The Judge's Docket - NCAAF Week Four

[The Judge]

Louisville vs. Kansas State ? September 23rd, 12:10 EST
Most teams would be considered to be on their death bed after losing two Heisman candidates to injury so early in the season but the Cardinals still enter this game as two touchdown favorites over Kansas State.

Louisville stud RB Michael Bush?s season ended in their first game with broken leg but George Stripling and Kolby Smith have both stepped up to log 200 rushing yards apiece in the first three games averaging 7.2 and 5.6 yards per carry. This is a great example of how successful HC Petrino has been in his recruiting as this team is extremely deep at the skill positions. Louisville is ranked sixth in the nation in total offense at an astounding 564 yards per game.

In relief of injured Louisville QB Brohm last week, Hunter Cantwell stepped in and delivered with 113 yards passing (3 of 4) in the 4th quarter. Cantwell is not without experience running this offense as he started two games at the end of the 2005 season going 1-1 with the loss coming against Virginia Tech in the Gator Bowl and ended the year with a 138.7 quarterback rating. Not too shabby for a backup who completed 39 passes in 73 attempts for 640 yards, five touchdowns and four interceptions. Three of those interceptions came against the No. 1 ranked Hokie defense yet Cantwell was still able to finish with 216 yards passing in the Gator Bowl and the Cardinals finished that game with 24 points which was the send most allowed by VA Tech all year.

Kansas State has not played anyone to this point yet QB Dylan Meier has not looked like he is comfortable leading the Wildcat offense. His passing numbers after three games are very average and he is not getting much help from the running game which has managed only 219 yards against very weak competition. I believe that a lot of the blame for the inconsistency falls on the shoulders of the offensive line which is sure to be outmatched in this game.

Louisville is coming off of a huge win over Miami and the team?s confidence has to be at an all time high. Too many horses for the Wildcats to contain today as I see Louisville winning this one by 24 points.
The Verdict: Louisville -13.5 (3 Units)



Late post as I couldn't log on to the site earlier. Back with more later as I am playing catch-up on my research this morning after a hectic work week.

 

[IntenseOperator]

GL Judge

 

[The Judge]

Tulsa vs. Navy ? September 23rd, 1:30 EST
Big play on Navy last week was set up based on a mismatch with a Stanford team that couldn?t defend against the run but I don?t see Tulsa being as porous a defense as the Cardinal. The Golden Hurricane has played Rice for the past three seasons when the Owls were running the closest thing to the Middie?s triple option, winning each of those matchups. Tulsa runs a 3-3-5 defensive scheme which necessarily means that the defensive backs are very involved in protecting against the run. The offensive line is essentially a collection of three Nose Guards and the linebacking crew are all three potential candidates for the CUSA All Conference team.

Navy?s pass defense is not up to the challenge that Tulsa presents having given up 740 yards through the air in their first three games. Hurricane QB Paul Smith had a very nice sophomore season last year passing for 2,847 yards, 20 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions. In 2006 he already has thrown for 677 yards with 6 TD?s and 3 interceptions and is looking better each week.

Navy?s big road win last week against a Pac 10 school meant a lot to the Midshipmen and there is a very real possibility of a letdown against a less respected CUSA program.
The Verdict: Tulsa +4? (3 Units)

 

[Blazer]

gl .


Thanks Judge:SIB

 

[The Judge]

Arizona State vs. California ? September 23rd, 3:30 EST
After a very disappointing performance in their opener at Tennessee, Cal has rebounded very well by returning home and dominating their next two opponents. Now they play their third game in a row on their home field and it looks like the Bears are warming up to the potential that so many preseason observers had expected.

Two weeks ago, Cal QB Nate Longshore came into the game against Minnesota looking like his starting job was in jeopardy but since then he has completed 37 of 54 passes for 525 yards, 6 touchdowns and just one interception. Zona State?s defense thus far has been concentrated on pressuring the quarterback which frequently leaves the cornerbacks in man coverage. This blitz happy approach has been successful and has the Sun Devils leading the nation with 17 sacks but those results have not been against the kind of talent that California possesses and you can be sure that Tedford will have Longshore looking for long ball opportunities. Let?s not forget that Cal also has an exceptional running game with RB Marshawn Lynch logging 325 yards (7.2 ypc) and three rushing touchdowns so far this season.

