Friday Night

[Toledo Prophet]

So, making my first pick on the message board......and i want to impress people so much with my cogent insight and analysis......so what do i do? I go with a blantantly Homer of a pick!!

Toledo -4

Of course, i want my home town team to impress on National TV, and get their first win after an 0-2 start, but there are reasons i like the Rockets even if i lived in Pascagulua, rather than a mile away from the Glass Bowl....so here goes.

Amstutz has never lost three games in a row in his tenure at Toledo. And, the Rockets are 34-2 straight up at home, 23-8 ATS in those games. Toledo is 12-4 ATS as a home favorite the last four seasons, and 24-12 ATS in its last 36 chances as a home favorite. Plus, the Rockets now how to kill a team's momentum. Under Toledo Tom, the Rockets are 13-2 ATS at home vs an opponent off a win.

Meanwhile, his counterpart at Kansas, Mangino is 3-17 straight up on the road, and only 7-12 ATS as a road dog. They're 5-10 ATS on the road against non-conference teams and just 3-6 ATS in their first road game of the season.

So we have a team who is lights out at home both straight up and against the spot versus a team that is mediocre in both situations on the road. I like the fact that Amstutz in 32-9-1 ATS in straight up wins, and currently rides a 27-4 ATS run within that trend.

Sure, hosting a Big-12 team is a step up in general competition for Toledo. In the past, the Rockets, under Amstutz, have lost by doublen digits on the road to Minnesota, Pittsburgh and UNLV. But, he has beaten each of those clubs when they have played in the Glass Bowl. Just two seasons ago, KU tore up the Rockets down in Lawrence. Rockets finally get them on their turf tonight and will get revenge tonight. I have no problem laying the small chalk with a team that consistently wins money at home against a program that consistently burns money on the road.

Good luck!!

 

[Dead Money]

I like em to...

I like em to...

The key is the OL play of Toledo....Kansas linebacking corp is very inexperienced. They return only 3 starters on defense.
They were lucky to beat Louisiana Monroe at home 21-19.
Their other win was Division 2 Northwestern State, and Kansas trailed early.
If Cochran gets time to pass, he should shred them...

You have to ask why a 2-0 big 12 team is a dog to 0-2 Toledo, the books know something, Kansas +4 looks like the easy choice.

Glta

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Dead Money...great point about the OL play.....they have four starters back from last year, three of which are over 300 lbs, which i think has got to be a lot of beef compared to what you see in most MAC programs......they have done a decent job in the running game, but have given up ill timed sacks and Cochrane's inexperience showed in some of those as he took huge losses....since those numbers are taken out of the rushing stats, Toledo's offensive numbers dont look that balanced......they have not had any trouble moving the footbal in either of their first two games, and i expect them to do the same in their home opener......i am not sure KU will have an answer for TE Chris Hopkins.

We'll see.....good luck tonight and the rest of the weekend!!

 

[Jabberwocky]

thanks for the info...All I needed was a justification for taking Toledo (since I know shit about either team). Way too many Kansas backers for me. I am on Toledo. Gl to us. GO ROCKETS!

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Everyone also seemed to be on Oregon St last week, and that did not go too well!!! I had Boise, and it is the only favorite i have played in college ball so far on the season.....until tonight, of course.

I think most see Toledo losing by 21 last week, and Gradkowski getting good publicity as a QB for Tampa throughout training camp and the CW is, well, Toledo is rebuilding.....that is not the case.....maybe gman can speak to this, but is there a program with better talent year in and year out than Toledo has in the MAC.

But what really gets me is the line of logic that since KU is talking big about changing their road luck, that they will just go ahead and do it.....but, consider the Toledo lockerroom....is not Amstutz preaching the importance of defending home turf, not starting the year 0-3, avoiding the first three game losing streak in years and, well, just keeping the overall winning traditionn that's been built there alive and strong.

Bottomline, KU hopes to win on the road, but Toledo expects to win at home.....when you're dealing with college kids, that is a big difference.

Just think Toledo comes out smoking tonight and KU does not have the firepower to match it, or an experienced enough defense to really contain it.

Again, we'll see....that's why they call it gambling.

Weekend almost here....great games all over the place, and i can not wait!!!

 

[gman2]

within the last decade or so, absolutely -- toledo is probably the most consistent program in the conference with miami the same way on the eastern side of the conference. both programs just reload and are consistently solid. cochran has the chance to be another in a long line of solid UT quarterbacks.

theres a chance i will be catching this one in person tonight. will you be in attendance or watching it on espn?

 

[Toledo Prophet]

gman:
Unfortuneatly, i will not be in attendance.....i should be home right before kickoff, so who knows i might just mosey down the street and see if i can get in.......big night for Toledo sports with the Rockets hosting an ESPN game and the Mud Hens downtown in the IL World Series......if you go, have a blast......either way, good luck on your games this weekend!!

 

[Skipper]

TP,

What do you think about playing the over? My rationale is if Toledo scores 27, then if KU covers, the over would have to hit.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

TP, you had me at cogent . . .

Go Rockets!

 

[vinnie]

Way too many Kansas backers for me.

Kansas 39%
Toledo 61%:shrug:

 

[DeadPrez]

something else to support the rockets tonite is they were -4 in the turnover department last week. I love betting teams the week after they turn the ball over a bunch in a bad loss. Hopefully Toledo wipes that butter off their fingers tonight! If so they should have a good result

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Skipper: The Over should always be looked at in Toledo games......the winner of their games scores big......consider the winner of Rocket games the last four seasons (plus two this year) have scored less than 30 points only seven times; that's out of 53 total games!! The last two seasons, plus this year, the winner of Toledo games has scored an average of 41.3 points per game......the O/U is set now at 50, so if this ends up being an average Toledo game, then the loser, regardless of who wins or covers, wont need to score many points for the Over to hit at that number.....I will admit that i dont play many totals in college, but i would never feel good playing an Under in a Toledo game, unless the number is jump off the page high. 50 is not that high of a bar.

DeadPrez: Never really tracked that TO theory, but i like the sound of it. Any winning plays yet this season with that line of thought?

johnnyonthespot: Thanks, but my vocab takes a dirty and, at times, bitter turn when my bets begin to go south......let's hope that does not happen tonight!

vinnie: yeah, one of the online books i use lists it at 55-45% in favor of Toledo....not to speak for someone else, but i think jabberwocky's comment referred to the fact that when i initially posted and he responded, most of the other threads here were picking KU....just a guess.

 

[IntenseOperator]

TP, you had me at cogent . . .

Go Rockets!

:mj07:

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Hope i didn't burn all my luck this weekend on one game.....wow, i see a painful loss somewhere down the line to even out this baby.....on to tomorrow.....here are my leans for the kicks:

Pitt
Iowa
BYU