4-2 (+1.87)
Not sure I can tell anyone here to take this seriously or not, 'cause I'm struggling to believe it myself.
Week 2, notorious for big over-reactions, big favs aren't the way to a solid gold house and a rocket car at the best of times, and here I am laying about 60 points!!!! :scared
Oh man...
Everyone loves a good trend, so here goes...
Since '89 League: 2-15 ats (Av. loss 20.4!) away 10+ dog, off any ats loss as a home fav of 3 or less, if this weeks opp was last away. [Cleveland & Tenn]
(0-3 last season; SL 28-45 Indi @ +13.5, Jets 3-16 NE @ +10, Oak 3-22 Denv @ +13)
Cinci -10.5 (1.95)
SD -11.5 (1.95)
Basically, these 2 teams are every bit as bad as they looked this week, and SD/Cinci (happy to be back home it seems) really should be able to run away with big wins.
They wil need to of course, given the -10/-10.5 spreads, but I think I'd take both up to 14!
As expected Cleveland didn't fire a shot on the weekend. Frye was hurried all day, was sacked 14 times!!...threw for just 4.9 y/p with 2 picks. The running game produced just 41 yards in 13 attempts (minus scrambles), and that was against a below par NO D.
Cinci's main concern is their pass D, but I just don't think Frye will have the protection/time/options (Jurevicius out now too) or talent to take advantage.
Rudi Johnson will have another massive day given the Browns allowed 150 yards rushing and Palmer will have multiple options (the Housh should be back)
Cleveland do have a very good recent record @ Cinci, but I just can't see them being able to score enough to keep it close.
Same goes for the Titans. No stability @ QB at all. A rookie and a guy still learning the system who has been a bust for the last few years anyway! Against this hungry SD defense it will be a long and ugly day I suspect.
SD's running game will be outstanding all year, and Rivers definately showed enough today to suggest he can make big throws when necessary.
Add that the Chargers are 14-3-1 last 18 v. losing teams, and we should have another blow-out.
Chicago -8.5 (1.93)
League: 10-4 (12-2 this no...av. win 20.4!!) home 7+ fav, off a 21+ ats win as away fav of 7 or less, if opp was last a 'dog. [Chic]
(1-1 last season; Sea 41-3 SF as -16, Pits 35-21 Det as -16)
League: 1-12-3 (1-15 this no!...Av. loss 22.1!!) away 7+ dog, off any ats win as home dog, if opp won by at least 7 ats as any away fav. [Det]
(0-1 in 2005; Jets 3-30 Caro as +9)
...there's 2 common games in those trends, so combined this is a 25-3 ats (at this number) situation!! :SIB
Effectively both say the same thing. Chicago are playing very well, winning big as an away fav, and the line is too low because Det performed above expectations, but they are still rubbish, as witnessed by them being a home dog in the first place.
Grossman threw for over 10 y/p, the running gme was solid, the defense always solid...The Lions are still very much rebuilding and will struggle, esp. on the road this season.
Specifically, in this game I doubt if they will have any success on the ground at all (they had just 39 rushing yards last week), which will inevitably lead to a pick or 2, or 3.
...oh, and anyone who doesn't believe things aren't quite right in the Lions camp....Marinelli spent the previous 10 seasons coaching Tampa Bay's defensive line and coached the unit in place of Joe Cullen, who was arrested twice recently on suspicion of drunken driving and because police say he was driving nude. Cullen will be back to coach in the next game at Chicago, Marinelli said.
I rest my case. :mj07:
Game of the week for me.
Indi -13 (1.95)
League: 10-1 (Av. win 20.2) home 10+ fav, off any ats win as away fav of 3 or less, if opp is off a 7+ ats loss. [Indi]
(2-0 last season; Den 27-0 Jets as -13, SD 34-10 Oak as -11)
League: 1-8 (Av. loss 24.9!) away 10+ dog, off a 7+ ats loss as a home dog, if total is >44.5. [Houston]
Again, 1 common game here, so a combined 17-2 trend.
Probably my least favourite pick of the week. It's tough taking Indi as a big fav when they will have one of the most negative rushing differentials this season...but, having said that, they did play the Giants who are one of the very best running teams...and also it didn't matter!
Pretty strong trend, saying that Indi did the job last week, and should go on their merry way playing a crap team at home who under performed last week anyway...and the high total shows what we already know, that Houston's D is crap. McNabb 300+ yards, 3 TD's...over 5 y/r, so Manning will have fun, and hopefully they can get something going on the ground.
One thing Indi's D is good at is rushing the passer, and Carr was sacked 5 times last week, and continues to throw poor balls and make bad decisions under pressure.
Indi dominated the meeting last year...won by just 14, but fumbled twice. They had 26-11 FD's and 419-209 yards...besides, 14 will do the trick here anyway.
Minni +2 (1.99)
League: 18-1-1!! (Av. WIN 6.4...16-4 SU!!) home dog of 3 or less, off a SU win of 3 or less as an away dog of <7. [Min]
10-0 (9-1 SU!!...Av. WIN 10.9!!) if the total is <40.
I can't really understand why Carolina are favs in this game anyway? Coming off a terrible performance, getting completely out-played at home, are people banking on the 'bounce-back' factor here??
Delhomme threw for just 4.7 y/p and was sacked 4 times...which isn't likely to improve in a hurry, given their starting left guard is now out for the season.
I know Minni are learning a new system and aren't the greatest of teams themselves, but they do have a solid running game, Brad Johnson doesn't make mistakes and can make a big play when needed, and their defense looks to have improved significantly.
I don't think they deserve to be home dogs here...hopefully a +3 will be available somewhere...but very tempted by the ML as it is.
Denver -10.5 (1.94)
League: 3-9 (1-11 this no...av. loss 18.2) away 10+ dog off a 10+ ats home loss, if opp is also off a 10+ ats loss. [KC]
Basically says that they are crap and the line is too low because of Denver's (non!) performance last week....and I agree.
KC are about the worst team in football right now! A makeshift o-line in progress, a terrible defense and now a no. 2 QB....and bascially Denver moved the ball easily enough, but turned it over 5 times.
They won't have to worry about Plummer throwing it away this week, because he might not have to throw it at all!
The Broncos ran for 161 yards @ 6.4 y/r! But 2 early fumbles lead to Jake playing catch-up and forcing silly throws.
If they protect the ball this week, they should be able to run up a big enough score to cover the -10 easily.
They've won the last 5 home meetings by an av. of 13.8 ppg, inc. a 20 point win last year.
Good Luck all
Not sure I can tell anyone here to take this seriously or not, 'cause I'm struggling to believe it myself.
Week 2, notorious for big over-reactions, big favs aren't the way to a solid gold house and a rocket car at the best of times, and here I am laying about 60 points!!!! :scared
Oh man...
Everyone loves a good trend, so here goes...
Since '89 League: 2-15 ats (Av. loss 20.4!) away 10+ dog, off any ats loss as a home fav of 3 or less, if this weeks opp was last away. [Cleveland & Tenn]
(0-3 last season; SL 28-45 Indi @ +13.5, Jets 3-16 NE @ +10, Oak 3-22 Denv @ +13)
Cinci -10.5 (1.95)
SD -11.5 (1.95)
Basically, these 2 teams are every bit as bad as they looked this week, and SD/Cinci (happy to be back home it seems) really should be able to run away with big wins.
They wil need to of course, given the -10/-10.5 spreads, but I think I'd take both up to 14!
As expected Cleveland didn't fire a shot on the weekend. Frye was hurried all day, was sacked 14 times!!...threw for just 4.9 y/p with 2 picks. The running game produced just 41 yards in 13 attempts (minus scrambles), and that was against a below par NO D.
Cinci's main concern is their pass D, but I just don't think Frye will have the protection/time/options (Jurevicius out now too) or talent to take advantage.
Rudi Johnson will have another massive day given the Browns allowed 150 yards rushing and Palmer will have multiple options (the Housh should be back)
Cleveland do have a very good recent record @ Cinci, but I just can't see them being able to score enough to keep it close.
Same goes for the Titans. No stability @ QB at all. A rookie and a guy still learning the system who has been a bust for the last few years anyway! Against this hungry SD defense it will be a long and ugly day I suspect.
SD's running game will be outstanding all year, and Rivers definately showed enough today to suggest he can make big throws when necessary.
Add that the Chargers are 14-3-1 last 18 v. losing teams, and we should have another blow-out.