The Sun Devils have averaged 36 points this season despite turning the ball over 8 times in three games and mistakes like that today are not likely to be overcome so easily. This is one of the worst road teams in the country and although QB Rudy Carpenter led the nation in passer rating last year and has thrown for 842 yards and 9 touchdowns this year, he has also thrown four interceptions which is two more than he threw in all of 2005. By the way, although Carpenter leads the Pac 10 in passing yardage, California?s passing total is higher at 881 yards with backup QB Joe Ayoob contributing 205 of those.
The Verdict: California -8 (3 Units)

 

[pt1gard]

gl on Bears, my fave play of the week ... bought it down to 6.5 right away ... Koetner is 0-10 in forays into the sunshine state in his career

 

[The Judge]

UTEP vs. New Mexico ? September 23rd, 5:00 EST
Backdoor cover by the Lobos last week with 25 seconds remaining cost me a huge day but I?m going against them again as their yardage was actually doubled by Missouri and the cover came against a prevent defense with the game well in hand.

The Miners have played well in two games against San Diego State and Texas Tech. Two weeks ago, UTEP took Tech to overtime only to lose on a field goal kick that bounced in off the goal post. Now they are well rested as they travel to Albuquerque to take on a a regional rival.

Lobo HC Rocky Long has done well at New Mexico but this 2006 squad is playing uncharacteristically poorly so far. The loss in their home opener to Portland State can not be glossed over and even though they bounced back with a six point win over New Mexico State the following week, their performance against the Tigers last Saturday produced just 201 yards of offense. Although the Lobos were on the receiving end of three turnovers, they were only able to score three points on those opportunities.

Mike Price has done an amazing job in El Paso. He has the team believing in themselves which led to several efforts last season in which the Miners played above their apparent ability and you can be sure that he will have these guys motivated with two weeks to prepare. Miner QB Jordan Palmer is certainly prone to make bad decisions as indicated by his six interceptions this year but I don?t think that the Lobo secondary is not equipped to keep up with UTEP?s pass oriented offense.
The Verdict: UTEP -9 (2 Units)

 

[bjfinste]

Judge, not only was the Missouri loss a prevent defense-induced backdoor, but prior to that NM's only TD came off a stupid throw by Chase that was returned for a score, and the Tigers turned it over TWICE inside the New Mexico 4-yard line. I followed it from the start, and that game really shouldn't have been close at ALL. I'm on UTEP, as well.

 

[pt1gard]

great day thus far Judge

cal up 35-7

gl on utep and thanx for your insightful posts!

take care
gregg

 

[The Judge]

North Texas vs. Akron ? September 23rd, 6:00 EST
After three tough road games to open the season against Penn State, North Carolina and Central Michigan, the Zips finally get their home opener and it couldn?t be against much worse of a team than North Texas who is averaging just 11 points per game in 2006 including a 24 point performance against SMU. Mean Green RB Jamario Thomas led the nation in rushing in 2005 but this year is averaging just 53 yards and 3.1 yards a carry. Not good news considering that North Texas relies heavily on their running game and QB Woody Wilson has only passed for a total of 201 yards.

Akron QB Luke Getsy has put up some pretty big passing numbers but has been interception prone. That should not be a problem this week against a very young and inexperienced North Texas secondary which has given up 585 yards passing and 7 touchdowns this season. Despite outgaining the Central Michigan last week by 145 yards, the Zips lost that game by a score of 24-21 and will be looking to build their confidence as they begin their MAC Conference title next week and the Mean Green is just the team to help them in that regard. North Texas has lost their 11 road games since 2003 by an average of 37 points.
The Verdict: Akron -15 (3 Units)

 

[watrdogg]

Hell of a run your on Judge.:142hail:

 

[UT-Longhorn]

Hell of a run your on Judge.:142hail:

Amen.

 

[pt1gard]

well how many times has asu won in sunshine state under their mentor: 0-11 now ... people keep riding asu and always over rate them vs a decent squad and they get embarrassed... had big straight bet on cal and teased to wsu ...

nice job for all who believed in Bears

 

[Rcxslam]

nice hit Judge, pt1g....I had them also...but only because Patrick on that other site was going for #20, I've been tailing him for his last 3....

 

[The Judge]

3* - Louisville (-14) WINNER
3* - Tulsa (+4?) WINNER
3* - California (-8) WINNER
3* - Akron (-15) WINNER
2* - UTEP (-9) LOSER

4-1 on the day for +9.8 units

UTEP forgot to show up and cost me the sweep.

 

[PJ12]

Very Good Day :mj06:

 

[deportes]

Rcxslam, what other site is that? **overs.***?:com: