Last Week: 6-6-0
Overall: 22-21-1
I?ve added a few extra things this week?it may help for the guy that doesn?t have a lot of time to handicap. Last game by each team is self-explanatory. The OER?Offensive Efficiency Rating or YPP?Yards Per Point is obtained by dividing total yardage gained by total points scored. It may best be stated by ?the average yards gained/needed to accumulate 1 point of score?therefore, the lower the number the better. With a few exceptions these will run from a low of about 10 to a high of 20. Actually, YPP/OER is a good indication of how teams are doing in the turnover and special teams department. If one team has only to travel 10 yards to accumulate 1 point of score compared to a team that has to travel 20 yards to do the same?it is obviously the much more efficient team.
The second thing added is what could be referred to as Line Difference (LD). It tells how well a team is performing ATS expressed in actual number differences. It is computed by adding the Margin of Victory/Loss to the Line. For Example:
(1) A 7 point favorite that wins by 14 equals a LD of +7.0
(2) A 7 point favorite that wins by 07 equals a LD of 0.0
(3) A 7 point favorite that loses by 07 equals a LD of -14.0
(4) A 7 point underdog that that wins by 7 equals a LD of +14.0
Although there has to be some implied adjustment for schedule strength with the LD as it is based in part on the line set by the oddsmaker?it can still be distorted by other factors. Real good teams and/or teams with a reputation (like Notre Dame) will rarely get ?a break? from the oddsmaker ?Also, some teams will ?pad? their record by scheduling much inferior opponents and running up score.
Team Line MyLine Edge OER LD LGame
So Miss??....................-9.0???15.5??.13.5??+9?..19-14 @ C Florida
Tulsa????-6.5???????????15.3??-7??24-23 @ Navy
C Florida???0.0???????????16.8??-22?..14-19 vs So Miss
Marshall???.0.0??.-6.5???.6.5??..15.3??-22??7-33 @ Tennessee
Florida St??..-10.0?..-12.0???2.0??..11.3??..-7??.55-7 vs Rice
N C State???????????????14.8??..-20??17-15 vs B College
TCU?????-3.0?...-8.5???.5.5??..16.4??..-10??17-31 vs BYU
Utah?????????????????.12.0??.-13??.3-36 vs Boise St
Louisville??...-31.0?..-31.5??...1/2??..11.9??..51??.24-6 @ Kansas St
M Tennessee??????????????13.3??.10??.35-0 @ N Texas
To try and see if there is any relation between OER/YPP and ATS records I?ve listed below the top 15 teams and the bottom 15 teams according to their OER. The top 15 ended up (so far) with a combined ATS record of 62.7% while the bottom had a combined ATS recorded of 27.9%. This may not prove anything and even if it does it may all even out before the end of the year. But I consider it nice to know. I?ll try to have Saturday?s games posted in a day or two.
Team OER LD ATS
1. Notre Dame???.9.3????-21?????1-3
2. W Michigan???9.5????..41?????3-1
3. Texas?????..9.9????..-4?????.2-2
4. Purdue?????.10.0????-9?????.2-2
5. Syracuse????.10.3????.31?????5-0
6. Clemson????..10.4????.65?????4-1
7. Oklahoma St???10.4????19?????2-1
8. Pittsburgh????.10.4????36?????3-1
9. LSU??????...10.8????29?????2-2
10. W Virginia????10.9????10?????2-1
11. Oklahoma????..10.9????19?????2-1
12. Boise St?????.11.1????50?????2-2
13. Kentucky?????11.2????12?????2-2
14. Florida St?????11.3????-7?????2-2
15. Texas A&M????11.3???...-1?????.3-1
37-22
1. Duke???????68????..-14?????.1-2
2. Temple??????40????...-41?????.1-3
3. Utah St??????.34.2????-70?????1-3
4. Arizona??????26.9????-35?????.1-2
5. Colorado?????..25.3????.15?????.2-1
6. San Diego St????23.3????.-56?????0-4
7. Mississippi?????22.9????-38?????1-4
8. ULM???????.22.9????-2?????..1-2
9. La Tech??????.22.3????.-41?????0-3
10. Stanford??????22.0????.-90?????0-5
11. North Texas????.19.8????..-38?????1-4
12. UAB???????..19.8????.-5?????..2-3
13. Mississippi St????19.7????.-18?????2-3
14. Northwestern????..19.2????-5?????..1-3
15. Florida Intl?????.19.1????.14?????.3-2
17-44
Selections: So Mississippi +6.5
Marshall ?Pick?
