Week 3 Card (Sept 12th-16th)

[Irish]

Kan/Tol OVER (10) 1st quarter

Toledo has not scored in the first quarter of either of their games, while Kansas has score at least a TD in it games. That spells under but Kansas has allowed teams to score at least 6 on them in the 1st of their games. Toledo has allowed both teams they played to score 7 in the first quarter. So Kansas averages a TD in the first, While both team allow a TD in the first. I thought I would explain the pick considering I was going to slow down on quarter plays.

Cheers
Irish

 

[stwoody]

Great Write Ups

Great Write Ups

I enjoyed reading your write-ups.........very adept and precise. I just wanted to comment on the Quackers as I think your probably on the right side..........a best kept secret is Autzen (as you mentioned) its a tough place for visiting teams...........actually ranks right up there with some of the Marquis home fields, yes....even in the SEC. I don't know why.......as Eugene is a upper middle class town, but their football is taken very seriously, and its loud. Of course, Oklahoma won't be intimidated by the noise as thats the status quo in the Big 12. My only concern is a talk with a pal that lives in Eugene. Def. coordinator Mike Aliotti is under some fire from the boosters and that is really no surprise........hell the only reason he is coordinator is his man boy Mike Belliotti are best compadres, and basically have been together since their days at Hayward, then Chico St. When Mike left the program to give it a go in the NFL (Rams) he was found out very quickly. A short tenure at UCLA proved worthless, as I don't remember, but teams frequently found the end zone. I made a lot of money betting overs when he was at UCLA. He is creative, and loves to stem, roll, zone blitz, etc.......but he often leaves his team hanging by guessing. Its probably the biggest reason Oregon is often in shootouts, as their offense must score to win games.

Sooners looked less than impressive against Washington last week, but I fear they were looking ahead to this match. Aliotti will key Peterson, but if Stoops is smart he will use that to a major advantage, and the weak side of the field may have some huge holes.

I'm not saying Oregon won't win the game, but it could very well be a field goal game......and this might be an opportuinity to cover the ML at +168......Peterson will get his.....as D Co. isn't a good guesser. Of course the problem is Oklahoma...........this team doesn't have an identity yet, although the pollsters loved them early. I would also consider the Over at 50.5......this could very well be played in the high 20's or 30's. Bellioti is a pass first thinker.....and Jon Stewarts ankle injury (70%) gives him more impetus to throw. Both teams averaging in the 30's.....so the over is my lean at this moment, although last years score at the Holiday Bowl had me scratchin my head.

Love your write ups and just wanted to throw this in............One thing is for sure......we should know what type of team this Sooner football is after Saturday. Like I said, I'm not trying to talk you out of your play (I wouldn't do that to anyone) but I try to keep a pulse on some of the No. Cal/Oregon PAC 10 teams.

Good Luck on your play!
Stwoody

 

[Irish]

Stwood
Thanks for the info, looking at this game I have to take into all Stoops said during the off season about how losing Bomar makes him want to go coach pro and how that kills not only this year but years to follow. This is a coach with a hiesman RB saying that. I know that he is talking mainly about how that effect recruiting but I take that is he knows if someon leans to shut Peterson down, which is near impossible, then the offense is gonna look terrible. Also his comments make me think that he knows his defense isn't as strong as years past. Both of these things have been seen in the first two games. Petterson has carries 52 times in 2 games. Thompson has 4 TD's and 3 Picks and is completing 60% of his passes. Not only that but he is not running the ball like the coaching staff thought, with on like 17 years on 6 carries. All of these factors and considering those were 2 home games for the sooners just makes me question what type of team they really have down there. Nothing is for certain but I like the ducks offense and they will key on petterson, but Stoops has been out coaches in a lot of games and I don't expect him to come in with a drastic change to his offensive gameplan.All that and this is a HUGE game for the ducks and they will be focused and ready. Now as always misques, turnovers and bad things can happen but I think the ducks run but Oklahoma. The sooners will keep it close but the ducks offense keeps it out of reach.

Cheers
Irish

 

[The Judge]

Very nice post stwoody as I agree with virtually all of your takes on these teams.

I also am a fan of Irish's analyses which he unselfishly provides to this board throughout the football season. I agree that Oregon is the right side in this game although my perspective is based on how poorly the Sooner defense has performed since the departure of MIKE Stoops. More every day, I believe that Mike was the unrecognized force behind Oklahoma's success and I am surprised that his contribution to the OU program has not been properly acknowledged.

