College Football Picks (10/13-10/15) YTD: 45-39, +0.8 units

[BGFalcon]

Early picks:

Temple +43.5 over Clemson
Minnesota/Wisconsin under 49
C. Michigan -9.5 over Ball St.
BGSU -11 over E. Michigan
ULM +10 over Troy

 

[Roger Baltrey]

BG,


Why Temple? Does Bowden call off the Dogs?

 

[BGFalcon]

Clemson has Georgia Tech after Temple and they are playing on 5 days of rest. I think they score big early and then coast. One score by Temple should get the cover. 49-7 Clemson.

 

[BGFalcon]

Forgot one:

Forgot one:

Toledo/Kent over 46

 

[BGFalcon]

Write ups:

Write ups:

Temple +43.5 over Clemson: You can get 44 now and might get another half or so by gametime.

Minnesota/Wisconsin under 49: Wisky scored on a 25 yard run with 54 seconds to go last week or it stays under. They have been at or below this number in every other game except Indiana. Minnesota would be under this number the last three weeks except for the overtime. Two teams who are not great offensively but committed to running the ball should keep this one low scoring.

CMU -9.5 over Ball St.: I don't care what Ball St. did against Buffalo--they are not going to be able to stop CMU. Ball St. has been able to score but, similar to Toledo, they can't stop anyone. Kelly has the Chips playing well and they won't stumble here.

BGSU -11 over EMU: Falcons are getting better (except for their screwed up punt formations) and should put up a ton of points against Hurons...err Eagles. BG should be a confident after doing a decent job against Ohio St. I was especially impressed with the fight the defense had in them. EMU blew their early season chances at a win (Ball St. and ULL) and are looking at an oh-fer this year.

ULM +10 over Troy: I grabbed this one early figuring it would close around 8. I don't think anyone in the Sun Belt is good enough to be laying double-digits. ULM hung with Arkansas St. last week and I don't think Troy is better than ASU. I'll take the points.

Toledo/Kent St. over 46: Rockets have given up over 30 to everyone except McNeese St. and I don't see this changing against Kent who should bounce back nicely from a sluggish win against Temple. Toledo hasn't been as good offensively this year but they have had some injuries. Now that they are getting settled I see them getting things going. This one should be fun to watch.

 

[Scotter]

Good Luck this week Falcon, I always enjoy reading your threads!

 

[RIGHT SIDE]

GL with the plays!! With ya on BG and ULM!!

 

[BGFalcon]

Totals:

Totals:

Colorado St./Air Force under 46

UCLA/Oregon over 52

Ohio/Illinois over 44

Texas Tech/Colorado under 48.5

New Mexico/UNLV over 37.5

Arkansas St./Memphis over 44

 

[Scotter]

Any DI-AA this week?

 

[BGFalcon]

Division I-AA

Division I-AA

Dayton +6 over Jacksonville: The last two weeks have been awful for Dayton losing to Butler and Morehead St. But that stretch is giving some value for this week. Dayton has really played poorly defensively this year and that should have been the strength of this team. They should get healthy against a so-so Jacksonville offense. Look for Hoyng to have a big day passing and Dayton win outright.

William & Mary +5 over Liberty: Too much is being made of W&M's 48-7 loss last week. W&M drove into UMass territory on 5 of their 6 first half drives but couldn't score. UMass definitely dominated the game but not enough to make W&M and underdog against Liberty. Liberty's stats look good but when you look at their schedule you see why. Take the points.

Georgia Southern -1.5 over Elon: I actually got this at PK when it opened and couldn't believe it. Elon is getting better but they are not going on the road and winning this game. GS will use their strong running game to control the ball. Elon has been very one-dimensional on offense (they haven't had 100 yards rushing in a game yet) and you can't win on the road against a good team like that. This line will be 6 or 7 by gametime.

Villanova +10.5 over Maine: I thought Maine would be favored by a FG so I was happy to grab the double-digits. Villanova has been competive in every game this year and has played a solid schedule. Maine is a very good team but Villanova matches up pretty well with them. In the end, Maine should win the game but I don't see them covering double-digits.

Montana St. -1 over Sacramento State: Montana St. has bounced back well from 3 early losses and should get a win here. Sacramento St. got lucy last week to beat Weber St. but won't be so fortunate this week. Their weak offense will struggle to score against Montana St. and MSU should have a field day passing against Sac St.'s secondary.

Idaho St. +19 over Portland St.:
This one opened at 21 and is will continue to fall. This will be a nice test for Idaho St.'s offense because Portland St. is pretty strong on defense by Big Sky standards. Portland St.'s problem is that they are having trouble scoring. I don't think a team that averages less than 20 points a game should be laying 19.

 

[DpMayor]

Really love the (over) 30 1st half number, think they call off the dogs after the first possession 2nd half. I look for a 35 - 0 half time score

 

[Spalding]

Love the Georgia Southern and Montana St games!

Also looking at these:

Davidson -6 at More Head
Coastal Carolina -19 at VMI
UMASS -10 at Towson

Lot of road chalk but what the hell. :scared

 

[BGFalcon]

Spalding,
I like Coastal Carolina and UMass also but part of my screening process is to eliminate double-digit road chalk. I think both of those lines are off by around 7-9 points.

As for Montana St. and Georgia Southern, I can't see either team losing these games. Both games should be decided by more than a TD.

I also grabbed Furman at -14 over The Shitadel but the line moved to 14.5 so I didn't post it. I think Furman comes back hard after last week's upset. Also kind of like Texas St. getting 13 against McNeese St. but the coaching situation is too big of a question mark for me.

 

[Carl Spackler]

Be careful on that Dayton game. The running game has totally been scrapped which is unfamiliar territory for Mike Kelly and the defense is struggling against poor teams. I laid the 5.5 on Pinny.

On a side note, Gary and Paula are making the trip to Jacksonville, so I hope there is enough beer in town. But what does Paula care....it's not her beer.