plays & info for 10/1-10/2....

[AR182]

nflx.....................8-8........+5.80*
regular season......11-10.....+15.36*

so far my nfl record is the complete opposite of my ncaa record. while in college i have a pretty good winning %, i'm not hitting my larger bets & in the nfl my % is nothing great but am hitting my larger bets.

1st play this week....

o 45(120) indy/jets...

here are some things i read this week that may interest you...

the jets are 10-0 o/u since week #3 as a dog when facing a team that allows 4.5 ypc for the season.

indy is 7-0 o/u on the road vs. a non-divisional opponent when they have faced divisional opponenets in each of the previous 2 weeks.


good luck.

 

[AR182]

adding....

colts-7(130)...


i don't understand why many people like the jets today. yes they upset the bills last week, but they allowed 475 yards(150 yds. rushing & 328 yds. passing) offense while gaining only 256 yds.for themselves, including 74 rushing yards.here is something that i read..buffalo was the first home team in nfl history to lose a game in which it had players with at least 300 yards passing and 150 yards rushing.

the colts usually play well on the road....as a non-division road favorite of more than 1 point,indy is 11-0-1 ats since 2001,& since 2002 against opponents off a road underdog win,indy is 3-0 su/ats.

this game is very similar to last week's game between phil & s.f., where s.f. came home off an underdog win the week before.in fact non-monday home underdogs off an underdog win were 0-15 ATS since late 2004.....

4*atlanta-6(127)...

i'm looking for atlanta to bounce back from their humiliating mnf loss to n.o.last week where they scored only 3 points.i don't think the cards defense will be able to stop atlanta's running attack since they allow about 4.5 ypr, which is the 5th highest in the league.i also don't think the cards ol will be able to stop the atlanta pass rush from getting after warner, & when warner's rushed we all know what happens...turnovers.

a couple of trends & systems that support this play...

winning teams are 43-16-3 ats (73%) as home favorite of 3 points or more the week after scoring less than 7 points in a loss.


play against any nfl non-divisionl team with a 1-2 record if they lost su as a favorite in game 3....since 1980 the ats record is 40-21-1 (65,5%)...play against arizona & buffalo.


also atlanta has a bye next week....since 2002 favorites of more than 6 points that have a bye the following week are 18-1 ats (94.7%)....


good luck.

 

[BadAngel]

Good luck Ar.

 

[RexBudler]

gl to you AR, I think Atl bounces back also

 

[Irish]

GL AR
I like the plays, think ALT looks to lay the hammer down, but I can't lay 7 after seeing them play. Good luck today

Cheers
Irish

 

[DeadPrez]

gl AR

 

[gardenweasel]

g.l.,brother.....

btw...what do you think of the brownies?...with droughns coming back and winslow and the kid from michigan at wideout...along with a dangerous northcutt....

i think that,from what i`ve seen,the browns are a better club...and i`ve seen both play the ravens......i like frye.....

i don`t like any of oakland`s qb options....and i don`t like shell as a head coach...i`ll take crenel anyday....

i suspect that the brownies will upset a few applecarts this year.....

again,g.l.

 

[AR182]

thanks guys...

gw..i'm sorry but i have to take...


4*oakland+3(125)....

a few reasons why i like oak....

last week against balt. cleve rushed for 32 yards. since their return to the league, cleve. is 0-8 ats on the road the week after a loss in which they had fewer than 50 yards rushing.

winless teams coming off a bye are 32-21 ats over the last few years, including 15-6 ats if their opponent lost their most recent game.


good luck.

 

[AR182]

disappointed in the oakland push....

tonight i will take...

chi.-3(119)....

good luck.

 

[AR182]

not doing anything tonight.....

finished the week in the nfl going...

3-1....+5.40*

regular seasons record now is....14-11....+20.76*

good luck tonight with whoever you play.