 

[Irish]

Mich St (ML) over Pitt
This is a better Pitt team than a year ago. However, they did not show me much aside from some lucky big plays against Cincy. It wasn't a convincing win like the game against Virginia. Still at home Pitt is a better team and should be ready for play. MSU has not really looks impressive but they have a lot of offensive firepower and this is the first real test for either team. What Cincy showed me was Pitt is bad against the pass and Stanton (70% completions) should be hitting Trannon and Reed to coninue drives and get big plays. Ringer is averaging 6.5 yards a carry but again it is against bad defenses. I love the mobility of Stanton and how he can change the game. He is a warrior with a lotof heart, not as emotional as Palko but thats a good thing. Hopefully the michigan st defense can start playing better and living up to expectation. Coach John L. Smith was angry at the way his defense let Eastern Michigan back in the game last week. The MSU secondary should be tested by Pitt's passing attack, which has averaged 275 yards. But Coach Smith says the defense stop playing and gave up some cheap ones and should be improved this week. Still I think this is gonna be a good game but I like the talent on States team and I think they can limit Pitts production. If the MSU defense plays well I expect Palko to explode. Not only does the coaching staff HAVE to left him throw to keep his head in the gae but if he has a few 3 and outs he will let his emotions take over.

Cheers
Irish

 

[trolln4walii]

GL today Irish. As always, great info! Thanks. With you on Ore and Fres :mj06:

 

[Irish]

Ball St (+17) over Purdue
Purdue ranks first in the Big Ten and fifth nationally in points per game (49.0. Purdue is not as good as they are billed, they beat up on an Indiana St team and almost lost to a Miami (OH) squad. Painter completes about half of his passes and has throw 3 picks against poor teams. Purdue can't stop other teams from passing. The Boilers have allowed 621 yards and five scores through the air. The boilermakers start two true freshman and a junior-college transfer and one senior in the secondary. Ball St beat E. Mich (bad team) and played well against Indiana but did not hold on in that game. Joey Lynch should find a lot of passing options and he will take advantage but he has to be a bit more accurate. Not saying Ball st is going to win this game but they do have a lot of leadership on the team. Purdue has Minny next week and this would be a nice little look past game if the boilermakers are buying their hype. Yes Purdue plays well at home but with that secondary, and Ball St?s QB and receivers IMO 17 is a bit high. Just like I said Earlier in g-mans thread, Nate Davis is waiting to get a chance completing 78% of his passes and throwing 3 TD?s. Either way Ball St is going to throw the ball and they should be able to against his defense. The offensive line needs to give either QB some time and Ball might have a shot at the upset still I like getting 17.

Looks like its time for brunch.... lets see Steak and Eggs or Irish coffee toast and a Guinness? I choose the latter. GL today to all

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

Texas Tech (-1.5) over TCU
TCU will be facing a 24th-ranked Red Raiders (2-0) squad that ripped the Horned Fogs 70-35 in the teams' last meeting on Sept. 18, 2004. Shawn Ball threw all day against TCU and he does not have the weapons TT does at WR. The TCU defense uses speed but TT should give time and the B should make them pay. TCU is a great home team and they get a boost with Merrill able to carry a bit more but TT has not allowed more than 120 yards on the ground this season. IMO the red raiders have too much offense for TCU and Herrell is a better QB than Ballard. Mind you that against Baylor TCU struggles to move the ball and aside from 1 BIG play they were in jeopardy of losing that game. In that game Ballard got hit many times and the Red Raiders should be able to get pressure on Ballard. This should be a good game, two teams and a lot of offense but in an offensive showdown I believe Texas Tech has the better potential.

Cheers
Irish

 

[adfreak]

GL Irish! Been following this board for a few years and always look for your insight. I just started posting this year.

 

[Fluidoz]

I hope you are wrong. But I have to agree. Auburn at home is a tall order for LSU to fill. There Def. is very tough. But Auburn should scramble for a "W" here.
Great Write ups. Thanks

 

[RexBudler]

thanks and gl today Irish

 

[Irish]

Neb (+18) over USC
USC looked good, very good in their last game. Now they get Nebraska who has show to have a bit of talent. But do they really have what it takes to make a game of it today. I think USC has the far better talent but Nebraska believes and should come out ready to play. I do not like the fact the CB for Neb gave the Trojans some bulletin board material but I?ll live with that because it shows the huskers believe in themselves. The Trojans (1-0) have won 46 of their last 48 games, won national championships in 2004 and 2005. That?s not luck, it comes down to talent and recruiting. The Nebraska defense is untested but they do have ability on offense and that?s where I expect a few TD?s. They do not have to stop USC because I am not sure they can but they will use emotion to keep this game close and the offense will have to play above normal production level to keep this close. 17 points is a lot of chalk considering this is the second game for Booty. He has awesome talent at WR but the Nebraska defense has some ability as well. Like I said the Nebraska defense will not shut down the USC offense but they can stop a few drives and be productive themselves. This offense production on both sides uses clock and then the new rules also use clock time. That makes 17 look even better and Nebraska west coast PAC -10 style offense gives them a shot in this game. I dislike Callahan and I am not sold on his coaching ability but I think he has some plays and his players step up to the challenge. Not sure if they will but they are better than Ark (without its best player). For some reason I just think with the ability of Nebraska?s offense 17 might be a bit too much, but it is always dangerous to go to USC without your best coverman. USC also has secondary issues and I like the size of the Neb TE in the middle of the field. Not more than I like the size of the USC WR's but I'll take that TE to keep drives moving.

