Boxing 10/6 - 10/7

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boxlox23
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YTD Total: +1.65 units
1 unit plays: 7-4 -2.25
1/2 unit plays: 66-32 -3.40
Dogs: 47-72 +7.30



10/6

Hanshaw by 10 round decision +173...lay .15 to win .25 (loser)

Parlay

Mendy -360 (winner) / Sarritzu -750 (winner) / Kessler -650...lay .35 to win .25


10/7

Adamek-Briggs Over 11.5 -142...lay .35 to win .25 (winner)


Parlays

Donaire-Andrade Over 11.5 -245 (winner) / Kessler over Beyer -650...(-160)...lay .40 to win .25

Valuev -535 (winner) / Sarritzu -750 (winner) / Kessler -650 / Mayweath -650...(-126)...lay .30 to win .25


Dogs

Casamayor over Corrales +230...lay .10 to win .25 (winner)

Valuev by decision +320...lay .10 to win .30 (loser)

Adamek by decision +200...lay .20 to win .40 (winner)

Adamek-Briggs Draw +2000...lay .05 to win 1.0 (loser)



gl bl
 
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boxlox23
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Futures

Morales +220 over Pacquiao...lay .20 to win .45

Parlay...Kessler -650 / Mayweather -475...(-250)...lay 2.0 to win .80


Pending Parlays

Cherry -650 (winner) / Kessler -720...lay .80 to win .25

Williams over Mitchell -365 (winner) / Kessler over Beyer -720...lay 1.2 to win .45

Williams -400 (winner) / Kessler -650 / Mayweather -475...(-135)...lay .35 to win .25

Augustus over Burton -270 (winner) / Kessler over Beyer -650...(-170)...lay .50 to win .30
 
F

frank s.

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Glad you are able to get a read on the Casamajor-Corrales thing. I keep going back and forth with it, but I am leaning towards Corrales. It's just he eats too many damn shots that concerns me. Casamajor is no doubt a very live dog and I think Chico is a tad overpriced, but the 7 year age difference doesn't hurt. I am, at this point, decidedly on the other side with Morales-Pac-man. If Manny doesn't f**k this up by screwing up his training, I will run with him here. I think Morales will succumb to many wars and advanced age. Maybe he gets old overnight, maybe not. By age, I mean "ring" age.
 
gardenweasel

gardenweasel

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"the bunker"
i see that i`m not the only swinging dick that grabbed some axel schulz at +200 in germany....

granted,he`s old...inactive...etc.....but,he was a pretty awkward guy to fight.....at 6`3"......vs a 5`10 or 11" minto.....

i kinda like minto...he`ll give 100%....and may well be to much for an old schulz.... ..but,there`s more than enough retionale for taking an old schulz at home at those odds....

btw....b.l....i love ya`...and i see the reasoning behind taking a morales vs almost anybody at +200 plus......

but,that last beatdown that he took from pacman.....i think that was the beginning of the end for morales.....

he`s been slipping and that beating may well have pushed him over the edge....

but,he is morales....if anyone can dig himself out of the ditch,it could be him....

i hope he`s not looking at barrera`s boxing exhibition and thinking he can do that vs pacman....pacman is a little different than rocky juarez...

balls to the wall,though,i think fighting pacman again isn`t a great move...

either way,g.l. to you...my heart is with morales here...i`d love to see him get it done...
 
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boxlox23
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I'm not exactly predicting a Casamayor win and I didn't place this wager due to some recent brainstorm. I don't have a better read on this fight than anyone else, I just got a better line by playing the opener. With Corrales now at -180...I can scalp whenever I want, but I'm letting it ride at what I think is a great price. At even money...I would lean Corrales, at +230 I'll take Casamayor

Basically the same scenario with Morales, I'm not pedicting a win, just got a great price on the live dog by playing the opener. Again, with Pac now at -200 I could scalp at any time, but I'm letting it ride (for now) at a great price. I know Morales took a beating in their last fight, but I think his struggle to make weight hurt him as much as Pac did. If I hear that Morales is having trouble making weight again, I'll scalp it.



