Week 1

Wise and Wiser

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BALTIMORE +3
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My first dog pick of the week!

1. Tampa is favored by 3 at home, which means the oddsmakers see this game as a tossup. In the NFL, home field advantage is worth 3 points in the line. So, if this game was played on a neutral field it would be a Pick 'Em. The public is leaning towards Tampa Bay (54%). Why not go with the dog in this situation?

2. I think Baltimore will have a more balanced attack with McNair this year, considering he's healthy. Opposing defenses need to respect Baltimore's passing game now, which should open up some running room for Lewis and Anderson. Lewis is hurt right now, so Anderson will get the start, but I think Anderson is better for this team anyway. Also, Mason is reunited with McNair. That combination wreaked havoc on opposing defenses when the two played for the Tits.

3. Simms showed improvement as the season progressed last year, but I'm still not sold, especially against a fierce pass rush. The Buc are still trying to re-tool their offensive line. Last year, Griese was the starting QB, and Gruden had his line setup to protect the righthander's back side. When Simms took over for an injured Griese, Gruden had to switch personnel on the fly to protect a lefty's backside. Tampa improved its offensive line during the off-season, but there is still work to be done. Davin Joseph, a rookie out of Oklahoma, will start at right guard on Sunday. He will see a lot of Ray Lewis! Not good, because Joseph struggled throughout the pre-season against lesser talent.

4. Pressure is on in Balmer! The coaching staff, front office, and players must get it done this season or the franchise will be overhauled. Rumor has it that Billick has a tendency to ride his players too hard. Newsome stuck with Billick this offseason, but there's a real risk of the players tuning him out if the Ravens start slowly again. McNair signed a five year deal, but none of it is guaranteed. You know he wants to make that money, while proving to the organization that it made the right decision in signing him. I think he also wants to make a statement to the Tits this year! Therefore, I think the entire organization is focused on getting off to a positive start, and it begins this Sunday in Tampa Bay.

Baltimore's starting defense: McAlister, Reed, Landry, Rolle, Scott, Lewis, Thomas, Pryce, Gregg, Ngata, Suggs. A lot of talent on this defense, and I think it will end up being one of the best units in the NFL. I see Simms making some mistakes against this aggressive, pass rushing defense on Sunday.
 

Wise and Wiser

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SAN DIEGO -3
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This game is tougher than I expected!

1. Charger starting MLB Foley done for the season after being shot in the chest. What effect will this have on the team, and the defense more specifically? Someone who wasn't expected to start will fill the void.

2. Charger pass defense was horrible last year! They didn't do much to improve the secondary in the off-season. If Oakland is going to win this game, Brooks must exploit Charger secondary. He has the weapons to do it (Moss, Porter).

3. Phillip Rivers is totally unproven! It doesn't make me feel any better that he's making his first start as the team's new franchise QB on the road in a hostile environment. We just don't know what we're going to get from Rivers on Monday night. However, Marty has always been run first, and I totally expect him to give LT2 a ton of touches to ease Rivers' anxiety. Nothing wrong with having the ball in LT's hands the majority of the night!

4. Aaron Brooks is talented, but he's an idiot! I have never seen an NFL quarterback with less football savy. Remember when he threw that pass backwards? He also should be nervous on Monday since he is making his debut in front of Raider Nation.

5. Raider offensive line is a joke. Lamont Jordan is one of the best backs in the NFL, but he only rushed for just over 1,000 yards last season because his line was pathetic. Nothing has really changed there. The five starters on the offensive line are all playing a new position. Saying this line needs time to gel might be the understatement of the year.

6. Raider hired a new offensive coordinator. This guy was managing a restaurant or something like that last year. The players will need some time to adjust to his new system.

7. Raider defense is a joke! Here are the number of years each starting linebacker and DB has played in the NFL: 3, 2, 0, 4, 3, 6, 2. Is there any wonder why this unit committed 101 penalties for 825 yards last season? I know one thing about young defenses, they make lots of mistakes!

8. Charger 9-2-3 ATS in their last 14 vs. AFC West. Charger 13-3-2 ATS in their last 18 road games. Raider 3-15 ATS in their last 18 vs. AFC West. Raider are 8-27-1 ATS in their last 36 vs. AFC.

