Week 4

ajoytoy

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4-9 (-5.41) last week:mad:

YTD: 17-18 (-2.09)

Faves: 8-10
Dogs: 7-7
Parlays/Teasers: 2-1
ACC Plays: 5-3
Pool Plays: 5-7
Best Bets: 1-2


Pretty bad week last week...pool plays killed me getting the big old egg...did as good as the Pack did against S. Miss...that was a sad showing looking at the box score...they are in a heap of trouble this year...Clemson did a great job of finishing strong down in Tallahassee...congrats Tigers Alum...nice rebound W after the loss up in Boston....

Here are my leans early on this week...i will not make the mistake of going ahead and playing most of my leans thinking I was getting lines before they rose:nono: ...any info or critique is welcome...gl to all this weekend and I need to rebound nicely this weekend:142smilie

UNC
UNC/Tigers Over 48
Zona +21.5
Minnesota
NCSU...I know, but the ATS for the Pack as home dogs is pretty high...hoping the line will jump up a little bit:shrug:
Va Tech
Penn St.
Bama
Houston
Wisconsin
Arizona St.
Washington
Miss. St.
Utah
Boise St
 
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jharris

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Like alot of your picks. One question though. Why do you like UNC? As a Clemson alum, i judge with my heart a little too much at times, but i think the Tigers are far superior to UNC. I did not see any of the Furman game this past wkd, but some of my freinds from the Greenville area think the Paladins could beat some DI teams. I know Clemson has a tendency to have letdowns after a big win - see WF and Duke- but i think this years team is a little different, although if a couple of calls had gone the other way Sat nite we'd be sitting at 1-2. Offensively we should score plenty of points, what should have been 31 points at FSU Saturday minus the feild goal f-ups, and the Def seems to play well at times. Also playing at home after a couple weeks on the road i look for Death Valley to be loud. Saying all that i think Clem looks like the better play. Anyhoo, just a couple of opinions from this side of the fence. Your thoughts? Thanks in advance.
 

ajoytoy

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AJT

Like alot of your picks. One question though. Why do you like UNC? As a Clemson alum, i judge with my heart a little too much at times, but i think the Tigers are far superior to UNC. I did not see any of the Furman game this past wkd, but some of my freinds from the Greenville area think the Paladins could beat some DI teams. I know Clemson has a tendency to have letdowns after a big win - see WF and Duke- but i think this years team is a little different, although if a couple of calls had gone the other way Sat nite we'd be sitting at 1-2. Offensively we should score plenty of points, what should have been 31 points at FSU Saturday minus the feild goal f-ups, and the Def seems to play well at times. Also playing at home after a couple weeks on the road i look for Death Valley to be loud. Saying all that i think Clem looks like the better play. Anyhoo, just a couple of opinions from this side of the fence. Your thoughts? Thanks in advance.
great points and that is exactly why i post my leans at least...i was leaning UNC plus points, but liked the over more (now the under will hit)....i know you know more about the Tigers...and someine might chime in that knows more than me about the Heels...Personally I do thik Heels can keep it relatively close in a high scoring affair...maybe a backdoor?...thanks for the feedback and gl this week
 

Irish

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GL Toy
Like the plays leaning toward a few of them myself.

Cheers
Irish
 

treynolds

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I was kind of thinking unc because clemson always has a big letdown after a big win. Why would this be any different? I think the over looks like a good play also
minny/purdue game, the line seems screwy i like minny but i think im going to stay away. I guess i just dont know enough about purdue right now
I think wisconsin is a good bet this weekend too
good luck
 
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wufdude

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I tend to think Clemson rolls Carolina big this weekend. The Heels defense is miserable. However, I do think the best play in that game is the over. Still can't figure out why it's that low.

Any thoughts on the Tech/UVA game? I'm really leaning towards the under. I know it's low but man, Virginia is just atrocious and I honestly seeing them only getting 1 TD, if that.

Also, I believe I'd throw our home dog trend out the window this weekend. Hopefully Evans will give us a spark but no way is he ready to start. Hope I'm wrong but I see a game similar to last years Clemson and BC games. Still will be nice to be there under the lights...
 
