NFL Week #2 thread..and another BIG Play!

[FirstnGoal]

For Week #2?I really like this game and it?s line value? so hit it ASAP before the line moves!






Last week I went 3-2 for the week but my BIG Play of the Bears -3 easily cashed in!



$$$$$$




New Orleans Saints ?pk
Over Green Bay

I?m looking to fatten my wallet by going against the Packers again this week!...as I stated last week?the middle of the Packers O-Line is young and porous at this time and this week they will be facing a Saints Defensive Line that I feel is as talented as the one they faced last week in the Bears?the Saints D-Line is the strength of their Defense and I expect the boys from bayou country to dominate their matchup with the Packers O-Line? which will spell trouble for the turnover plagued QB for the Pack -Brett Favre?on the flip side?the Packers Defense is a work in progress and a unit that gave up 361 yards to a Bears offense that isn?t considered to be one of the leagues better units?this week the Packers face a seasoned QB in Drew Brees and the Saints double headed backfield monster of Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush?I don?t see how the Packers Defensive unit will have an answer for Reggie Bush and the matchup problem that he creates?also?the Packers special teams unit is poor and they too will be overmatched by a solid Saints special team unit that also features Mr. Bush?all in all?this line is a bargain at this time and I believe the oddsmakers are still giving Brett Favre too much respect and they are making too much of the fact that the Packers pounded the Saints 52-3 in GB last season?that game was a sandwich for the Saints in which they were coming off of their first real home game win over the Bills and were facing their arch-rival the Falcons the following week?that Saints team last season was also hindered by the effects of Hurricane Katrina?the Packers team that the Saints faced last season was a much better unit?the only negative that I can come up with regarding the Saints is the fact that they could be overlooking this game for their home opener back in the Dome against the Falcons the following week?but?I think the fact that the Saints are a much better team at this time? coupled with the fact that they have better leadership at the QB position and they have rid their team of the players that brought this team down last season?combined with the fact that they were humiliated by the Packers last year has me convinced that the better team laying ?0? points will get the job done on the road.

New Orleans 27 Green Bay 17

:firing:

 

[FirstnGoal]

The line has already climbed to Saints -2!

 

[amich1]

i'm playing over 38 in this game. Favre hung 51 points on essentially the same saints D last yr. The saints CB's cannot even be compared to the bears db's. Saints D getting too much credit for shutting down the pathetic browns offense & gb' O is undervalued b/c they hung a 0 on bear's D. both these defenses stink.

 

[FirstnGoal]

i'm playing over 38 in this game. Favre hung 51 points on essentially the same saints D last yr. The saints CB's cannot even be compared to the bears db's. Saints D getting too much credit for shutting down the pathetic browns offense & gb' O is undervalued b/c they hung a 0 on bear's D. both these defenses stink.

First off...be careful playing the Over in this game because:

Saints have played UNDER in 17 of their last 25 games.

Packers have played UNDER in 8 out of their last 10 on grass and have playedn UNDER in 9 out of their lats 12 overall.

Secondly..It's the Saints D-Line I was talking about in my writeup not their DB's!!:shrug:

Thirdly...The Packers offense isn't undervalued because the Packers don't have an offense at this time! :mj07:

Last but not least...Favre didn't hang 51 on the Saints last season the Saints offense ie- Aaron Brooks (yes the same Aaron Brooks that stunk up the field for the Raiders on MNF) self destructed in that game last season...the Saints offense turned the ball over 5 times and 2 of the Packers scores came on interception returns by their defense...the Packers outgained the Saints 309 - 254 in total yards in that game which isn't a lopsided total for such a lopsided score.

 

[FirstnGoal]

Adding this 3 game teaser for a second big play for this week.


Chargers -1.5?This is a colossal early season mismatch between tow teams headed in the opposite direction?the Titans have to travel out west after dropping their home opener to the hapless Jets and must face a solid Chargers team with all 3 halfbacks (Chris Brown, Travis Henry and LenDale White) listed as questionable at this time?the only positive for the Titans in this one is they are catching the Chargers coming off of MNF against one of their rivals in the Raiders?however?this is the Chargers home opener!?one HUGE trend that also applies to this game is ?play against an away dog (Tennessee) that is an underdog of 10 points or more when coming off of an ATS home loss as a 3 point favorite or less if this weeks opponent (Chargers) is coming home from playing on the road..This system is a whopping 15-2 ATS since 1989!....Chargers in a rout!
San Diego 27 Tennessee 9

Broncos -0.5??The line in this game is so big because the Chiefs team that the Broncos will be facing on Sunday isn?t close to the one that they have faced in the past?the Chiefs will have Damon Huard at QB playing behind a patchwork offensive line?also Huard?s only real target is the ancient wonder Tony Gonzalez because the Chiefs receiving core is one of the worst units in the league...on the flip side the Broncos beat themselves last week as Jake Plummer and his crew turned the ball over 5 times in their road loss to the Rams?however?the Bronco started out the season in similar fashion in ?05 when they lost to the Dolphins on the road in Miami?I feel the Chiefs Defense has improved since last season but their offense will bring this team down this year?add to that the fact that the Broncos are a whopping 12-3-3 ATS against the AFC West and 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games in week #2?they have also dominated the Chiefs at Home over the years winning 4 straight in Denver by an average score of 14.7 pts a game?in this teaser you only need the Broncos to win the game!
Denver 24 Kansas City 16

