Record: [9-6]
Profit/Loss: +2,400
CAROLINA -3
Risking $1,100 to win $1,000
*Carolina has more problems than Smith's injury. The Panthers' defense ranks 28th in yards allowed per game (375), 31st in rushing yards allowed per game (196). Carolina's offensive line has 4 new faces this year, which explains why the Panthers have been unable to run the ball after two weeks. Carolina is averaging 4 yards per carry, and rookie Williams appears to have replaced Foster as the feature back. Williams is definitely outperforming him. Delhomme has also been under heavy pressure in the pocket. Carolina is playing without starting linebacker Witherspoon, and Morgan missed last week's game with a concussion. He is currently listed as questionable. Is it any secret why the Panthers have been unable to stop the run? Now, the secondary is banged up. Safety Williams and DB Lucas are both day-to-day. Based on what I've read so far, Smith will play on Sunday, and he should help improve the Panthers' #31 ranking in passing yards per attempt (5.1). I would be surprised if Smith goes off though. The guy hasn't played since last year's NFC Championship game.
*The Bucs are 13-3-1 ATS last 17 as a home dog! This trend really makes me want to take Tampa. However, Tampa is 6-11 straight up the last 3 years when the line is +3 to -3. Carolina is 13-4 straight up the last 3 years when the line is +3 to -3! This trend really makes me want to take Carolina.
*The public is all over Carolina (75%). I'm assuming this is due to Smith's likely return, coupled with the thinking that Tampa is more likely to begin the season 0-3. After all, Carolina was picked by many so-called experts to go to the Super Bowl.
In the end, I have decided to go with Carolina. Even if Smith is out there on Sunday as a decoy, Tampa's defense must gameplan for him. Smith's presence should open things up for Delhomme, KJ, Carter and the rest of the passing offense. As bad as Carolina has been against the run (196 per game), Tampa has been worse (204.5 per game). As bad as Carolina has been at running the football (86 yards per game), Tampa has been worse (33 yards per game). Let me repeat that, 33 yards per game!!! So, the Bucs are not likely to take advantage of Carolina's main weakness. Not to mention, Tampa has scored a grand total of 3 points in two games! When it comes down to it, I would rather put my money on Delhomme than Simms. The pressure this week will fall squarely on these two quarterbacks' shoulders, and I think the veteran Delhomme will handle it better. The Panthers have won 3 straight in Tampa, so they come into this game with confidence that they can get it done.
Profit/Loss: +2,400
CAROLINA -3
Risking $1,100 to win $1,000
*Carolina has more problems than Smith's injury. The Panthers' defense ranks 28th in yards allowed per game (375), 31st in rushing yards allowed per game (196). Carolina's offensive line has 4 new faces this year, which explains why the Panthers have been unable to run the ball after two weeks. Carolina is averaging 4 yards per carry, and rookie Williams appears to have replaced Foster as the feature back. Williams is definitely outperforming him. Delhomme has also been under heavy pressure in the pocket. Carolina is playing without starting linebacker Witherspoon, and Morgan missed last week's game with a concussion. He is currently listed as questionable. Is it any secret why the Panthers have been unable to stop the run? Now, the secondary is banged up. Safety Williams and DB Lucas are both day-to-day. Based on what I've read so far, Smith will play on Sunday, and he should help improve the Panthers' #31 ranking in passing yards per attempt (5.1). I would be surprised if Smith goes off though. The guy hasn't played since last year's NFC Championship game.
*The Bucs are 13-3-1 ATS last 17 as a home dog! This trend really makes me want to take Tampa. However, Tampa is 6-11 straight up the last 3 years when the line is +3 to -3. Carolina is 13-4 straight up the last 3 years when the line is +3 to -3! This trend really makes me want to take Carolina.
*The public is all over Carolina (75%). I'm assuming this is due to Smith's likely return, coupled with the thinking that Tampa is more likely to begin the season 0-3. After all, Carolina was picked by many so-called experts to go to the Super Bowl.
In the end, I have decided to go with Carolina. Even if Smith is out there on Sunday as a decoy, Tampa's defense must gameplan for him. Smith's presence should open things up for Delhomme, KJ, Carter and the rest of the passing offense. As bad as Carolina has been against the run (196 per game), Tampa has been worse (204.5 per game). As bad as Carolina has been at running the football (86 yards per game), Tampa has been worse (33 yards per game). Let me repeat that, 33 yards per game!!! So, the Bucs are not likely to take advantage of Carolina's main weakness. Not to mention, Tampa has scored a grand total of 3 points in two games! When it comes down to it, I would rather put my money on Delhomme than Simms. The pressure this week will fall squarely on these two quarterbacks' shoulders, and I think the veteran Delhomme will handle it better. The Panthers have won 3 straight in Tampa, so they come into this game with confidence that they can get it done.