TCU -3.0
Overall: 22-21-1
I?ve added a few extra things this week?it may help for the guy that doesn?t have a lot of time to handicap. Last game by each team is self-explanatory. The OER?Offensive Efficiency Rating or YPP?Yards Per Point is obtained by dividing total yardage gained by total points scored. It may best be stated by ?the average yards gained/needed to accumulate 1 point of score?therefore, the lower the number the better. With a few exceptions these will run from a low of about 10 to a high of 20. Actually, YPP/OER is a good indication of how teams are doing in the turnover and special teams department. If one team has only to travel 10 yards to accumulate 1 point of score compared to a team that has to travel 20 yards to do the same?it is obviously the much more efficient team.
The second thing added is what could be referred to as Line Difference (LD). It tells how well a team is performing ATS expressed in actual number differences. It is computed by adding the Margin of Victory/Loss to the Line. For Example:
(1) A 7 point favorite that wins by 14 equals a LD of +7.0
(2) A 7 point favorite that wins by 07 equals a LD of 0.0
(3) A 7 point favorite that loses by 07 equals a LD of -14.0
(4) A 7 point underdog that that wins by 7 equals a LD of +14.0
Although there has to be some implied adjustment for schedule strength with the LD as it is based in part on the line set by the oddsmaker?it can still be distorted by other factors. Real good teams and/or teams with a reputation (like Notre Dame) will rarely get ?a break? from the oddsmaker ?Also, some teams will ?pad? their record by scheduling much inferior opponents and running up score.
Team Line MyLine Edge OER LD LGame
So Miss??....................-9.0???15.5??.13.5??+9?..19-14 @ C Florida
Tulsa????-6.5???????????15.3??-7??24-23 @ Navy
C Florida???0.0???????????16.8??-22?..14-19 vs So Miss
Marshall???.0.0??.-6.5???.6.5??..15.3??-22??7-33 @ Tennessee
Florida St??..-10.0?..-12.0???2.0??..11.3??..-7??.55-7 vs Rice
N C State???????????????14.8??..-20??17-15 vs B College
TCU?????-3.0?...-8.5???.5.5??..16.4??..-10??17-31 vs BYU
Utah?????????????????.12.0??.-13??.3-36 vs Boise St
Louisville??...-31.0?..-31.5??...1/2??..11.9??..51??.24-6 @ Kansas St
M Tennessee??????????????13.3??.10??.35-0 @ N Texas
To try and see if there is any relation between OER/YPP and ATS records I?ve listed below the top 15 teams and the bottom 15 teams according to their OER. The top 15 ended up (so far) with a combined ATS record of 62.7% while the bottom had a combined ATS recorded of 27.9%. This may not prove anything and even if it does it may all even out before the end of the year. But I consider it nice to know. I?ll try to have Saturday?s games posted in a day or two.
Team OER LD ATS
1. Notre Dame???.9.3????-21?????1-3
2. W Michigan???9.5????..41?????3-1
3. Texas?????..9.9????..-4?????.2-2
4. Purdue?????.10.0????-9?????.2-2
5. Syracuse????.10.3????.31?????5-0
6. Clemson????..10.4????.65?????4-1
7. Oklahoma St???10.4????19?????2-1
8. Pittsburgh????.10.4????36?????3-1
9. LSU??????...10.8????29?????2-2
10. W Virginia????10.9????10?????2-1
11. Oklahoma????..10.9????19?????2-1
12. Boise St?????.11.1????50?????2-2
13. Kentucky?????11.2????12?????2-2
14. Florida St?????11.3????-7?????2-2
15. Texas A&M????11.3???...-1?????.3-1
37-22
1. Duke???????68????..-14?????.1-2
2. Temple??????40????...-41?????.1-3
3. Utah St??????.34.2????-70?????1-3
4. Arizona??????26.9????-35?????.1-2
5. Colorado?????..25.3????.15?????.2-1
6. San Diego St????23.3????.-56?????0-4
7. Mississippi?????22.9????-38?????1-4
8. ULM???????.22.9????-2?????..1-2
9. La Tech??????.22.3????.-41?????0-3
10. Stanford??????22.0????.-90?????0-5
11. North Texas????.19.8????..-38?????1-4
12. UAB???????..19.8????.-5?????..2-3
13. Mississippi St????19.7????.-18?????2-3
14. Northwestern????..19.2????-5?????..1-3
15. Florida Intl?????.19.1????.14?????.3-2
17-44
Selections: So Mississippi +6.5
Marshall ?Pick?
TCU -3.0
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