Week 2 Picks

blgstocks

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Hot off the press....

All plays 1 unit unless otherwise stated

VT/UNC - under 41
VT has one of the top defenses this year, as they always do. Last year they allowed just under 13 PPG!! And are projected by some to lead the nation in PPG again. Off to a nice start allowing zilch against a potent:)mj07: ) Northeastern D.
UNC had a very good D last year as well and return 16 players with starting experience on D. Thier offense is stagnant, as VT offense is ? as well, but definitely will be more run oriented, returning Ore. This all adds up to an easy call on the under.


Texas -2.5
Texas has one of the best defenses in the country, and by one of the best i mean SC,VT,Miami good. I mean they are elite, and return almost everybody from a very good defensive team last year. They also have an offense that put up points and points and points last year. Yes, they lost vince young. But they retain most of the running corp which accounted for most of their offense last year. If there is a team that can go score for score with ohio st, texas is gotta be top 3 canidates that can do it!
OSU offense has got to be #1, but they didn't show me anythign special playing against N ill. 28points in 1 quarter is good, but what did they do the rest of the game as N ill slowly edged back? Oh and that 28 points was off of 1 t/o in the redzone for Nill and a 10 yard pooch out of Nill endzone. If you put me and 10 guys at the 20 to start our drive we will score too.

0691_154347_Iss34_blondesvbrunettes.jpg


Texas/OSU - over 52
CMON i thought this line would be around 59-60. And i was still going to play the over! Read what I said about Texas Off/OSU Off. Now Texas D is top notch, but not OSU. They have avg D from their returning players to what I saw vs N ill. Texas will open OSU front 7 up like a can of sardines. I think both these teams will feel each other out, but by the end of the game the 2 top 5 offenses going full throttle and a ? D on one side of the equation is a recipe for success.

06822_171518_Iss34_blondesvbrunette.jpg


ASU -14 over Nevada.
Will wait for the line to drop or I will buy the hook if it holds true, but if it goes to 15 or more I might just lay the chalk and take them at whatever # seeing at 14.5-16 is pretty much same thing. ASU is a top notch offense with a JuCo infused D that will surprise some people. They looked passed NAU, but will not look past Nevada. Nevada is not that good, and ASU is getting ready for an ass kicking. Sorry dont have more solid #s but I feel pretty good about this play.

Might play the over here as well, but will update later and will let you guys know if i hop on any other trains.

Any comments or thoughts are more than welcome.

Oh and Blond or Brunette. You be the Judge!
 
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blgstocks

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...blonde pic? I'll take the second one from the right. ;)


...brunette pic? I'll take the second one from the left. ;)


...thanks! :SIB



...did you have some "picks" in there? :shrug: ...oh wait...yeah, i'm leaning toward some of those too. LOL :142smilie

Cmon Toaist, i respect your opinion above most, i really would like to hear what you think about the plays.
AND you gotta choose either brunettes or blonds, not pick and choose!
 

taoist

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...okay. I'm more of a brunette man, myself. :SIB



I'll get back to ya on the games.... Still putting in some work.... Generally, I don't like "big" games like tonight or Texas/OSU next week.... Only play them for pizza money and chits and giggles.... That being said, my initial leans on the Texas side and total are in line with yours.... Az St. is also circled. :SIB



edit: LMAO @ my warped mind!!! I also own Va Tech Defense in my college fantasy league if that means anything.... :mj07: :mj07:
 
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blgstocks

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Well since everyones week 2 plays are front and center and mine are bottom of page 2 already I just had to bump. I mean why should i be penalized cause i crunch my numbers early?Srry to be an attention whore, but i gotta get my views up! :mj07:
 

Punter5

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Ohio State showed you nothing special on offense? WOW...your are very blind and in for a rude awakening.
 

blgstocks

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Ohio State showed you nothing special on offense? WOW...your are very blind and in for a rude awakening.

