Michigan/ND Trends and Angles

[CWood97]

Lots of conflicting angles for this matchup. Interesting info nonetheless.

- ND is 4-3 SU and 6-1 ATS L7 meetings (since '97)

- This is a dog dominated series with the dog going 18-3-1 against the number since '78. Michigan is 2-3-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in the dog role since '80. Only one of those matchups was at Michigan Stadium (SU win)

-Michigan is 0-6 SU and ATS in road openers L6 years

-Michigan went 2-0 SU and ATS as a road dog in 2005, breaking Iowa's win streak in Iowa City and beating previously undefeated MSU as a 4' point dog. UM is 4-0 ATS L4 as an away dog.

-ND is 7-2 ATS L9 in September

-Over is 3-0 L3 in South Bend

 

[HoopsGuru]

3 things concern me with this game.

1. ND's kicker is very erratic and i don't think he's going to consistently make kicks over 35 yards this year. most likely a close game, fg's might be huge.

2. The team that is under the radar more usually does well in this series so that bodes well for michigan.

3. ND might come out a little flat even though its a huge game vs Michigan. They completely dominated PSU and might be a little overconfident.

I'm hoping ND can find a way to get carlson & mcknight plenty of touches this game. I haven't seen too much of michigan this year so i can't comment on their run d. i was impressed that quinn threw a lot of passes to carlson & walker last week. I'm still debating this game this week but i'm thinking it'll end up somewhere around 24-20 ND. what do you guys think? I'm a huge nd fan but i look for reasons to go for and against nd any chance i get. i would either take mich + 7 or lay off this game as of right now.

 

[CWood97]

Kicker seems to be a legit concern for ND. UM has had problems in kickoff coverage and punt return blocking so far. Both of these areas could be trouble for UM.

Michigan's run D should be solid. I would venture to say you have 6-8 players in Michigan's front 7 rotation that will eventually play in the NFL and Branch/Woodley are sure fire 1st round picks. Ron English's new scheme is more gap based and far more aggressive than previous DC Jim Herrmann's. The players seem to love it and the results have been good thus far against marginal opponents. That said, the UM D has not performed up to its talent level in recent years, and this is the first true test of the new coordinator, so its a tough call. My best guess is that if ND runs the ball with any success at all, it will be late in the game with delays/draws set up by the passing game. Keep in mind ND had just 110 yds rushing vs Penn State and 42 of those yds came on a fake punt.

I am leaning pretty hard towards taking the points since I think this game will be decided late in the 4th quarter.

 

[wcb4]

i would say that the rushing dog principal applies to michigan here, whether the numbers back it or not. after watching notre dame the first couple of weeks, i have a very hard time believing that michigan will not be able to move the chains consistently on the ground. i agree that this should be a game decided in the 4th, and i think the big blue will have a shot to win it outright.

 

[CWood97]

Michigan is averaging 250+ a game on the ground in their new Broncos-like zone blocking scheme, so I agree with the rushing dog angle.

However, If ND does stuff the run it could be trouble for UM since the passing game has looked out of sorts the last two weeks.

 

[Irish]

CWood
I hate to do it but I am leaning hard on the Irish, even though I have been killed in this series. Still I am not really impressed with Mich last games in the big house even though I know the Mich team that plays on every other Sat is different when ND or OSU are on the field.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Destructor D]

I can see Notre Dame crushing Michigan by 2-3 TD's. It will be a great game. Awesome week of college football ahead.

 

[joefrog91]

My initial lean was for ND, but I lost money on this game last year. So, I'm fading myself and going with Michigan.

 

[LonghornMM]

IMO the difference in not only the game, but the cover is a HUGE coaching advantage.

Weiss > Carr

Notre Dame minus the points or nothing for me.

 

[CWood97]

Still I am not really impressed with Mich last games in the big house even though I know the Mich team that plays on every other Sat is different when ND or OSU are on the field.

I tend to agree with you here. Unfortunately, in recent years, "different" hasn't been so great!

 

[pirate fan]

Cwood, you do such a good job with the Big 10 I am relly at a loss myself on this one. I will probably pass and just enjoy the game, if ND wins at least.:142smilie I'll be tailing your other picks though. GL