Bottom line, SD won both games last year (34-10 at home, 27-14 at Oakland), and I don't think Rivers' inexperience will be enough for Oakland to close the gap that much in this particular game. Yes, it might be a close game this time around, but Charger won by 24 and 13 last season. Have the two teams really changed that much? My answer is no! Raider upgraded by getting rid of Collins and signing Brooks, but the rest of the offense is the same, including that dreadful offensive line. Charger regressed by going with Rivers instead of Brees, but the rest of the team is solid, with the exception of their secondary. I might be wrong about this game, I probably am, but my gut tells me to go with the better team until Oakland proves it is worthy of a pick. I hope you agree!
 
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Wise and Wiser

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jasper,

Sorry about that! I didn't mean to include that score in my post. I typed this for a friend of mine earlier this morning. He wanted me to predict a score which would justify the 3 point line, so I came up with 20-17. I do think San Diego will cover the spread. Thanks for pointing that out!
 

jasperjones

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No worries just teasing you... lol

As always I enjoy your write ups...

I like San Diego too this week... with Gates and (a well rested) Tomlinson I find it hard for the Raider defense to hold up.
 

dangerously

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Good call wise.

Ravens are poised to make some noise this season.
The acquisition of McNair makes them a big offensive threat. I believe the mentality of this team will be to go on the attack rather than play close to the vest.

I think they will be an excellant play early on before the linemakers catch up with them.

GL.
 

Wise and Wiser

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KANSAS CITY -2.5
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Okay, this is the hardest game by far! Kinda' like throwing darts. Here are the pros for each side:

Chief
1. At home. The Chief are always a good play at home, especially in home openers (10-2-1 ATS). Thanks Senor!
2. MLB Odell Thurman, Cincy's leading tackler in 2005, won't play due to a suspension. The middle could be open for LJ to roam!
3. The Bengals had 7 players arrested during the off-season. Marvin Lewis said it is not a distraction, but I'm not so sure. Chris Henry might be headed to prison in a couple of weeks!
4. Cincy's run defense was porous last year. Not good when you're going up against LJ and Herm Edwards who loves to run the ball.
5. I know Carson Palmer is playing, but some people are saying he defied major odds by coming back from his knee surgery this soon. I just have a feeling the Bengals are going to call a more conservative game on Sunday. Why put Carson in vulnerable situations this early in the season? The Bengals know their season rides on Carson's arm. If he goes down, they're done! If they do go the conservative route, then they're not playing Bengals' football. Cincy will be getting away from what it does best. Catch 22 situation if you ask me.
6. Cincy will no longer play the underdog role. Teams won't take the Bengals for granted this year. They are going to get every team's best effort. Let's see how they handle this role reversal.
7. Chief travel to Denver next weekend. Very important to win this game at home or they could find themselves in an 0-2 hole to start the season. Bengals have a more winnable game next weekend (vs. Cleveland).

Bengal
1. Cincy is on the road. The Bengals are on a 11-1 ATS road run. Thanks Senor!
2. Kansas City is an aging football team. The Bengals are a young football team. Cincy might have too much quickness for the Chief.
3. Tony Richardson is no longer the fullback in Kansas City. We will see how Johnson does without the best FB in the NFL.
4. Cincy's run defense should be much improved. Safety Williams returns from injury, Cincy signed safety Dexter Jackson, and run stopper extraordinaire Sam Adams is now on the squad.
5. Herm Edwards is now the man in KC. It might take the Chief some time to adjust to his personality. The players loved Vermeil! I worry about Herm always being compared to Dick. How will the players react to Herm on Sunday if things aren't going as planned?
6. Cincy is coming off a 4-0 preseason. Doesn't mean much, but at least the Bengals have their swagger back!

So as you can see, there are many good reasons to take Kansas City and Cincy. But in the end, 77% of the public is backing the Bengals in this matchup! Is this game really that easy? That high percentage tells me it is, but after capping the game myself, I know that is far from the truth. This might be the toughest game on the board this weekend. Therefore, I will go the other way and play it safe. Senor, am I missing anything in my analysis?
 

Killrus

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well

well

Cinci in top 5 rush defense in preseason. Just preseason though :shrug: Was crappy last season. I believe it will be a great game either way. GL!
 