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ajoytoy

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I tend to think Clemson rolls Carolina big this weekend. The Heels defense is miserable. However, I do think the best play in that game is the over. Still can't figure out why it's that low.

Any thoughts on the Tech/UVA game? I'm really leaning towards the under. I know it's low but man, Virginia is just atrocious and I honestly seeing them only getting 1 TD, if that.

Also, I believe I'd throw our home dog trend out the window this weekend. Hopefully Evans will give us a spark but no way is he ready to start. Hope I'm wrong but I see a game similar to last years Clemson and BC games. Still will be nice to be there under the lights...
I still like that Over...i cant figure why it is on the low side as well...i have no idea on the Cavs/Jackets game on thursday night...39 is low and i am guessing that they are trying to get people on the over...think the Under is best play, but not touching it...Johnson should get 2 Td's minimum against that D...just worried about junk points...Im in Detroit this weekend, so I dont even know if I will be able to see this weeks game...glad i didnt get season tickets now...lol..your probably right that we will get killed this weekend...I'm still debating if i want to spend more $$ on this team:mj07:

gl on your plays dude
 

johnnyb.

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noticed your going against both L.A. schools, both road favs. i can see both not covering but wouldn't wanna put my good cash on arizona (struggled again last saturday vs. d2 team) maybe huskies.
good luck!
 

mw

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I tend to think Clemson rolls Carolina big this weekend. The Heels defense is miserable. However, I do think the best play in that game is the over. Still can't figure out why it's that low.

Well, UNC's defense has played one good game this year, and it was their one game against a good conference opponent. UNC shut down VPI pretty well in that 35-10 loss, with 3 VPI touchdowns coming off a total of one yard of offense. UNC is a Jekyll-and-Hyde team.

And I'm saying this as a Clemson fan who watched the Furman game. I'm playing the over, but *cautiously*.
 

mw

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Plays this week (got most of these numbers Sunday night):

UVA under 40
UVA 1H under 20
Minnesota over 59.5
VPI under 44.5
Syracuse under 42.5
UGA under 37 -120 (waited too long on that one - had to buy onto 37)
Clemson over 47
Minnesota -3
UVA +17

Maybe Bama under 38 and Wyoming under 51

Played Wake +3, but hedged with Ole Miss -2.5 because of injuries to Andrews and the LT. I still like my teasers with Wake +10 (teased with Bama, VPI, UVA, and Syr unders).

Looking at Penn State, Notre Dame, and maybe UConn, Miami Oh, and Miss State. Don't like many sides this week.

Two losses on the Woofers is too many for me, and I won't try it again this week -- but we sure need y'all to give BC that first L in the division.
 
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ajoytoy

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noticed your going against both L.A. schools, both road favs. i can see both not covering but wouldn't wanna put my good cash on arizona (struggled again last saturday vs. d2 team) maybe huskies.
good luck!

thx for the info JB...was leaning to Wash...gl this weekend
 

ajoytoy

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Plays this week (got most of these numbers Sunday night):

UVA under 40
UVA 1H under 20
Minnesota over 59.5
VPI under 44.5
Syracuse under 42.5
UGA under 37 -120 (waited too long on that one - had to buy onto 37)
Clemson over 47
Minnesota -3
UVA +17

Maybe Bama under 38 and Wyoming under 51

Played Wake +3, but hedged with Ole Miss -2.5 because of injuries to Andrews and the LT. I still like my teasers with Wake +10 (teased with Bama, VPI, UVA, and Syr unders).

Looking at Penn State, Notre Dame, and maybe UConn, Miami Oh, and Miss State. Don't like many sides this week.

Two losses on the Woofers is too many for me, and I won't try it again this week -- but we sure need y'all to give BC that first L in the division.

Plays look good...definitely on Minny and will probably play the over as well...gl this week and thanks for posting your plays...might tease a few of those totals you have
 

ajoytoy

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Gary Hahn's Scouting Report: Boston College

Gary Hahn's Scouting Report: Boston College

Courtesy: NC State

By Gary Hahn

NC STATE (1-2, 0-0) vs. No. 20 BOSTON COLLEGE (3-0, 1-0)



DATE: Saturday, September 23, 2006



TIME: Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. (EDT) at Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh, NC (57,583)



RADIO: Wolfpack Sports Network: 7:00 p.m. (EDT)



TELEVISION: espn2



OPPONENT?Boston College had to wait a few minutes before celebrating its second straight overtime victory at Alumni Stadium.

Matt Ryan threw a touchdown pass to Tony Gonzalez on the first play of the second overtime period Saturday. Then the Eagles had to wait for a replay review to verify Jamie Silva?s game-ending interception before escaping with a 30-23 victory over BYU.

It was the second consecutive double-overtime game for Boston College and it was also a game where Ryan and BC kicker Ryan Ohliger atoned for mistakes. Ryan was picked off twice in regulation and Ohliger missed two extra points and a field goal.

In the first overtime, both teams missed field goals before Ryan?s touchdown pass and Ohliger?s PAT kick gave BC the lead.

Looking to send the game into a third OT, BYU drove to the 14 before Cougar?s quarterback John Beck threw a pass that was tipped by BC linebacker Robert Francois. Silva dove for the loose ball, trying to get his fingers under it before it made contact with the ground. The Eagles thought they?d won the game and began to celebrate.

However, officials ruled the pass incomplete and sent the BC players back to the bench. Following a replay delay of several minutes, referee Terry Leyden ruled that the pass was intercepted sending the Eagles into a full-blown celebration.

Beck completed 38-of-59 passes for 436 yards and a touchdown, but was intercepted twice. The BC defense was on the field for 90 plays and gave up 547 yards.

Ryan was 29-for-48 for 356 yards and two touchdowns, but he opened the door for a BYU victory when Kelly Poppinga picked him off with 20 seconds left in regulation. Beck took advantage by throwing an 18-yard pass to Daniel Coats at the BC 34. That set up a 51-yard field goal attempt by Jared McLaughlin, but the kick was short and left with 8 seconds to play.

BC?s offense has been pretty impressive over the first three games, including four overtime periods. The Eagles lead the ACC in total offense. They?re averaging 400 yards and 31.7 points, but only 103 rushing yards a game. They throw nearly 59 percent of the time and have allowed only 2 sacks.

On third down, BC is converting 42 percent of its opportunities, third best in the ACC behind Clemson and North Carolina.

As usual, BC is big up front. The Eagles starting offensive line averages 306 pounds and is anchored by three, third-year starters in redshirt senior tackle James Marten (6-7, 307), redshirt junior tackle Gosder Cherilus (6-7, 318) and redshirt senior guard Josh Beekman (6-1, 321).

Ryan, this week?s ACC Offensive Back of the Week and total offense leader, has completed 62 percent of his passes for 6 touchdowns and 297 yards a game with only two interceptions. His favorite receivers are redshirt junior Kevin Challenger (16 catches, 2 TDs), Gonzalez, a redshirt senior (15 catches, 3 TDs) and Robinson, a redshirt sophomore (10 catches). Reserve tight end, Ryan Purvis, is another option and averages 14 yards a catch.

Two veterans anchor the runningback position. L.V. Whitworth (5-11, 216) leads the team with 191 rushing yards (4.4 ypc.) and a touchdown while Andre Callender (5-11, 204) is next with 136 yards (4.1 ypc.). The two redshirt juniors are also good pass receivers, combining for 17 catches.

Defensively, Boston College is allowing more points (26.7) and yards (464) per game than head coach Tom O?Brien would like. The Eagles surrender an average of 341 yards passing a game, but opponents have thrown for only 4 touchdowns.

Second-year starters, B.J Raji (6-1, 340, Jr.) and redshirt junior end Nick Larkin (6-4, 250) anchor the BC front four. Larkin averages nearly 6 stops a game and is tied for the team lead with 4 tackles for loss.

Middle linebacker Jolonn Dunbar (6-0, 233) is the team?s leading tackler. The redshirt junior is averaging 8.3 stops a game in his first year as a starter. Redshirt junior Tyronne Pruitt (5-11, 220) is also a first-year starter at outside linebacker.