Chicago -8.5 (1.93)
League: 10-4 (12-2 this no...av. win 20.4!!) home 7+ fav, off a 21+ ats win as away fav of 7 or less, if opp was last a 'dog. [Chic]
(1-1 last season; Sea 41-3 SF as -16, Pits 35-21 Det as -16)
League: 1-12-3 (1-15 this no!...Av. loss 22.1!!) away 7+ dog, off any ats win as home dog, if opp won by at least 7 ats as any away fav. [Det]
(0-1 in 2005; Jets 3-30 Caro as +9)
...there's 2 common games in those trends, so combined this is a 25-3 ats (at this number) situation!! :SIB
Effectively both say the same thing. Chicago are playing very well, winning big as an away fav, and the line is too low because Det performed above expectations, but they are still rubbish, as witnessed by them being a home dog in the first place.
Grossman threw for over 10 y/p, the running gme was solid, the defense always solid...The Lions are still very much rebuilding and will struggle, esp. on the road this season.
Specifically, in this game I doubt if they will have any success on the ground at all (they had just 39 rushing yards last week), which will inevitably lead to a pick or 2, or 3.
...oh, and anyone who doesn't believe things aren't quite right in the Lions camp....Marinelli spent the previous 10 seasons coaching Tampa Bay's defensive line and coached the unit in place of Joe Cullen, who was arrested twice recently on suspicion of drunken driving and because police say he was driving nude. Cullen will be back to coach in the next game at Chicago, Marinelli said.
I rest my case. :mj07:
Game of the week for me.
Indi -13 (1.95)
League: 10-1 (Av. win 20.2) home 10+ fav, off any ats win as away fav of 3 or less, if opp is off a 7+ ats loss. [Indi]
(2-0 last season; Den 27-0 Jets as -13, SD 34-10 Oak as -11)
League: 1-8 (Av. loss 24.9!) away 10+ dog, off a 7+ ats loss as a home dog, if total is >44.5. [Houston]
Again, 1 common game here, so a combined 17-2 trend.
Probably my least favourite pick of the week. It's tough taking Indi as a big fav when they will have one of the most negative rushing differentials this season...but, having said that, they did play the Giants who are one of the very best running teams...and also it didn't matter!
Pretty strong trend, saying that Indi did the job last week, and should go on their merry way playing a crap team at home who under performed last week anyway...and the high total shows what we already know, that Houston's D is crap. McNabb 300+ yards, 3 TD's...over 5 y/r, so Manning will have fun, and hopefully they can get something going on the ground.
One thing Indi's D is good at is rushing the passer, and Carr was sacked 5 times last week, and continues to throw poor balls and make bad decisions under pressure.
Indi dominated the meeting last year...won by just 14, but fumbled twice. They had 26-11 FD's and 419-209 yards...besides, 14 will do the trick here anyway.
Minni +2 (1.99)
League: 18-1-1!! (Av. WIN 6.4...16-4 SU!!) home dog of 3 or less, off a SU win of 3 or less as an away dog of <7. [Min]
10-0 (9-1 SU!!...Av. WIN 10.9!!) if the total is <40.
I can't really understand why Carolina are favs in this game anyway? Coming off a terrible performance, getting completely out-played at home, are people banking on the 'bounce-back' factor here??
Delhomme threw for just 4.7 y/p and was sacked 4 times...which isn't likely to improve in a hurry, given their starting left guard is now out for the season.
I know Minni are learning a new system and aren't the greatest of teams themselves, but they do have a solid running game, Brad Johnson doesn't make mistakes and can make a big play when needed, and their defense looks to have improved significantly.
I don't think they deserve to be home dogs here...hopefully a +3 will be available somewhere...but very tempted by the ML as it is.
Denver -10.5 (1.94)
League: 3-9 (1-11 this no...av. loss 18.2) away 10+ dog off a 10+ ats home loss, if opp is also off a 10+ ats loss. [KC]
Basically says that they are crap and the line is too low because of Denver's (non!) performance last week....and I agree.
KC are about the worst team in football right now! A makeshift o-line in progress, a terrible defense and now a no. 2 QB....and bascially Denver moved the ball easily enough, but turned it over 5 times.
They won't have to worry about Plummer throwing it away this week, because he might not have to throw it at all!
The Broncos ran for 161 yards @ 6.4 y/r! But 2 early fumbles lead to Jake playing catch-up and forcing silly throws.
If they protect the ball this week, they should be able to run up a big enough score to cover the -10 easily.
They've won the last 5 home meetings by an av. of 13.8 ppg, inc. a 20 point win last year.
Good Luck all
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