NFL YTD 1-1 -$100
Hey guys - I just wanted to share my take on how to approach this Week 2 in the NFL. Now I am not much of a "trend" bettor - it looks good on paper that this team won 9 of it's last 10 against the spread in the division - blah blah blah - since so much changes from year to year. Not only do things change from year to year, but things change so much from week to week. The one approach that has worked well for me over the last six years is to observe closely what has happened the prior week - and what most people have formed opinions on - and then go opposite of that opinion. This is how you find the point spread value on a weekly basis.
Now I'll admit last year was one of those years that "went mostly to form" - i believe 57% favorites covered the whole year, the highest in the last 20 years...I really think that we will see things come back in line and favor the dogs once again, as most years a higher percentage of dogs vs. faves cover.
Somebody posted last year the percentage from year to year over the last 20 years, I think it was 16 out of the last 20 years had more dogs covering if you picked them all blindly. That says alot right there and a simple conclusion is you gain value taking the dogs because the spread has alot of public perception built into it and is reflected week to week. Usually lines on the favorites are slightly inflated due to the fact that the public tends to go after the favorites...I mean after all it's easy to take a team like Indy - favored by "only 13" versus the worst team in the leauge...Vegas is giving us a gift here right? Well, majority of the time in the long run the answer is no. I don't see anybody winning laying these big numbers week after week after week, year after year after year.
The one rule I live by when betting sports - especially the NFL is to EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED. Do me a favor - every week look at the schedule of 16 games. Write down exactly what you think will happen. By that I mean write down how you expect the game to go - don't have to predict the exact score - but should be able to determine who should come out on top and if they should be able to cover the number or not. Then compare this analysis to the current betting line at the time you make your prediction.
Now alot of people spend countless hours "handicapping" - crunching numbers, looking for really nice "paper trends", talking to their friends asking "who do you like this week?", they make their plays - often way too many plays (I try to minimize my NFL plays now to about 2 or 3 per week) - and at the end of the week most probably are scratching their heads wondering why they are losing. Now after the games are played for the week - revisit your list of "what you think should happen". Now be objective and grade yourself - how accurate were you? In those 16 games, how many were you way off on? I can almost guarantee that every week you will revisit your list of what you think will happen and it will be completely flipped and turned upside down. EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED TO HAPPEN EVERY WEEK IN THE NFL. If you expect the unexpected, you will be a longrun winner. It is that simple.
I want to recap the entire Week 1 and some notes I jotted down as I did my weekly "what should happen in Week 1 (i'll just show you the main conclusion of what I felt would happen) I will also comment on what actually happened in the game after I saw the result - my comments are prefixed by ***:
Miami at Pitt -4.5 (went to -1.5 after Ben surgery) - Pitt strong home team should beat Culpepper (who has a history of struggling on the road) - Pitt should be able to run on an average Miami D, Miami will have a hard time running on Pitt, in the end Pitt by 7
***Pitt looked strong even w/o Ben surgery - public backed Miami after the Ben and they were wrong - they expected Pitt to be bad w/ Batch - they looked great - went opposite most thought
Denver -4 at St. Louis - Denver should be able to handle St. Louis as they have a great defense and should be able to move the ball on St. Louis, St. Louis may struggle to score vs. the Denver D
***St. Louis won outright - totally went opposite how I thought it should go
Jets at Titans -3 - Jets look to be in for a long year, as do the Titans, but at home Titans should be able to outscore the Jets
***Jets win outright - totally unexpected
Buffalo at NE -8 - general consensus is NE should not only win but by double digits as they outclass Buffalo in all facets of the game
***NE struggles, is down by 10 alot of the game, miraculously get a saftey to win by just 2...went opposite way i thought it should go
Balt at TB -3 - should be a very close battle - I see this one coming down to a FG and most likely this line is right on
***Balt shuts out TB by 27 at TB? Are you kidding me? Totally unexpected
Cincy at KC -3 - Chiefs very strong home team should have a nice day running the ball, Cincy should move the ball on KC - Palmer still coming back from injury - should be decided within a TD..
**Cincy wins by 13, Green out on vicious hit, still didn't go exactly as expected
Seattle -6 at Detroit - Lions are flat out brutal - this one shouldn't be close - Seattle should win by double digits as they outclass them on both sides of the football
***game is grind - 9 to 6?? Seattle lucky to escape w/ a win...they barely scored as much as they were favored by! Totally unexpected.
(ok - i'll shorten up my week 1 analysis for remaining games - you should be getting the picture by now)
Atl at Carolina - Carolina should get the win
***Atl wins by 14! Totally unexpected!
Eagles -6 at Houston - Houston is brutal, Eagles should win by a TD or more
***An easy one and went as expected
Saints at Browns -3 - give the nod to Cleveland at home
***Saints win outright!
Dallas -2.5 at Jax - note here line came out at Jax -3 and swung to Dallas -2.5 - a 5.5 point swing w/o a major injury - wow everyone expects Boys to win here i guess - should be a close game - I thought line was about right w/ Jax -3...
***Jax wins by 7 - boy was public wrong here!
Bears -3.5 at GB - Bears should get the road win - I don't see GB scoring more than 7 - I see about a 10 point Bears win - a 17-7 type of game...
***Bears shut out Pack at home - wow - not shocking to see them win - but a 26-0 shutout?
SF at Arizona -9.5 - Arizona should be able to score at will on SF
***SF hangs in the whole game and loses by just 7
Indy -3 at NY Giants - this line is about right - slight edge to high powered offense of Indy, but they can struggle away from home - comes down to a FG
***Indy wins by 5 - went pretty close to form
Vikings at Wash -4 - Wash should win a close one at home - superior defense, more talent on offense...
***Vikings win outright
SD -3 at Oakland - Art Shell + Aaron Brooks = a bettor's dream to go against - Oakland is going to make bad decisions, committ dumb penalties - SD will be ok w/ Rivers & lean on LT - SD should win by 10 or so
***SD shutout Oakland in a rout - not expected to win that huge, but nonetheless went to form as most saw it
OK - so I hope you see what I mean. Look at how week 1 "should" have gone. And then look at how it "actually" went. Notice something here? Notice how most times it was correct to expect the unexpected?
So how do you apply this to Week 2 and beyond. Well Week 2 I see some HUGE overreactions in the lines. Look at this statement:
8 of the 16 games in Week 2 have one team favored by 7 or MORE!
That is insane! People have formed some major opinions after only one week of play! Now how do you think people will be betting this week? Will they be betting on what "should" happen - or will they be betting on what "actually" will happen? My money says most will be laying some major points this weekend, believing the team they are backing is way better than they are. The one way you "expect the unexpected" is to back mostly underdogs.
Let's look at the sample of games where the spread is 7 or more for one team:
Oakland at Baltimore -12
Houston at Indy -13.5
Cleveland at Cincy -10.5
Buffalo at Miami -7
Detroit at Chicago -9
Arizona at Seattle -7
Tenn at San Diego -12
KC at Denver -11
I am telling you these 8 games as a whole will be closer than people want to believe! One more amazing thing 6 OUT OF THESE 8 games are against DIVISION opponents! Now I know I saw every game as most of you did - I have watched every single game over at least once on the NFL Sunday Ticket Short Cuts (amazing way to catch a whole game over in 30 minutes and see EVERY PLAY - i love this feature of the NFL TICKET!). Sure it's easy to see some teams looked totally overmatched. However, if you let this influence the plays you make this week, you will pay for it in the end.
And look at the huge moneylines - i mean lowest is +260 on Buffalo - now honestly don't you think if they played Miami three times they would have a chance at winning one of those? I believe they would have a shot...now look at Houston they are arounda +1000 moneyline - i mean wouldn't they give the Colts a good run for a win 1 out of 10 games? I think they would. Several of these teams are around +500 moneylines. Now I'm not endorsing playing every moneyline, but i will endorse playing all 8 of those dogs. Again, I like to only make a few plays a week, but I know some of you want to make tons of plays. If you are going to do this, at least play some spreads where you are getting some value, because perception from last week is built in, and back some dogs that you would never expect to have a chance.
Now I agree Oakland looks brutal - but come on Baltimore favored by 12? They sure looked good last week, but don't you think after Oakland was embarrassed so much they'd make some type of adjustment? Maybe run it more, maybe play better D - I mean Balt offense is improved, but they aren't the Colts or anything. Make your adjustments week to week. Now I backed SD in Week 1 because I loved the matchup. However, I won't let what I saw last week - Balt looking like the Colts on offense, Oakland looking like the worst offense in the league, affect my thinking and all of a sudden lay -12 points. Think about this - Baltimore could be up by 18 points late in the 4th quarter - now don't you think that 18 is a big lead in the NFL for a team that still needs to improve they can score week after week? And don't you think eventually Oakland will put some scoring drives together? Anyways Oakland can be down 18 in scrub time at the end, find a way to get 7, lose by 11...and those laying the -12 will have lost. History shows taking double digits is a long run winning formula in the NFL.
Remember - no team is as good as they look in any week, and no team is as bad as they look in any week!
OK - i hope some of you found this writeup helpful. I see some already touting the huge favorites. Remember - it's easy to look at these games and think "wow this should be a mismatch and this team should win big" - then you need to get back to reality - and realize that most of the time in the long run things don't go that smoothly and laying big numbers is a formula to lose. I mean when you lay 9 points like i said before that team might be up by 15 late - who cares if they give up a score and win by only 8? I mean that team cares about a W and a W only...and remember these underdgogs CARE ABOUT TRYING TO GET A WIN..
You win w/ an underdgo 2 ways - they cover, or win outright...you win w/ a favorite only 1 way - they win AND cover a predefined number - and remember most of the time this predefined number is inflated only because it has to be as a result of public perception of what happened the previous week. So keep this in mind when looking at "useless trends" like this team is 8-2 over last 15 years - etc.
I believe strongly in using this approach to handicapping the NFL - over the last 6 years I have not had a losing season betting sports...I don't consider myself to be the best handicapper out there or anything, just that I have found that keeping things simple is the way to go...the "simple" way to handicap the NFL is to play against the favorites that seem to be inflated due to how they did the previous week/weeks...once again in Week 3 we will see adjustments made after we see what happens this week...it's a never ending cycle...you won't win every play doing this, but you should make a decent profit in the long haul and i don't know about you but i bet NFL first to make money, second because i enjoy it...
I encourage you all to post strategies that have worked for you in the past...I know I have shared my philosophy for betting the NFL with many friends and they have adopted this stragegy with alot of success...again it's ultimately up to you how many plays you make and determine what plays you do make...personally I used to bet alot more games than I do now - I find that I can narrow down to a good 2 or 3 plays a week, instead of playing 7 or 8 plays...however there are certain weeks where I see overreactions - and this Week 2 will be one of them where I will be making more than the 2 or 3 standard plays...I have not decided yet, as the lines are still rising on alot of favorites...I do know I probably will end up playing around 6 dogs this week. The goal of course is to go around 4W-2L if I do play 6 dogs, obviously i'd love to go 6-0 - but I always shoot for that 55-60% range...
Have a good rest of the week - I'll post my plays before the start of games Sunday after I decide which inflated lines I will be playing...good luck and don't lay too many points this weekend or any weekend! There is a time and place to lay a number, but it should be the exception, not the norm! Good luck w/ all your plays this weekend!
--SAVE IT
Hey guys - I just wanted to share my take on how to approach this Week 2 in the NFL. Now I am not much of a "trend" bettor - it looks good on paper that this team won 9 of it's last 10 against the spread in the division - blah blah blah - since so much changes from year to year. Not only do things change from year to year, but things change so much from week to week. The one approach that has worked well for me over the last six years is to observe closely what has happened the prior week - and what most people have formed opinions on - and then go opposite of that opinion. This is how you find the point spread value on a weekly basis.
Now I'll admit last year was one of those years that "went mostly to form" - i believe 57% favorites covered the whole year, the highest in the last 20 years...I really think that we will see things come back in line and favor the dogs once again, as most years a higher percentage of dogs vs. faves cover.
Somebody posted last year the percentage from year to year over the last 20 years, I think it was 16 out of the last 20 years had more dogs covering if you picked them all blindly. That says alot right there and a simple conclusion is you gain value taking the dogs because the spread has alot of public perception built into it and is reflected week to week. Usually lines on the favorites are slightly inflated due to the fact that the public tends to go after the favorites...I mean after all it's easy to take a team like Indy - favored by "only 13" versus the worst team in the leauge...Vegas is giving us a gift here right? Well, majority of the time in the long run the answer is no. I don't see anybody winning laying these big numbers week after week after week, year after year after year.
The one rule I live by when betting sports - especially the NFL is to EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED. Do me a favor - every week look at the schedule of 16 games. Write down exactly what you think will happen. By that I mean write down how you expect the game to go - don't have to predict the exact score - but should be able to determine who should come out on top and if they should be able to cover the number or not. Then compare this analysis to the current betting line at the time you make your prediction.
Now alot of people spend countless hours "handicapping" - crunching numbers, looking for really nice "paper trends", talking to their friends asking "who do you like this week?", they make their plays - often way too many plays (I try to minimize my NFL plays now to about 2 or 3 per week) - and at the end of the week most probably are scratching their heads wondering why they are losing. Now after the games are played for the week - revisit your list of "what you think should happen". Now be objective and grade yourself - how accurate were you? In those 16 games, how many were you way off on? I can almost guarantee that every week you will revisit your list of what you think will happen and it will be completely flipped and turned upside down. EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED TO HAPPEN EVERY WEEK IN THE NFL. If you expect the unexpected, you will be a longrun winner. It is that simple.
I want to recap the entire Week 1 and some notes I jotted down as I did my weekly "what should happen in Week 1 (i'll just show you the main conclusion of what I felt would happen) I will also comment on what actually happened in the game after I saw the result - my comments are prefixed by ***:
Miami at Pitt -4.5 (went to -1.5 after Ben surgery) - Pitt strong home team should beat Culpepper (who has a history of struggling on the road) - Pitt should be able to run on an average Miami D, Miami will have a hard time running on Pitt, in the end Pitt by 7
***Pitt looked strong even w/o Ben surgery - public backed Miami after the Ben and they were wrong - they expected Pitt to be bad w/ Batch - they looked great - went opposite most thought
Denver -4 at St. Louis - Denver should be able to handle St. Louis as they have a great defense and should be able to move the ball on St. Louis, St. Louis may struggle to score vs. the Denver D
***St. Louis won outright - totally went opposite how I thought it should go
Jets at Titans -3 - Jets look to be in for a long year, as do the Titans, but at home Titans should be able to outscore the Jets
***Jets win outright - totally unexpected
Buffalo at NE -8 - general consensus is NE should not only win but by double digits as they outclass Buffalo in all facets of the game
***NE struggles, is down by 10 alot of the game, miraculously get a saftey to win by just 2...went opposite way i thought it should go
Balt at TB -3 - should be a very close battle - I see this one coming down to a FG and most likely this line is right on
***Balt shuts out TB by 27 at TB? Are you kidding me? Totally unexpected
Cincy at KC -3 - Chiefs very strong home team should have a nice day running the ball, Cincy should move the ball on KC - Palmer still coming back from injury - should be decided within a TD..
**Cincy wins by 13, Green out on vicious hit, still didn't go exactly as expected
Seattle -6 at Detroit - Lions are flat out brutal - this one shouldn't be close - Seattle should win by double digits as they outclass them on both sides of the football
***game is grind - 9 to 6?? Seattle lucky to escape w/ a win...they barely scored as much as they were favored by! Totally unexpected.
(ok - i'll shorten up my week 1 analysis for remaining games - you should be getting the picture by now)
Atl at Carolina - Carolina should get the win
***Atl wins by 14! Totally unexpected!
Eagles -6 at Houston - Houston is brutal, Eagles should win by a TD or more
***An easy one and went as expected
Saints at Browns -3 - give the nod to Cleveland at home
***Saints win outright!
Dallas -2.5 at Jax - note here line came out at Jax -3 and swung to Dallas -2.5 - a 5.5 point swing w/o a major injury - wow everyone expects Boys to win here i guess - should be a close game - I thought line was about right w/ Jax -3...
***Jax wins by 7 - boy was public wrong here!
Bears -3.5 at GB - Bears should get the road win - I don't see GB scoring more than 7 - I see about a 10 point Bears win - a 17-7 type of game...
***Bears shut out Pack at home - wow - not shocking to see them win - but a 26-0 shutout?
SF at Arizona -9.5 - Arizona should be able to score at will on SF
***SF hangs in the whole game and loses by just 7
Indy -3 at NY Giants - this line is about right - slight edge to high powered offense of Indy, but they can struggle away from home - comes down to a FG
***Indy wins by 5 - went pretty close to form
Vikings at Wash -4 - Wash should win a close one at home - superior defense, more talent on offense...
***Vikings win outright
SD -3 at Oakland - Art Shell + Aaron Brooks = a bettor's dream to go against - Oakland is going to make bad decisions, committ dumb penalties - SD will be ok w/ Rivers & lean on LT - SD should win by 10 or so
***SD shutout Oakland in a rout - not expected to win that huge, but nonetheless went to form as most saw it
OK - so I hope you see what I mean. Look at how week 1 "should" have gone. And then look at how it "actually" went. Notice something here? Notice how most times it was correct to expect the unexpected?
So how do you apply this to Week 2 and beyond. Well Week 2 I see some HUGE overreactions in the lines. Look at this statement:
8 of the 16 games in Week 2 have one team favored by 7 or MORE!
That is insane! People have formed some major opinions after only one week of play! Now how do you think people will be betting this week? Will they be betting on what "should" happen - or will they be betting on what "actually" will happen? My money says most will be laying some major points this weekend, believing the team they are backing is way better than they are. The one way you "expect the unexpected" is to back mostly underdogs.