Wise and Wiser

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NEW ORLEANS +3
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Another tough game! Here's what I'm thinking:

*I'll take the Saint skill players on offense over the Brown skill players. I love Frye, but he is a second year QB in the NFL, and this will be his first start as the franchise QB. Brees is already one of the best in my opinion, assuming he's healthy. I like the two-headed monster of Deuce and Bush more than just Droughns. Droughns is a solid punishing runner, but New Orleans can hit you with power and speed. Jurevicius might have the best pair of hands in the league, but he's not a #1 WR. At this point in his career, he is a #2 or #3 guy on most good teams, like he was in Seattle. Joe Horn is a #1 guy on any team. Devery Henderson and Dennis Northcutt are irrelevant.

*The Brown run defense last year was atrocious! Only two teams allowed more than the 137.6 yards per game it gave up on the ground. Cleveland thinks it improved this area by signing McGinest and Ted Washington, but I gotta' see it to believe it. It will take time for Cleveland's defense to gel. Deuce and Bush could have a field day on Sunday if this run defense hasn't improved significantly.

*I know Aint can win a road opener, because I saw them go into Carolina last season and upset the Panther under the most adverse conditions one can imagine. You can't compare one game to another, but at least I know New Orleans is capable of getting it done.

*This is another game that the oddsmakers see as a tossup. Cleveland is laying the standard 3 points because it is at home. Why not take the dog in a game where anything can happen?
 

TheCubeBeatMe

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Wise -- Good Luck in all your plays this year.

I'm a Ravens fan and follow the team pretty closely. While McNair is going to be a boost to the offense, their problems on offense run much deeper than QB. Since coming to Baltimore in 1999, I think Billick has only had the offense in the top half of the league once. His offensive scheme from Minnesota doesn't work without Randy Moss, Chris Carter, a great offensive line, etc. The offensive line in B-More is suspect at best and I would expect McNair to take a beating against the Tampa Defense. That said, I don't think Tampa's going to be able to do too much against the Baltimore defense either. Baltimore hasn't won a road game in two years, but the line seems to want TB money. Again, good luck. I'll be watching this one. Point here is just not to put too much stock in a Ravens "improved offense" until one materializes on the field.
 

Wise and Wiser

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Good point! Don't get me wrong, I'm not expecting Baltimore to have a high-powered offense this year, but at least the threat of a passing game now exists with McNair. McNair's better days are behind him now, but when healthy, he is still good enough to pick apart opposing defenses. He is a winner! Also, like I said before, I think Mason will really benefit from having his boy around again. Mason led the league in receptions when he played with Air in Tennessee. The defense should be better this year. Hell, getting Ed Reed back makes the defense better instantly. A better defense should give the offense better field position, and thus easier opportunities to punch it in. Good luck to you this season!
 

1sob

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In a ditch !!!!!
like your sd pick as oak sucks agains. toss up w/cinci and the chiefs, im taking the over in theat game two offensive teams w/no d wut so ever. no opion on the saints . good luck this upcoming season W&W
 

amich1

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wise,
the saints win on the rd. in week 1 last yr. had more to do w/ the emotion of the situatiion than anything else (ie we're playing for the people that lost everything). Mark my words, the saints will have the worst defense in the NFL this yr by a long shot. There are better linebackers playing high school football in New Orleans right now :scared
 

Wise and Wiser

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The worst defense in the NFL? I don't know about that, but it is definitely their weakness. Cleveland's defense isn't much better. McGinest will help the left side, but the right side still stinks. Like I said, I think Nawlins has a better chance of being productive on offense this weekend. I will take Brees, Deuce, Bush and Horn over Frye, Droughns and JJ any day. Best of luck!
 

GoodGuesser

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You keep over looking 2 highly skilled Browns in K.Winslow and B.Edwards. Cleveland should win by 7.
 

Wise and Wiser

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Uh, last time I checked, Winslow was a highly skilled player in college, and Edwards was still recovering from knee surgery. So, I don't think I'm overlooking the Browns' skill players at all. Best of luck if you decide to bet on Cleveland!
 

Wise and Wiser

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DETROIT +6
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82% backing Seattle and the line has moved from 3.5 to 6.5 in some places. Also, the loser of the previous Super Bowl (Seattle) is 0-7 SU and 1-5-1 ATS in its first game the following season. This might be my favorite week 1 play, but I'm going to bet the same amount.
 

Lilbillshoops

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Wise, I respect you greatly as a very good capper. Just wondering how you did last year in the NFL and NCAA football. I rode you in the NCAA BBALL tourn... You were great. Thanks again and good luck this year!!
 
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