From a friend:
South Carolina's defense is rated reasonably well overall.
Rushing defense is horrible (101st), but as a whole, they are ranked 39th in total defense, and 13th in scoring defense.
Given that high ranking in scoring defense, you have to see who they've played, and what kind of offenses they've gone against. Here's the details:
Miss State - 111th ranked offense
UGA - 83rd ranked offense
Wofford - 1AA school, hard to compare
Fla International - 112th ranked offense
Average offense ranking - 102nd (not counting Wofford, which would make it worse).
Comparatively, AU has played offenses ranked 18, 26, 95, and 111.
AU has given up 24 pts this year, 14 of them to the 18th ranked offense, and 10 in 3 games against the others.
On the other side of the coin:
South Carolina's offense is ranked 58th.
AU has played defenses ranked 2, 47, 65, and 106. Other than the LSU game, this *sputtering* AU offense has put up 34+ on everyone else, and USC's defense fits right into the Everyone Else category.
Statistically, it should end up roughly as:
AU 35, USC 6.
You can factor in emotion, desire, and all that if you want. But it's going to take a lot of intangibles to overcome the talent difference between these two teams.
AU should win easily.
