Ramble On

[lostinamerica]

NCAA YTD: 16-11 (+6.74*)

NFL YTD: 9-8 (+0.15*)


It's not by design, but California Dreamin' is definitely where my card starts this week:


USC(-19) over Arizona State (1*)
- - I'll start my analysis with a quote and a link from last week:

Washington(+19) over USC (1*)
- - A second road game is about the only situational negative, but UW and their surprising mastermind should be able to get themselves up for this here little spot . . . As Pete Carroll noted, "Washington is doing what good teams do." . . . With Norm Chow and so many weapons long gone, this USC edition is not the offensive-minded Superman that can cover any and all spreads, but is relying on lots of D to control close games . . .The Pac-10 has easily been my most profitable conference for now going on four seasons . . . I not only stopped posting links to, but stopped giving weight to, any write-ups at covers.com, after getting drubbed twice in a row after doing so, a long time ago, but taking a shot this time:
Link: http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=92350&tid=30

- - Unlike Washington, ASU has not been, "doing what good teams do." A case can and has been made regarding ASU that there are messes to be dealt with at QB and on defense, and serious questions about the coaching leadership to engineer a full 180 degree turn, and get it started on the road. My research has not shaken my sense of a situational set-up in which ASU spent too much time during the off week licking some deep wounds . . . Even if I could make a case that ASU was using their bye week to good advantage and would take the field invigorated (and my capping tells me they have not) - even if I bought into that premise, I don't think an off week would truly prepare ASU for the "bruising tempo" I can count on USC bringing to this game . . . As for the Trojans, after watching their receivers (Jarrett and Smith) (McFoy already out) go out against Washington, I wanted to adopt a wait and see attitude before jumping on this game as quick as I otherwise would have, but when the line came out I fairly quickly concluded it was more than fair, regardless. Maybe no healing, no depth and stone hands will leave a void that calls into question the reality of Pete Carroll's vaunted recruiting efforts, but instead I think it's more likely USC will be at least a tad more crisp and focused in this second home game before their bye, which should be plenty to get serious momentum rolling in this one.


San Jose State(-14) over Utah State (1*)
- - Prior to the San Diego State game, I noted in a post my very favorable impressions regarding San Jose State in that matchup; my research prior to that game and the results that followed put this feel good story squarely in my comfort zone . . . Utah State has scored 41 points in 6 games and is coming off the biggest upset win in recent memory . . . The SJSU Spartans are a veteran team with matchup advantages in size and speed all over the field, they are displaying tremendous leadership at the top coming from HC Dick Tomey and QB Adam Tafralis, after a fairly bruising stretch there has been a week off prior to this Homecoming game that opens the conference season, there is a little revenge for last year to add to the focus, and I could trot out a handful of trends that back up SJSU as the play. I can't find a substantial angle or any line value for playing the visitor in this one, really, seriously.


California(-8) over Washington State (1*)
- - After a humbling opener, Cal has been terrorizing opponents on both sides of the ball, including special teams, with weapons and matchup advantages to exploit in virtually every down and distance scenario during the course of the game. The potential for a letdown certainly exists this week as the Homecoming opponent on the Palouse, and this one is squarely on the team and coaches to see that bad news doesnt materialize: http://cctextra.com/blogs/beartalk/ . . . Washington State is none too healthy with targets for QB Alex Brink, and the team has enjoyed a mini-roll while being not that good, IMO . . . After 47 long years and one recent disappointment, I know for certain how badly the entire Cal program wants to punch their ticket for a trip to the Rose Bowl; a stumblebum effort here is not the right way of going about that mission, and Cal will carry my cash again this week.


GL

 

[lostinamerica]

NCAA YTD: 18-11 (+6.74*)
- - corrected - -
NFL YTD: 9-8 (+0.15*)


Washington(-9') over Oregon State (1*)
- - Off the mark line movement from -11 to -9(-105), IMO . . . Including a sense of mission on the season, only one of these clubs is, "doing what good teams do," starting at the top with HC Willingham and QB Stanback. After being denied their time for a snap to shock the world, I like the chances of Washington being well-engaged in this one before any misfortune is too serious, and to be superior thereafter. http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/huskies/288700_husk14.html


This week, IMO, Oregon probably has the toughest Pac10 situation to gauge and assess; across the ball, UCLA has an excellent identity on defense, which several weeks ago I only expected to get better. Under 55 was the play :yup - I never claimed to be quick about this stuff. :idea: . . . I'm on top of my game enough to know enough to have no opinion on backing Arizona (or Stanford) over other opportunities. . . . that covers it.


But it's a busy Saturday, and I need something in the early games.


GL

*******************************
Don't believe everything you think.

 

[lostinamerica]

Excuse these choppy ramblings . . .


Florida(-2) over Auburn (1*)
- - I like my record in games (like this one) in which I go into my research favoring one side and come down on the other side . . . Regardless of whether Auburn is really good or just good, it will take a special effort from a special team having a special season to make the handful of decisive plays needed to sneak in and take this one after all the emotion of last week, but Urban Meyer has this very talented team believing and achieving, and he says they will "spill it" this week, so I'm expecting something worth believing in.
(This succinct link chosen over several insightful articles that covered less ground: http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/cfootball/288694_auburn14.html )


Baylor(+28') over Texas (1*)
- - Coming off a triple OT win on the road can't be the reason. I just know what I know, and this team has a Big Heart and is very, very, very hungry. As HC Guy Morriss essentially said at the start of the week, I'm glad they could enjoy a win because of the tough week he had in store for them. (Well, Coach Morriss still has some 'splaining to do for last year when he inexplicably benched QB Shawn Bell before this game against a Texas squad that was making history, accomplishing nothing more than making sure I stayed very far away; I hope he is up to making some amends for that coaching blunder by pushing some of the right buttons this week, which has to include trusting the leadership he has been getting.) Anyway, there is plenty of grit and playmaking going on with this Baylor team for them to be a pest all night, and it would be hugely ironic if a team that has struggled to emerge for 1.5+ years because it can't score enough points just so happens to hang the 17-20 points they are likely to need here.


Maryland(-3) over Virginia (1*)
- - As what turns out to be my only "early game", I chose this play over Wake Forest(+3'), probably to my regret . . . IMO, Maryland has really "spiked up" beginning with the start of the second half against West Virginia; Virginia has been taking smaller steps in the right direction for a while as well (which was the only reason I hesitated and ultimately went small with an unposted play on ECU last week). And no question Mayland has "been in a fog" for recent trips to UVA, while from the start, any credibility of Virginia under HC Groh has relied on wins at home . . . Nevertheless, while a beleaguered UVA team might well bring their "A game" to this contest, I'm playing a strong hunch that a candidly frustrated Terps team which had last week's game right there for the taking and failed to do so, will be on song to get a job done this week, and that the visitor's "A game" is indeed enough to get it done.


GL