Ravens -1.5?The Ravens will be playing their Home opener against a Raiders team that is coming off of a MNF game against a heated rival and a team that is clearly in turmoil at this time?all the progress that the Raiders seemed to make in preseason was lost in Monday night?s shellacking at the hands of the Chargers?this week the Raiders will have a shaken Aaron Brooks starting behind Center playing behind a Raiders O-Line that was terrible last week?and yes?he must face a Ravens Defense that went out on the road and pitched a shutout last week and a unit that I feel is one of the top 5 in football at this time?Oakland in 3-13 ATS in their last 16 against a team with a winning record and 8-28-1 ATS in their last 37 versus the AFC?the Ravens are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 as a home favorite of -10.5 or more?I give the Raiders NO Chance of hanging in this one.
Baltimore 23 Oakland 6

:firing:

 

[BuffaloBill]

Why not put the Colts in there?

No way the Texans have a chance.

The Texans can hang with the Colts for a little while, but no way they get within a touchdown.

 

[FirstnGoal]

Why not put the Colts in there?

No way the Texans have a chance.

The Texans can hang with the Colts for a little while, but no way they get within a touchdown.

I do like the Colts in a 3 game 10 pointer although 'm just a bit concerned with the Colts coming off of a BIG emotional road win over the Giants in the Manning Bowl...however...I like the 3 teams that I have in there better than the Colts at this time for all the reasons explained in my writeup.

 

[FirstnGoal]

I'm adding this 2 game teaser for a small play:

2 Game 6.5 pt teaser
Miami -0.5 and Chicago -2.5

Miami Dolphins -0.5 over Buffalo?The Fins have had 3 extras days to prepare for this one coming off of their Thursday opener and will be facing a Bills team that was thrown a curve-ball by management this week when they placed Safety Troy Vincent on IR ending his season?some of the Bills veterans questioned the move because it spells REBUILDING to them?uh?yea!...plus?Dolphins OC Mike Mularkey would like to stick it to his former team...a dogfight with the fish on top at the end.
Miami 24 Buffalo 17

Chicago Bears -2.5?The key is to get this one under -3 whether you use a 6 or 6.5 pt teaser on it?the Bears swept the Lions last season with the game in Detroit being a close one decided in OT on a Bears INT return while the one in Chicago was a classic 38-6 blowout?I feel this one may not be a blowout because the Lions Defense was outstanding against the Seahawks last week but as I also stated last week in my write-up the Lions offense is a WIP?add to that the fact that this is the Bears Home opener and Lions WR Roy Williams ran his mouth guaranteeing a ?W??and for you Trend fans?how about this = A home favorite of 7+ (Bears) off a 21+ ATS win as an away favorite of 7 or less playing an opponent that was a Dog last week (Detroit) is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 situations? AND? and away Dog of 7+ (Lions) coming off of an ATS win as a home Dog (Lions) when facing an opponent that won by at least 7 points over the spread (Bears) in the previous week as an away favorite is just 1-15 ATS in the last 16 situations?all in all?those two trends combined are 27-3 working in the Bears favor?I?m not sure if they will cover?but?I do think they will come out on top by at least 3!
Chicago 23 Detroit 16

 

[Old School]

SUPERIOR WORK...
I look forward to your insight each and every week...

doing this kind of research is so time consuming.

Many thanks for taking the time to do so..


BEST OF LUCK TO YOU SIR

 

[MrChristo]

how about this = A home favorite of 7+ (Bears) off a 21+ ATS win as an away favorite of 7 or less playing an opponent that was a Dog last week (Detroit) is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 situations… AND… and away Dog of 7+ (Lions) coming off of an ATS win as a home Dog (Lions) when facing an opponent that won by at least 7 points over the spread (Bears) in the previous week as an away favorite is just 1-15 ATS in the last 16 situations…all in all…those two trends combined are 27-3 working in the Bears favor…I’m not sure if they will cover…but…I do think they will come out on top by at least 3!

It's actually 25-3, because there are two common games in those trends...but anyaway...:SIB

 

[ldabdou]

i'm playing over 38 in this game. Favre hung 51 points on essentially the same saints D last yr. The saints CB's cannot even be compared to the bears db's. Saints D getting too much credit for shutting down the pathetic browns offense & gb' O is undervalued b/c they hung a 0 on bear's D. both these defenses stink.

I'm there

 

[FirstnGoal]

Another super profitable week as both BIG Plays won!


2006 NFL Regular season breakdown:

BIG Plays 3-0!

Medium size plays: 1-1

small size plays: 1-2

(Teasers 2-1, Sides 3-2)

Passing on tonight's game!