NC State, which is 3-2 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in its last five meetings with FSU, knows how to play against the Seminoles better than most (certainly outside of the Sunshine State). Former FSU assistant Chuck Amato understands how to prepare his Wolfpack when they take on the Noles and NC State will easily stay inside this number tonight. It will be a tight, low-scoring game this evening and no way FSU covers this large number. Florida State might win, but it won't cover against this more-rested Pack team in Raleigh that is off a confidnce boosting home win over Boston College a dozen days back.
NC State has been inconsistent on the defensive side of the football at times this year, but the Pack stop unit has shined at times this year and it will be jacked up to face this less-than ordinary FSU offense that is averaging just 315 yards per game total offense. The ground gain has been stagnant (108 ypg) and QB Drew Weatherford has as many TD passes (3) as interceptions (2) this year. The offenisve line, which contains three first-year starters and has given up 10 sacks this year, is banged up including starting tackle Shannon Boatman, who has a bum knee. NC State, which is second in the ACC with 12 sacks, is solid on third down conversiosn (29 percent). The secondary is a strength and with senior linebacker James Martin leading the charge, I look for the Pack to stuff the ordinary FSU ground game and force Weatherford into mistakes.
NC State turned over the quarterbacking duties last game to Daniel Evans, who in his first start led State to final minute game-winning drive over nationally-ranked Boston College. He'll be playing with a lot of confidence in his second start and has a good runner in tailback Andre Brown (6.4 ypc) to hand the ball off, too. The Pack O-line have allowed only six sacks this year and the entire Pack offense will benefit playing against this FSU defense that while stout, is experiencing some mid-season personnel changes. Both starting corners are hobbling (and that's not including top cover man Tony Carter, who is out with a knee injury). Defensive end D.J. Norris will only see spot duty. Starting noseguard Paul Griffin was lost to injury a few games back and linebacker Marcus Ball, who had 10 tackles against Troy, wrecked his knee last week against Rice and is out for the year. This is a quality defense, but not a healthy one.
The Pack has the kicking game edge in this one as the Noles rank near the bottom in the ACC in net punting, kickoff returns and punt returns. NC State has a solid kicker in John Deraney, who has never missed in 71 career extra point attempts and banged home a 54-yard field goal earlier this season. Neither of these teams are world beaters as the entire ACC appears to be down this season. But catching this many points at home against an offense that struggles to move the football, NC State is a rock solid play tonight. They'll keep it close and easily stay inside this number.