The other outside linebacker, Brian Toal, a third-year starter, is the leader of the defense. The junior has been hampered lately with a shoulder injury, but is one of the best defenders in the ACC. He also plays fullback in short-yardage situations and has 8 career touchdowns, including two this season. Due to Toal?s shoulder injury, Francois? playing time has increased and he?s made the most of it with 21 tackles.

In the secondary, there is experience at safety. Both Silva (5-11, 208) and DeJuan Tribble (5-9, 190) are redshirt juniors and second-year starters. Both have recorded an interception this season and Tribble has broken up a team-leading five passes. Silva is the team?s No.2 tackler. The corners, Paul Anderson (6-1, 210, So) and redshirt senior Larry Anam (5-11, 196) are first year starters.

The Eagles have one of the most exciting kick returners in the ACC in Jeff Smith. The true freshman recorded 213 yards against Clemson, including a 96-yard kickoff return for a touchdown. He?s averaging 36.3 yards a return which is No. 3 nationally. Tribble is the BC punt returner (4.3) and also returns kicks (21.3).

Long snapper Jack Geiser is a true freshman, but punter Johnny Ayers and Ohliger are veterans. Ayers is a steady, third-year starter who is averaging 39.9 yards a punt. Ohliger has been inconsistent during his career, but has made 4-of-7 field goal attempts this season with a long of 44-yards.

NOTES: Saturday?s game will mark only the second meeting between the Wolfpack and Eagles. BC won 30-10 at Chestnut Hill last season and held State?s Andre Brown and Tony Baker to a combined 30-yards rushing...BC is averaging nearly 300 passing yards a game, the best mark in the ACC...NC State is the only ACC team not to allow a touchdown pass this season...The Wolfpack is No.2 in the ACC in sacks with 9...Chuck Amato is 3-3 in ACC openers, but the Pack has dropped two of the last three...State is last in the ACC in turnover margin (-7) and has lost the football an ACC-leading 10 times...Opponents have scored 27 points off Wolfpack turnovers, accounting for 40.3 percent of the total points allowed by NC State this season...Andre Brown needs 150 rushing yards for 1,000 in his career...The Pack was flagged for 10 penalties for 82 yards last week in the loss at Southern Miss...The Golden Eagles ran for 261 yards marking only the fourth time in the last 10 games that an opponent rushed for more than 100 yards against the NC State defense...Wolfpack kicker, John Deraney, has never missed an extra point kick in his college career (69-69) and drilled a career-long 54 yard field goal at Southern Miss... Wolfpack linebacker, Pat Lowry, is averaging 9.7 tackles a game, second in the ACC...Defensive end, Raymond Brooks, is No.2 in the ACC in tackles for loss (5)...In 10 of the Pack?s 14 home losses under Chuck Amato, the score was decided by single digits...BC quarterback, Matt Ryan, leads the ACC in total offense (290 ypg.)...Redshirt sophomore Daniel Evans will start his first college game at quarterback for the Wolfpack. He was 11-8-1 passing for 97 yards and a touchdown at Southern Miss in relief of Marcus Stone.

INJURIES--NC State: C Luke Lathan-Questionable, concussion; CB A.J. Davis-Questionable, hamstring; WR Darrell Blackman, Doubtful, MCL sprain. Boston College ?DT Ron Brace-Probable, concussion; LB Brian Toal, Questionable, shoulder
 

ajoytoy

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Thursday Play:

UVA/GT Under 40 (-108)

Saturday Plays:
Houston -1 (+100)
Utah -6.5 (-109)
Syracuse -6.5 (-110)
Minnesota -2.5 (-108)
UNC/Clem Over 48 (-106)
Wisconsin +14 (-108)
Miss. St +10 (-110)
Boise St. -15 (-110)
NCSU +7 (-110)
Alabama +2.5 (-108)
Washington +3.5 (-108)
Rice +30.5 (-110)

thats my bakers dozen

glta
 

ajoytoy

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1-0 early:142smilie

pressing early with the other Wolfpack

-7 (-105)

glta

have a great weekend all....
 
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