No I am not blind, OSU didn't show me anything Texas didn't show me. And Nill made it easier on OSU than NTexas did on Texas.
This will definitely be a shootout and I would not be surprised if either teams wins. So i do not know what rude awakening im in for:shrug:
 

blgstocks

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Added 1 unit on a 4team teaser

ASU -.5
OSU/Texas Over 36
VT/UNC under 55
Louis/Temple Over 43

This one is in memory of G8torbait! I miss you man:142smilie
 

AR182

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hey stocks.....

i was thinking of playing the under in the vt game, but wasn't im pressed with n.carolina's run defense. i'll look again.

i got asu at 14 & bought .5 point.

good luck.
 

Tavros

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Hey blg-

Couple things...I am Texas alum...going to lay off that game. If for some reason Texas gets pushed to -3.5, that is the trigger for me to take the Horns. Otherwise, no play for me.

I also lean to the UNDER in that game...Texas offesne was smooth as silk last week b/c of the opponent (UNT). Whichever team gets a lead is going to grind things out...I don't see a huge scoring game.

No opinion on the rest of your picks...you have any idea how well you do on teasers overall? Try to stay away from them.
 

blgstocks

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well I just did this one teaser as kinda a joke and t try it out. I heard that they are a bad bet and so i rarely (1st time doing it) bet them

Also, what strategy do you have when making these picks, i know you base purely on line movement but do you just fade the public? Or Pound when Vegas is confident enough to move out from a -3 line?
 

Kramer

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stocks, I've been struggling for two days now. I
just can't make up my mind. Could you do me a
small favor and have the young ladies remove
their tops? That may be the deciding factor!
:142smilie

We are butting heads on the Texas game. I think
Texas won last year because of a seasoned QB
in Young. This year is the flip flop. But it will be
one hell of a battle.

Love your teasor, and yes, gator and fart will be
missed, I was really looking forward to OWNING
THE BOOKS :mj07:
 

Tavros

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Line movement is just one of the many things I look at...I consider myself more of a situational analyst if anything. Don't want to get into details here. I have lots of historical data, lots of complicated Excel spreadsheets, and many statistical breakdowns that all help me make my decisions.

I don't ever look to "just fade the public" or any such thing. Don't pay attention to consensus numbers or the likes. I just watch certain games, certain lines (key #'s) and make my assessment on what my numbers show.

As far as the Texas game goes...my numbers are showing a play on Texas at -3.5 or greater. The chances of that happening are probably 1% barring major news/injury, but if it did, I would be convinced it's worth a play. It would mean a lot to hop -3 and go to -3.5.

From a strictly football standpoint in that game...no one knows how McCoy will react in his 2nd game vs #1 team in the country. I think it helps that he practices against one of the nation's best D's, but there is more to a QB's game than the X's and O's. Very little "value" in my eyes to take a chance on a game like this.
 

blgstocks

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stocks, I've been struggling for two days now. I
just can't make up my mind. Could you do me a
small favor and have the young ladies remove
their tops? That may be the deciding factor!
:142smilie

We are butting heads on the Texas game. I think
Texas won last year because of a seasoned QB
in Young. This year is the flip flop. But it will be
one hell of a battle.

Love your teasor, and yes, gator and fart will be
missed, I was really looking forward to OWNING
THE BOOKS :mj07:

:mj07: Best of luck in the Texas game Kramer, I will be pumped for whichever teams win as I like them both. And I will be having a moment of silence for gator and fart who I am sure will be OWNING THE BOOKS without us Madjackers getting in the way.
 

Kramer

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gator and fart

has a nice ring to it


:142smilie :142smilie :142smilie
 

blgstocks

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I just can't believe the fckin VT/UNC total. Had the under the whole game til the last 6 minutes and then all hell breaks loose with VT interception and running it in, then wide open 50 yard toss, then letting UNC get a 50 yrd toss to score another TD in the last minute to break the over. It is sickening. 21 points in 6 minutes. I am steaming over this one, and pissed at VT defense is good enough to score 21 points on their own but not good enough to stop a last minute hail mary drive that was designed just to fvck the Unders our there! Sorry for the rant but im steaming after about 3 or 4 close losses on my plays this season.
 
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