Cheers
Irish

 

[DeadPrez]

good luck as always irish

 

[Irish]

ND (-5.5) over Mich
This game has always killed me, Mich and ND always seem to play each other tough but I like ND. They finally got the offense moving against Penn st and the defense showed they are up to the test. This is the first road game for Michigan and they haven?t seen the type teams ND has seen in the first 2 weeks. ND plays well at home, they have the advantage in coaching and they are the overall stronger team. Still this will be a dog fight and Michigan has the talent to play with the Irish. Saying that GT and Penn St have players too and ND has had practice against solid players. I think last week was a sign that ND?s offense is in form and they continue to prove that this week. This play comes down to who the teams have played in the past weeks. I think ND is just more battle tested. True this can work against them as they have to battle every week but it is early enough in the season that they have enough in the tank and Wies will have his boys ready to prove something again. I like the home field crowd because ND feeds off them and they need to get out early making that crowd a factor for Michigan. This again should be a good game to watch but ND have proven they are ready and Michigan has beating up on less talent.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

Maimi (ML) over Louisville
Yes the Cards have a great offense, yes they do play well at home but they have not been tested and today IMO you see what a big blow it was to lose M. Bush. The Miami defense is extremely quick and they have the ability to stay with Louisville. The D-lineman will not get pushed around and moved like Louisville has been doing to its other teams. The only question mark I have is can Miami move the ball on offense with big plays. They have the talent but I am not sure they are high powered. Still Louisville is NOT a high powered defense. Louisville is just not tough in my eyes and I cannot see them deal with the Hurricanes team speed. I know this will be a good game but Maimi has been teasted with FSU and Louisville have not been teated. This game will be a dog fight and my played is based on Miami ready for this game and Louisville just riding its early success. Need Olsen and Wright to "find each other cause you need each other" (sorry Friday night lights quote... I think I'm getting a buzz). Back to the reason, Olsen, Wright and the defense team speed.

Cheers
Irish

 

[KG5678]

Hope you right on your ND and Miami games.... :SIB

 

[Irish]

Tenn (+3) over FLA
FLA hasn?t played a very good team yet. Cutcliff?s offense is very suitable for Ainge and the talent Tenn has at WR. The o-line is big and strong and will get a test from the FLA defense but they still should keep Ainge off his back and the WR need to get the ball and make plays. Yes Tenn played poorly against Air Force but they were looking ahead to this game and at home they will be up to the challenge. The FLA offense has looked good and they will come in and play against a banged up defense but this is still a defense that has shut down another high powered offense in Cal. All three of their losses last season came away from Gainesville. This will be a very good game and I look forward to watching it but I think getting points at home against a bad road team, even with key players missing on defense might have the Vols winning this game but I?ll take the three points because these teams will fight. The Fla offense under Myers is a good system and Tenn will have to play well but they need to step up and make plays using the crowd energy. The offense will have to move the ball, let the talent at WR for Tenn is a difference maker. Tenn has shown they can play with a high powered offense but Fla has not and this will be a big teast still getting points at home with Fulmer NOT calling the plays is a good advantage and that?s why I like the Vols.

Cheers
Irish

 

[KG5678]

15 unanswered by Ball State... Good stuff.

 

[Irish]

Hawaii (-11) over UNLV
Hawaii at home is always fun, they are coming off the Bama loss and get the UNLV that is always a gamble. The bad news is Boise state is on the doorstep for Hawaii and they might be looking past the running rebs. What I like is they have had a week off before this game so the kids are looking forward to playing and that favors the Warriors coming off a tough loss to Bama at Bama. UNLV just gave Iowa St a game A Iowa St but 2 straight travel games and the time difference might be enough for the warriors to catch the Rebs sleeping. UNLV has 6 players on the roster from Hawaii and this is a big game for the team. UNLV stayed on the field some 15 minutes after its 16-10 loss at Iowa State protesting a call that negated the game-winning touchdown pass on the game's final play. This emotional let down might stick in their head if a play goes Hawaii?s way early. UNLV also showed major signs of improvement from last season in its first two games, averaging 345.0 yards allowed and forcing 11 punts to the Rebels' six. Against BAMA Brennan threw for 350 yards, now that is not an easy task in Bama against that defense regardless of the talent they lost from a year ago. Hawaii is a much improved team and they should look to open its offense up against the Rebs. Hawaii is a strong home team and off a loss they will look to bury UNLV. The Hawaii defense has made steps and have gotten better, they are not great but they will be a test for UNLV. The combination of the time off, the offense, being at home and coaching make Hawaii my play and I think Jones and Glanville will have their boys ready to hang a big number on UNLV. Looking for Bess to have a huge game.

Oregon makes me sick, they could have attacked all day through the air??? Oh well, add it to the bad beats I have been hammered with today.

Cheers
Irish

 

[KG5678]

Titty Tech has 1 field goal all game. :shrug: