The Judge?s Docket
MICHIGAN vs. NOTRE DAME ? September 16th, 3:30 pm EST
After an unimpressive start against Georgia Tech in Week One, the Fighting Irish rose to No. 2 in the polls on the heels of last week?s drubbing of Joe Pa?s boys. The Irish are playing pretty well to begin the season after ending their 2005 campaign by giving up a school record 617 yards total offense to Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl. In their first two games, the boys from South Bend have only yielded a combined 642 yards.
In two games, Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn has completed 65% of his passes for a total of 533 yards with no interceptions and an average of 7.2 yards per attempt. Last year at this time, Quinn had thrown for a mere 367 yards so on the surface this has been a substantial improvement. However, after rushing for 1,196 yards and nine touchdowns as a sophomore, ND running back Darius Walker is off to a slow start with only 155 yards rushing in these contests.
The problem here is perception as Notre Dame is being perceived as being on the verge of returning to their dominance of years gone by. However, the Yellow Jackets have yet to prove that they can do anything other than score 10 points on the Irish and 38 on lowly Samford and Penn State is definitely not the same team that breezed through the Big 10 last year to end the season with an 11-1 record. Tony Hunt from PSU and Tashard Choice of Tech are nothing more than average running backs, yet the Notre Dame defense has allowed these guys to run for a combined 277 yards in those games. Most will look at last week?s final score and surmise that the Nittany Lions were dominated but the truth is that the Penn State offense was only outgained by Notre Dame's by a total of 14 yards but simply failed to score when they should have.
Despite being labeled as inconsistent last year, Michigan QB Chad Henne was statistically, nearly as productive as he was during his stellar freshman season when he led the Wolverines to the Rose Bowl. In Michigan?s first two games against Central Michigan and Vanderbilt, Henne seems to have struggled in completing just 21 of 41 passing attempts for 248 yards but I believe that is due to the play calling. Michigan has thrown downfield very seldom which is probably by design and considering the fact that the Irish?s pass defense in 2005 was one of the worst in the nation, I expect to see the passing game open up this week. Michigan has lost seven of their last eight road openers and three of their last four games against the Golden Domers so you can bet that HC Lloyd Carr has not been anxious to show much against his opponents thus far. Notre Dame HC Charlie Weis will also not have much to look at on tape of the Michigan defense as they have a new coordinator this year.
Michigan RB Mike Hart is healthy and is looking like he will to have a big season in ?06. In his first two games, Hart has rushed for 262 yards in limited playing time. Hart was greatly missed by the Wolverines last year as he was plagued with injuries and when he is pounding the ball, this is a different team than the one that went 7-5 in 2005. He and Kevin Grady present an awesome one-two punch and the Wolverines should be able to control the clock and keep Quinn & Co. on the sidelines during prolonged drives. This is a talented and balanced offense which will give the Irish fits.
Again, this play is about the public?s perception of Michigan?s dismal record last season, their recent lack of success in road openers and against the Irish, Notre Dame?s ?domination? over PSU last week and their No. 2 ranking in the polls. All of this combines to give us some real value in backing the Wolverines.
The Verdict: MICHIGAN (+6)
MISSOURI vs. NEW MEXICO ? September 16th, 8:00 pm EST
New Mexico started their season two weeks ago with an embarrassing 17-6 loss to Portland State. The offensive system put in place by new OC Bob Toledo stumbled at every turn and was only able to score two field goals with 339 yards of total offense. The Lobos turned the ball over three times and were flagged for 11 penalties for a total of 93 yards in the defeat to the Div. IIA school. That ?effort? was followed up by 38-24 a win last week at New Mexico State although the Aggies? QB Chase Holbrook was able to burn the Lobo secondary to the tune of 472 yards passing. That is not good news for New Mexico as they welcome another Chase to town this Saturday.
Missouri QB Chase Daniel has stepped in to the shoes of a departed Brad Smith without missing a beat. In the Tigers? first two games against Murray State and Mississippi, Daniel has passed for a total of 586 yards and six touchdowns. In those games, Missouri scored a total of 81 points while their defense only allowed a single touchdown in each. The 34-7 rout over Ole Miss last week could have been much worse as two of the Tiger field goals were kicked from inside the 10 yard line. After being named the Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week for his performance against Murray State, Daniel showed last week that he is multi-dimensional by leading the Tigers with 89 yards rushing to go along with 243 yards passing.
On defense, Missouri absolutely dominated the Rebels by limiting them to 162 total yards and only 10 first downs, causing them to either punt or throw interceptions on 13 of 14 possessions. The only thing that prevented Missouri from securing a shutout was a fumbled punt return, which allowed Ole Miss to start from the Tigers 35 to set up a touchdown late in the first half.
In a 45-35 upset last season, UNM allowed 35 first downs to Missouri which is a number that should easily be surpassed in this revenge match-up. Here we have two teams going in opposite directions and a line that seems to under the radar. I?ll ride with the under rated team from the ?Show Me? State.
The Verdict: MISSOURI (-13.5)
NAVY vs. STANFORD, September 16th, 10:00 pm EST
Stanford will celebrate the opening of their newly renovated stadium this Saturday night by playing host to the Midshipmen of Navy in their home opener. The Cardinal is hoping that the new digs will be what the doctor ordered in turning around their season which has gotten off to a rocky start with road losses to Oregon and San Diego State. In those games, Stanford gave up a total of 991 yards to the opposing offenses and an average of 318 rushing yards and 7.1 yards per carry. That is not good news with the Middies on deck.
The boys from Annapolis are on a very nice 13-4 SU run with two of the four losses being by just three points. In Navy?s last 22 games, they have rushed for at least 200 yards in every one of them. In their last 59 games as an underdog, the Middies have an unbelievable 47-12 ATS record overall and are 29-4 ATS as visitors getting points. In their first two games against East Carolina and UMass, the Navy triple threat option has averaged 335 yards rushing and had to be absolutely drooling over the game film of the Stanford/SJSU matchup last week in which the porous Cardinal defense allowed 342 yards in 49 rushing attempts. No surprise considering that five of the eight defensive linemen who are on the Stanford roster had never played in a college game before this season. The wrong team is favored in this one.
The Verdict: NAVY (+1)
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