In my opinion home dogs in college foots is the best bet you can make. Homefield advantage, for one reason or another, is enormous in college football. Stanford is an exception because they are one of the worst teams in the nation. I think Duke could probably knock them off. Wazzu is another poor team that gets way too much respect in my opinion. I took Cal early in the week just because I think Cal is probably 3 TDs better than them, even on the road. I don't have a real good read on Fresno but they're not as good as I thought they were early in the year.
One last note... I've done quite well the last couple of years betting on home teams during nationally televised ESPN weeknight games. The road team rarely covers though. I realize Pitt did last night, but it seems like it's usually the other way around.