Let's look at the sample of games where the spread is 7 or more for one team:
Oakland at Baltimore -12
Houston at Indy -13.5
Cleveland at Cincy -10.5
Buffalo at Miami -7
Detroit at Chicago -9
Arizona at Seattle -7
Tenn at San Diego -12
KC at Denver -11
I am telling you these 8 games as a whole will be closer than people want to believe! One more amazing thing 6 OUT OF THESE 8 games are against DIVISION opponents! Now I know I saw every game as most of you did - I have watched every single game over at least once on the NFL Sunday Ticket Short Cuts (amazing way to catch a whole game over in 30 minutes and see EVERY PLAY - i love this feature of the NFL TICKET!). Sure it's easy to see some teams looked totally overmatched. However, if you let this influence the plays you make this week, you will pay for it in the end.
And look at the huge moneylines - i mean lowest is +260 on Buffalo - now honestly don't you think if they played Miami three times they would have a chance at winning one of those? I believe they would have a shot...now look at Houston they are arounda +1000 moneyline - i mean wouldn't they give the Colts a good run for a win 1 out of 10 games? I think they would. Several of these teams are around +500 moneylines. Now I'm not endorsing playing every moneyline, but i will endorse playing all 8 of those dogs. Again, I like to only make a few plays a week, but I know some of you want to make tons of plays. If you are going to do this, at least play some spreads where you are getting some value, because perception from last week is built in, and back some dogs that you would never expect to have a chance.
Now I agree Oakland looks brutal - but come on Baltimore favored by 12? They sure looked good last week, but don't you think after Oakland was embarrassed so much they'd make some type of adjustment? Maybe run it more, maybe play better D - I mean Balt offense is improved, but they aren't the Colts or anything. Make your adjustments week to week. Now I backed SD in Week 1 because I loved the matchup. However, I won't let what I saw last week - Balt looking like the Colts on offense, Oakland looking like the worst offense in the league, affect my thinking and all of a sudden lay -12 points. Think about this - Baltimore could be up by 18 points late in the 4th quarter - now don't you think that 18 is a big lead in the NFL for a team that still needs to improve they can score week after week? And don't you think eventually Oakland will put some scoring drives together? Anyways Oakland can be down 18 in scrub time at the end, find a way to get 7, lose by 11...and those laying the -12 will have lost. History shows taking double digits is a long run winning formula in the NFL.
Remember - no team is as good as they look in any week, and no team is as bad as they look in any week!
OK - i hope some of you found this writeup helpful. I see some already touting the huge favorites. Remember - it's easy to look at these games and think "wow this should be a mismatch and this team should win big" - then you need to get back to reality - and realize that most of the time in the long run things don't go that smoothly and laying big numbers is a formula to lose. I mean when you lay 9 points like i said before that team might be up by 15 late - who cares if they give up a score and win by only 8? I mean that team cares about a W and a W only...and remember these underdgogs CARE ABOUT TRYING TO GET A WIN..
You win w/ an underdgo 2 ways - they cover, or win outright...you win w/ a favorite only 1 way - they win AND cover a predefined number - and remember most of the time this predefined number is inflated only because it has to be as a result of public perception of what happened the previous week. So keep this in mind when looking at "useless trends" like this team is 8-2 over last 15 years - etc.
I believe strongly in using this approach to handicapping the NFL - over the last 6 years I have not had a losing season betting sports...I don't consider myself to be the best handicapper out there or anything, just that I have found that keeping things simple is the way to go...the "simple" way to handicap the NFL is to play against the favorites that seem to be inflated due to how they did the previous week/weeks...once again in Week 3 we will see adjustments made after we see what happens this week...it's a never ending cycle...you won't win every play doing this, but you should make a decent profit in the long haul and i don't know about you but i bet NFL first to make money, second because i enjoy it...
I encourage you all to post strategies that have worked for you in the past...I know I have shared my philosophy for betting the NFL with many friends and they have adopted this stragegy with alot of success...again it's ultimately up to you how many plays you make and determine what plays you do make...personally I used to bet alot more games than I do now - I find that I can narrow down to a good 2 or 3 plays a week, instead of playing 7 or 8 plays...however there are certain weeks where I see overreactions - and this Week 2 will be one of them where I will be making more than the 2 or 3 standard plays...I have not decided yet, as the lines are still rising on alot of favorites...I do know I probably will end up playing around 6 dogs this week. The goal of course is to go around 4W-2L if I do play 6 dogs, obviously i'd love to go 6-0 - but I always shoot for that 55-60% range...
Have a good rest of the week - I'll post my plays before the start of games Sunday after I decide which inflated lines I will be playing...good luck and don't lay too many points this weekend or any weekend! There is a time and place to lay a number, but it should be the exception, not the norm! Good luck w/ all your plays this weekend!
--SAVE IT
