mac saturday: week two ......

[gman2]

toledo (-10.5) over western michigan

dont like to make a habit of conference road chalk, but its justified here. wmu will be without starting qb ryan cubit after a pretty gruesome laceration of his throwing hand against indy last week. he'll probably be out 1-2 weeks. the injury wouldnt be so bad if tim hiller (mac freshman of the year in '05) were available but he's still recovering from a knee injury suffered in the season finale against northern illinois last year. peregrin (juco transfer) will start for wmu here. on the toledo side, despite losing in triple OT to iowa state, cochran looked incredibly comfortable at qb in his first start and theres good reason to believe he will be among the very best in the mac this year. this has also been a series dominated by UT in recent years. even good wmu teams have struggled against toledo, no matter where the game has been played. deck is stacked against the broncos in this one and another toledo rout could be on the horizon saturday night. too many offensive weapons for toledo. too many question marks and new faces for wmu.

 

[Sun Tzu]

think there are some historical stats showing teams coming off of OT games. in particular multi-OT, fare quite poor;y the next week.

 

[bases]

gman

gman

what do you think about the total of 52....was thinking over due to these schools put points up against each othrer,,but now culbit out,,not sure
input appreciated

 

[gman2]

i remember you mentioning that last year or the year before in some of our discussions. one thing i do think that works in toledo's favor here is the extra 2 days to put that game behind them (having played on thursday and not saturday). if they were playing on a short/normal week, id be a bit more concerned. also like that toledo is one of the 'class' programs in the mac (whereas a lesser time might have a hangover effect). point duly noted though.

 

[gman2]

bases:

gotta think the playbook is going to be really simplified for peregrin. and for that reason, the game might be a bit more of a grinder. history definitely favors the over though because plenty of toledo teams have dropped some big numbers on wmu with the broncos doing their part by scoring a few times as well. gotta pass the total just because of the way cubit's injury changes things, but total does seem pretty low for these two.

 

[gman2]

going to also give purdue/miami a small shot over the total. boilers should be able to score at will on miami's defense. after going over the miami/nwestern game, comfortable enough to say that the redhawks offensive ineptitude was an aberration. doesnt look like murphy is going to play for the redhawks though so that is a small concern. but if purdue can get this game into DD early, miami will be forced to put the ball in the air anyway. boilers have been a good over play in non-conf gms early in the season the last few yrs as well.

purdue over 52.5

 

[Jayhawk_Thor]

Great writeups as always.

GL man.

 

[TJBELL]

Good Luck this Season Bro! :thumb:

 

[gman2]

akron (+5.5) for the 1h
akron (+8.5) for the game

zips looked good at times against penn state and then awful at other times within the same game. if akron can stop the ncst run, then they should be there in the 4th quarter. wolfpack normally plays it so close to the vest that they always give a dog a shot to hang around.

thats prob it for the mac. line move says bowling green but head (perhaps inexplicably) says buffalo. falcons are going to score points but its not going to be the same high powered offense from the last few years. they want to run, run, run, even from the quarterback spot.

 

[Pink Panties]

you missed one...

you missed one...

IU by 15

 

[gman2]

IU by 15

certainly wouldnt be a huge surprise. but im not sure i could trust indy as a road chalk, even if its a step down in class. ive got great respect for lynch as a quarterback. he does more with less than prob any quarterback in the mac. cards are a great fade away from home but they normally dont lay down in muncie (ask toledo). that said, i do think indy wins by a TD but cant put my money on them.

 

[gman2]

akron 2nd half over 20.5 (+101)

expecting ncstate to open it up a little bit and get some pts on the board. akron looks very good but cant see the zips shutting down an upper-tier acc team for 4 quarters. zips have to think they can win it, but cant expect 7 to be good enough. think 24-28 pts are on the board in the 2h

 

[socrstud]

Love the akron pick GMAN

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

akron (+5.5) for the 1h
akron (+8.5) for the game

zips looked good at times against penn state and then awful at other times within the same game. if akron can stop the ncst run, then they should be there in the 4th quarter. wolfpack normally plays it so close to the vest that they always give a dog a shot to hang around.

thats prob it for the mac. line move says bowling green but head (perhaps inexplicably) says buffalo. falcons are going to score points but its not going to be the same high powered offense from the last few years. they want to run, run, run, even from the quarterback spot.

wow, great call!!!

 

[thisisbad]

Excellent call with akron, had that game nailed

Is there a good place to keep up witht he bowling green game? Seems like scoreboards have frozen at 7-0

 

[thisisbad]

ok, i see that its delayed

good lulck on the rest of the day!

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Very nice analysis gman. You nailed that one!

 

[gman2]

ok, i see that its delayed

good lulck on the rest of the day!

bg is an hour or so southeast of ann arbor so wouldnt be surprised if the same front that delayed cmich/mich is keeping bg/buff off the field. purely speculating though as ive got my eyes on kent/army and northern/ohio right now

 

[gman2]

for a 2h play, playing this one for a good chunk.

buffalo/bg under

neither team is putting the ball in the air. both just pounding it on the ground. buffalo has 17 points but barely 100 yards of offense. bulls have scored both touchdowns on special teams (blocked punt for a TD, kickoff return for a TD). buffalo with a lead should be very conservative in trying to pull the big upset on the road. times have changed at bg with the passing game almost non-existent. turner has only attempted 7 passes in the 1h. jacobs would have attempted 17 or 20 by now.

 

[gman2]

hate to get carried away with just 30:00 of football but this 2h total came out even higher than expected. would have hit the under hard at anything better than 21. at 24, thats an obligatory play. seeing 14 or 17 tops.