I don't want to get into the scalping issue right now (weekly lines should be out any time) but later this week I'd like to discuss

Lets get to work fellas


Btw, its hard to get a read on Glenn Donaire's chin. Against Z Gorrez, he was cut by a headbutt in the 1st round, but decided to continue fighting. Moments later he was caught by a huge punch and all the sudden he didn't want to continue anymore, saying he couldn't see.

Interesting

gl bl
 
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boxlox23
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gardenweasel said:
i see that i`m not the only swinging dick that grabbed some axel schulz at +200 in germany....
Click to expand...



And thats why you must get the openers


Good catch gw, I check 5dimes for new lines every day and still missed that one. By the time I got to it, Schulz was already down to +117.

Gotta get those openers fellas

Speaking of openers, where's the weekly lines?
 
H

Hellephant

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Boxing and betting. First I had a good week, then one even, and last week, it was a bad one. If it's rotation, I guess it's time for a good week.

Valuev vs Barrett
Barrett lasted the distance with Mesi, Rahman and Witherspoon. And Valuev is no beast. In this one, I do not hesitate, the odds are good and I play:

Valuev by decision +330, I play it medium.


Briggs vs Adamek
In their first fight, it was bombs and grenades throughout. Briggs was cut badly, early, but he seems to have a great chin. Adamek did wobble several times, but he is a freak so I only worry if Adamek can stop Briggs? I play:

Briggs vs Adamek over 11,5 rounds -143, I play it medium.


Corrales vs Casamayor
I don't see Corrales stopping Casamayor. I guess Casamayor could get disqualified, but I play:

Will Corrales win by KO, TKO or DQ ? NO -222, I play it big.



adding

Matt Zegan +101, I play it medium
Zegan vs Campbell over 9,5 rounds -106.25, I play it medium
 
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Flipper13

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I predict Corrales winning by way of DQ.

Casa is a dirty mofo in the ring, and the commission/refs will be clocking him hard in Vegas this time...I wish I could elaborate more on this but even this is probably too much.

With these two fighters surely there will be controversy once it is all over.
 
S

s_dooley24

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UT-Longhorn said:
box, what do you mean scalp? thanks
Click to expand...

Quick example:

Opening line Tyson +400/ Lewis -440

Say you think there is value in Tyson +400 (meaning you think the line will drop as the fight approaches for whatever reason) you don't have to actually like Tyson to win b/c you plan on scalping or maybe just hedging later.
So you take Tyson at +400 for a unit.

By fight night the line is now
Tyson+200/Lewis-200.

At this price you can't pass up Lewis b/c you believe he's the better fighter so you take Lewis
-200 for 2 units. Now you have basically a free (no risk) unit riding on Lewis. (Or if you still like Tyson you could take Lewis for just 1 unit to hedge the Tyson bet).

Outcomes:

1. Tyson wins (+400 on him, -400 on Lewis)
= wash

2. Lewis wins (+200 on him, -100 on Tyson)
+100 or 1 unit

Scalping is pretty much the same thing as hedging except you're locking in a guranteed profit.

Say a line opens at +200 (Tyson)/-220(Lewis) and you take Tyson +200 for .5 unit. By fight night Lewis is -120 so you take him for .7 units. Now you have locked in your profit (small but still guranteed).

Tyson wins (+100 on him and -84 on Lewis)= 16 profit

Lewis wins (+70 on him and - 50 on Tyson) = 20 profit.

Only thing with scalping is that you have to be making pretty large wagers for it to be worth while to do all the work and shop the lines.

All Box is saying is that he plays opening lines he deems have value hoping for favorable line movement which will put him in a good situation to hedge/scalp. The catch is if people that follow him don't get the opening lines they could be left out of a scalping situation when Box all along had the intention to scalp his original play.

Hope that explains it and hope you don't mind the explanation Box...I think its pretty on and I'm a little bored.
 
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boxlox23
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Adding


Valuev by decision +320...lay .10 to win .30

Adamek by decision +200...lay .20 to win .40

Adamek-Briggs Draw +2000...lay .05 to win 1.0


gl bl
 
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boxlox23
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Sorry for not posting those earlier, lines came out late this week and I've been busy the last 3 days


Donaire won by 12 round UD...the Over cashed
 
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