaching staff, I can't subscribe to the expectation of that emotion being unpropitious to the sustained energy, focus and execution behind tonight's effort from a veteran and heretofore resilient team. Moreover, this is not The Big House, and the whole aura is fairly conducive to the poise of the visiting quarterback matching or exceeding that of a host signal caller hyped beyond the level of his teammates. And with Coach Walker's presence very much on the sidelines, hopefully there is heart enough, if need be, to clamp down amidst the scares of a backdoor cover and more. Or not.

http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/college/northwestern/cs-060830nu,1,2414726.story?coll=cs-college-headlines


GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Notre Dame(-6') over Georgia Tech (1*)
- - While I've heard Notre Dame hype, I have to say the more sustained message I've caught from the talking heads and similar media types, recently and going on seven months, is the opinion that Notre Dame did nothing on the field last year that was worth getting excited over, and I suspect that's been the message hammered home in South Bend at a ratio of at least 10-1 over any back slapping and poll rankings. Zeroing in on this lid lifter, while I haven't heard any trash talking, there's been a fair amount of woofing coming out of Georgia Tech, while the Irish have been carrying on about as quietly as altar boys. Lastly, Georgia Tech under Chan Gailey and Reggie Ball has been most fearsome when their opponent was arguably doing a little underestimating or overlooking, IMO, and they've been something less fearsome on other occasions . . . I'm just sayin' . . . (FWIW, I believe GT is 0-5 SU and ATS in their last 5 games as a home dog, and 0-7 SU and ATS when giving up more than 21 points) . . . In this game, I think the better team has the lead at the half, I think the better team finishes strong, and I think I know which is the better team.

http://airbornecombatengineer.typepad.com/wreck_ramblin/2006/08/improved_iris_r.html

GL