alabama / arkansas total..??

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

well dammit if it didn't drop from 39.5 to 37.5.....

i may lay off this total as my gut feeling is that 37.5 is too darn low.

Under is 7-1 in ALAB last 8 games as an underdog.
Under is 7-1 in ALAB last 8 conference games.

* Over is 6-2 in ARK last 8 home games.
* Under is 19-9 in ARK last 28 games as a favorite.

last 5 games...

9/24/05 ARK 13 - ALAB 24
9/25/04 ALAB 10 - ARK 27
9/27/03 ARK 34 - ALAB 31
9/28/02 ALAB 30 - ARK 12
9/22/01 ARK 10 - ALAB 31

any thoughts?

i've got one last website to check out, and they won't have their predictions until thursday or friday....i usually cross reference my numbers with these guys and they have been bang on in their two SEC totals with mine the last 2 weeks.

 

[taoist]

...with the rule changes and the fact that you're looking at 2 SEC teams that play smash mouth football...and actually know what "defense" is.... This one will be determined by turnovers...when and where. In other words, I wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot pole. LOL :mj07: :mj07:


...best of luck this week, Cris. Hope all is well with you and yours north of the border.

 

[Juu3]

very good advice from taoist-

Having watched this match up most of my life I will agree with the turnover factor. You also have to first year QB's playing in their first big SEC game, Vandy wasn't big, and your D's are going to match up with a little lean towards Bama. Running game has got to go to Bama but there will be huge chunks of yards for McFaggit to pick up.

they're pretty close now that its 37.5
20-17 the final -just my take

one more thing, Parker is a good qb but as always we'll be looking to beat them with the run in the first half. also, Mustain may have some nice yards because our saftey #20 sucks, I don't know who he is, I don't want to take the time to find out and hopefully he'll be scrubbed if he doesn't make a few big plays. AND THEY'LL BE THERE

 

[Bama6895]

I think this games goes under but with this line it may be pretty close.

Alabama's offense has struggled scoring points. Watching the games we have done a decent job of moving the ball but have continued our problem from last year which is actually scoring TDs in the red zone. Not to mention, the OL is having problems run blocking (last year that was not a problem, as it was pass blocking that was the huge issue) and Ken Darby has been off his game for 2 weeks now. The defense has looked solid, thankfully. Alabama did put up 40 last week but that was against ULM. This week is key because it is John Parker Wilson's 1st ever road start.

Arkansas is also a run 1st time with Jones and McFadden. You also have a true frosh at QB. Arkansas has a pretty decent defense.

When you take it all together, I think you will see both teams run the ball and then run it some more. Alabama has had better success passing this year (JPW has looked pretty good) but a problem actually scoring TDs. Alabama puts a premium on ball control and leads the league in TOP. Therefore I think this will be a low scoring game where the clock is always running because there won't be a ton of balls in the air.

I am leaning to betting this under. I certainly am not going to bet over. If I don't pull the trigger on the under, then I am staying away and will just watch the game.

BTW, that safety is Marcus Carter who is the weak link in our secondary.

 

[Punch23]

looks like under may be a best bet. Not to credit either of the defenes thus far, more of a lack of offense on both sides of the ball.

that 2001 game also included a pick 6 with 30 seconds left in the game so the score may be a little deceiving...

good luck!

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

thanks for all the advice, guys....if i have to pick my brain as much as I have for this pick, then that's a sign to lay off.

as much as I love betting on certain teams for the under in SEC games....this one is TOO close for any margin of error....it's a no play for me.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

this just came to me...think i'll watch the first half of the game and then put a little something on the UNDER 2nd half if they have something like a 6-3 type game....