Week 4 Selections

[Mully]

NFL Season Record * updated 28-20-3

Will start off the week with this play....

Buffalo pk (-120) above avg play Win

I thought this line was a bit stinky when I first saw it. The Bills are playing some great ball early this season and I expect it to continue on Sunday. Many favorable trends that support this play. Minny is 5-13 ats on the road vs a non-division foe off a SU loss and 8-17 ats their last 25 overall off a SU loss. The Bills are 11-4 ats their last 15 as a fav, 5-1 ats at home after covering 2 of their previous 3 games and 22-12 at home vs NFC teams.


more to come...

 

[Mully]

Under 47.5 Indy/Jets (-120) Very Strong Play Loss

Going to wait as I see this total is still on the rise. Will update when I make my wager.

If Reggie Wayne is unable to go, I will be even more confident. I will take this under either way. The under is 7-3-1 the last 11 meetings between these two at the Jets. New York is 5-1 under their last 6 Oct home games and 8-3 under their last 11 games in Oct. Indy has had a history of struggling against the Jets, but I will stay away from the side. The Colts defence showed me something last week against the Jags. This total should not be in jeprody.

 

[Papa G]

10-4...trend supports the Under.

 

[Mully]

more plays

more plays

Kansas City -6.5 (-120) regular play Win

San Fran seems to be getting their act somewhat together, However, they still stink. The bye week gave the Chiefs some time to regroup and get the offense in sync under their backup qb. Have to like a rested team up against a poor d. The 49ers are just 5-12 ats on the road off a SU and ats loss,12-22 ats on the road when the total is between 35.5 and 38 points and 1-5 ats their last 6 Oct games.

Washington +3.5(-130) regular play Win

Well, it seems I'm on the other side of the world on this one. The Jags have come out of the gate against some tough competition and one could say this is the easiest match up for them thus far. I think we got a good look at how balanced the Skins can be with a healthy Portis. Biggest game of the year for Washington thus far and I expect a big effort. The Jags are just 4-10-1 ats their last 15 in Oct and 4-12 ats after rushing for 175 or more yards in their previous contest.

Over 33.5 Jax/Skins(-120) above avg play Win

A balanced mix of the run and pass for both teams , should increase the opportunity for a couple play action scores. We've seen both of these qb's and their ability to go down field. Washington has gone over 7 of their last 8 Oct home games, while the Jags are 8-2-1 Over their past 11 as a road favorite.

 

[Papa G]

I am already in on the Skins and KC. Glad your stats support my wagering. Good luck!

 

[BadAngel]

Good luck Mully

 

[Mully]

more plays...

more plays...

Over 33.5 Sd/Balt regular play Loss how many FG's can you miss..

Arguably the two best defenses in the NFL. First one to 10 wins right? I don't think so. As good as both of these teams are at holding their opponents , I believe the coordinators on offense put in overtime trying to figure out a way to score. Word out of the Charges camp is they might even go to some no-huddle. Too many weapons on the field and It wouldn't be out of the question to get a defensive score or two in this one. Going against all the trends, but sometimes you have to go with your gut.

Oakland +3 (-130) strong play Push

Ok, I know....It's the Raiders! I figure this is the best chance for them to pick up a win all year. Two below average teams. I'll take the home dog coming in off a weeks rest. The Browns have to a bit beat up after Balt last week. FYI.... Cleveland is just 5-12 ats after rushing for 50 or less yards in their previous game and 9-16 ats on the road after losing by 3 points or less. Oakland is also 5-1 ats after a bye the past 6 years.

Big Lean for Sunday Night.....Seattle


Good Luck Gentlemen....

 

[Mully]

Sunday Night....

Sunday Night....

Over 36 (-120) Very Strong Play Win

The 4 wr set for Seattle will give the Chicago D fits. I know many feel the Seahawks will struggle on the offensive side of the ball without Shaun. Mike H. will have a soild game plan as he always does and they will find a way to score. For Chicago, I think most still underestimate the power of their offense. Grossman has looked impressive thus far and Seattle has given up some big pass plays this season. Gonna be a good one in the windy city tonight! (and the weather won't be a concern) Seattle is 8-1 over in Oct (7-1 on the road) and 7-1 over before a bye.

Seattle +3.5 above avg play Loss :mj07: wrong side of the world...

Line opened up a Seattle -1 and the public took da Bears to a 3.5 point fav. Chicago is coming off a hard fought game against Minny who I think by now well all know is an above average team. I don't put much stock in Chicago's first two against Green bay and Detroit. This WILL be the biggest test for coach Lovie and co... FYI..Seattle is 6-0 ats as a dog before a bye and 19-9 ats on the road after giving up 28 points or more.

 

[Mully]

Sunday Night in game ...

Sunday Night in game ...

Over 10.5 2nd quarter (-120) regular play Win

Love how these teams are moving the ball... A score coming up!

 

[Mully]

2nd half

2nd half

Over 7.5 3rd quarter (even) regular play Win

I bet this right away before getting my son to sleep (mom is in Baltimore all week) I thought I'd have plenty of time to get back on-line as he was spent. Didn't happen. Sorry.... I use this great site to give my opinion to anyone who might be interested , but also as a way to keep a record of EVERY one of my plays...

Over 10 4th quarter (+120) regular play Loss Seattle packed up and headed for home with 1 quarter left

The bears are just having fun at this point. I would hope each and every play for Seattle will be way down field at this point.... Already hit the over for the game, 2nd and 3rd quarter.

Season record updated in original post (7-4-1 ) today

Have a good evening...