Last Week:
Selections: 6-5-1
Leans: 0-6-0
I?m strugglingly this year guys or at least not doing what I feel I should be doing. Crunching numbers has been good to me at times in the past but by itself I don?t feel it?s going to get the job done. I also have not been letting my gut instinct operate; I?ve been doing this long enough that I should know at times when something just doesn?t seem right in spite of what the numbers may say. So I?m going to use a combination of both and keep things as simple as I can. I?m basically going to go with teams that have a significant advantage in the rushing department (offense and/or defense) , while not being too far behind in the passing department or just as good or better (hopefully)? and in a spread range that I?m comfortable with?not laying to many points or giving up to many points. My lean record last week will testify to the ?not getting to many points.? Here?s what I?m looking at this week with a comment or 2 on some games. SS (Schedule Strength) is according to Sagarin. Rushing stats are in yardage while passing stats are in PYPA (Passing Yards per Attempt) and PYPAA (Passing Yards per Attempt Allowed). I feel these two may be the best indicator of a teams worth?I know that?s up for debate but I?ve got to go with something. Some stats may be rounded off.
SS----Team-------------PF/PA-------ATS--------RO-------RD--------PO---------PD------------
61-----ULL--------------24-29--------2-1---------209-------110--------5.50-------8.50----------
68-----FAT--------------08-42--------1-3---------089-------198--------5.81-------7.70
There is a huge rushing advantage in this game favoring UL Lafayette and they don?t lag too far behind in the passing department. The only thing that somewhat concerns me here is SS with Florida Atlantic playing the more difficult schedule. This was my last selection. I took ULL instead of Tulsa over Memphis. While I felt Tulsa is a much better team than Memphis a combination of instinct and not wanting to lay over 10 put me on ULL instead.
68-----BGR------------21-31--------3-3----------200------150---------6.13--------6.40
70-----CMU-----------28-29--------6-0----------114-------145--------7.09--------6.80
Cen Michigan has been real good to me this year but they have been having some close covers. I just feel this game will be within a touchdown and that the 7.5 is pretty generous. Possible SU win by Bowling Green.
61-----RUT------------31-10--------2-2----------208-------74---------6.28---------5.80
63-----PIT--------------35-14-------4-1----------141-------115--------10.16--------5.2
The rushing advantage is clearly in Rutgers favor. The only concern is Pittsburgh ?s PYPA. However, I think Rutger?s pass defense will keep them to a much lower number. If Pitt hadn?t demolished their last opponent I don?t think they would have opened at no more than a 3.5 pt favorite. I?m going with Rutgers?they may lose the game but I don?t feel it will be by more than a field goal. Another possible SU win.
70-----UCL------------29-12--------3-2----------152--------50---------6.58--------5.70
75-----NDI-------------30-24--------1-4----------107-------135--------6.98--------7.30
I like UCLA in this spot. SS is a mild concern but I believe Notre Dame is just about always ?asked to lay? about 3 or 4 more points than they should (at home anyway). May be a stretch but believe UCLA could even pull the upset.
63-----KAN-----------27-24???2-3----------153--------98---------6.68--------6.5
69-----BAY-----------23-18---------3-2-----------41--------126---------6.26-------6.2
Another big advantage here in rushing with no significant difference in the passing department. I won going against Kansas the last two weeks but I like them in this spot in spite of their amazing ability ?to give? a game away. I think they perform much better as a dog than as a favorite and I see another possible SU win here for the dog.
62-----SMU----------27-22----------3-2----------134--------83---------7.02---------6.9
70-----ECU-----------22-23----------5-0----------120-------186--------7.34---------6.6
A small advantage in rushing offense for SMU but a big difference in rushing defense. Playing this one a lot on ?feel??I think SMU has performed above most everyone?s expectations this year while East Carolina has done so-so?at least SU anyway. Believe SMU?s pass defense will keep ECU in check?SMU did play a pass happy UTEP close on the road?Another possible upset?
66-----WIS-----------32-13???.4-0???..187--------119--------7.99???4.60
63-----PUR-----------34-33----------2-3----------160--------155--------8.10???7.90
A moderate advantage for Wisconsin in the rushing department. Purdue does put up a lot of passing offense (in yardage anyway) but if you look at PYPA it?s barely better than the Badgers. I think the real difference in this game will come down to pass defense with a significant advantage to Wisconsin in both passing yardage allowed (128 to 285---not shown above) and in YPAA (4.60 to 7.90). Besides this, I?m just a sucker for road favorites laying more than a field goal and less than a touchdown.
60-----SJS-----------28-22----------3-0-----------174--------182--------8.00---------6.70
67-----NEV---------27-26----------4-1------------153--------149-------7.65---------7.10
I like San Jose St here. The stats all look about even and I?m getting more than 10 points. I like that situation?My only concern is SS and the fact that ?the man? opened the game at about 14.0 in the first place?I figured about 9 or 10 at the most. I?m going with San Jose St anyway.
76-----OSB---------25-23----------1-3-----------112----------114---------7.11----------7.70
74-----ARI----------08-25----------1-3-----------013----------135---------5.55----------7.70
Rushing defense is about the same but a huge advantage in rushing offense for the Beavers. The passing Offense/Defense looks about the same for both teams with the exception of a decent advantage for the Beavers in PYPA (7.11 to 5.55). I guess the real question in this game is?Has Arizona turned things around (at the expense of Stanford) or will they revert back to their normal ways? I just believe Oregon St is the better team here and only laying 2.0 (even on the road) is the way to go.
Selections:
UL Lafayette -8.0
Bowling Green +7.5
Rutgers +6.5
UCLA +13.5
Kansas +3.5
SMU +6.0
Wisconsin -6.0
San Jose St +13.5
Oregon St -2.0
Selections: 6-5-1
Leans: 0-6-0
I?m strugglingly this year guys or at least not doing what I feel I should be doing. Crunching numbers has been good to me at times in the past but by itself I don?t feel it?s going to get the job done. I also have not been letting my gut instinct operate; I?ve been doing this long enough that I should know at times when something just doesn?t seem right in spite of what the numbers may say. So I?m going to use a combination of both and keep things as simple as I can. I?m basically going to go with teams that have a significant advantage in the rushing department (offense and/or defense) , while not being too far behind in the passing department or just as good or better (hopefully)? and in a spread range that I?m comfortable with?not laying to many points or giving up to many points. My lean record last week will testify to the ?not getting to many points.? Here?s what I?m looking at this week with a comment or 2 on some games. SS (Schedule Strength) is according to Sagarin. Rushing stats are in yardage while passing stats are in PYPA (Passing Yards per Attempt) and PYPAA (Passing Yards per Attempt Allowed). I feel these two may be the best indicator of a teams worth?I know that?s up for debate but I?ve got to go with something. Some stats may be rounded off.
SS----Team-------------PF/PA-------ATS--------RO-------RD--------PO---------PD------------
61-----ULL--------------24-29--------2-1---------209-------110--------5.50-------8.50----------
68-----FAT--------------08-42--------1-3---------089-------198--------5.81-------7.70
There is a huge rushing advantage in this game favoring UL Lafayette and they don?t lag too far behind in the passing department. The only thing that somewhat concerns me here is SS with Florida Atlantic playing the more difficult schedule. This was my last selection. I took ULL instead of Tulsa over Memphis. While I felt Tulsa is a much better team than Memphis a combination of instinct and not wanting to lay over 10 put me on ULL instead.
68-----BGR------------21-31--------3-3----------200------150---------6.13--------6.40
70-----CMU-----------28-29--------6-0----------114-------145--------7.09--------6.80
Cen Michigan has been real good to me this year but they have been having some close covers. I just feel this game will be within a touchdown and that the 7.5 is pretty generous. Possible SU win by Bowling Green.
61-----RUT------------31-10--------2-2----------208-------74---------6.28---------5.80
63-----PIT--------------35-14-------4-1----------141-------115--------10.16--------5.2
The rushing advantage is clearly in Rutgers favor. The only concern is Pittsburgh ?s PYPA. However, I think Rutger?s pass defense will keep them to a much lower number. If Pitt hadn?t demolished their last opponent I don?t think they would have opened at no more than a 3.5 pt favorite. I?m going with Rutgers?they may lose the game but I don?t feel it will be by more than a field goal. Another possible SU win.
70-----UCL------------29-12--------3-2----------152--------50---------6.58--------5.70
75-----NDI-------------30-24--------1-4----------107-------135--------6.98--------7.30
I like UCLA in this spot. SS is a mild concern but I believe Notre Dame is just about always ?asked to lay? about 3 or 4 more points than they should (at home anyway). May be a stretch but believe UCLA could even pull the upset.
63-----KAN-----------27-24???2-3----------153--------98---------6.68--------6.5
69-----BAY-----------23-18---------3-2-----------41--------126---------6.26-------6.2
Another big advantage here in rushing with no significant difference in the passing department. I won going against Kansas the last two weeks but I like them in this spot in spite of their amazing ability ?to give? a game away. I think they perform much better as a dog than as a favorite and I see another possible SU win here for the dog.
62-----SMU----------27-22----------3-2----------134--------83---------7.02---------6.9
70-----ECU-----------22-23----------5-0----------120-------186--------7.34---------6.6
A small advantage in rushing offense for SMU but a big difference in rushing defense. Playing this one a lot on ?feel??I think SMU has performed above most everyone?s expectations this year while East Carolina has done so-so?at least SU anyway. Believe SMU?s pass defense will keep ECU in check?SMU did play a pass happy UTEP close on the road?Another possible upset?
66-----WIS-----------32-13???.4-0???..187--------119--------7.99???4.60
63-----PUR-----------34-33----------2-3----------160--------155--------8.10???7.90
A moderate advantage for Wisconsin in the rushing department. Purdue does put up a lot of passing offense (in yardage anyway) but if you look at PYPA it?s barely better than the Badgers. I think the real difference in this game will come down to pass defense with a significant advantage to Wisconsin in both passing yardage allowed (128 to 285---not shown above) and in YPAA (4.60 to 7.90). Besides this, I?m just a sucker for road favorites laying more than a field goal and less than a touchdown.
60-----SJS-----------28-22----------3-0-----------174--------182--------8.00---------6.70
67-----NEV---------27-26----------4-1------------153--------149-------7.65---------7.10
I like San Jose St here. The stats all look about even and I?m getting more than 10 points. I like that situation?My only concern is SS and the fact that ?the man? opened the game at about 14.0 in the first place?I figured about 9 or 10 at the most. I?m going with San Jose St anyway.
76-----OSB---------25-23----------1-3-----------112----------114---------7.11----------7.70
74-----ARI----------08-25----------1-3-----------013----------135---------5.55----------7.70
Rushing defense is about the same but a huge advantage in rushing offense for the Beavers. The passing Offense/Defense looks about the same for both teams with the exception of a decent advantage for the Beavers in PYPA (7.11 to 5.55). I guess the real question in this game is?Has Arizona turned things around (at the expense of Stanford) or will they revert back to their normal ways? I just believe Oregon St is the better team here and only laying 2.0 (even on the road) is the way to go.
Selections:
UL Lafayette -8.0
Bowling Green +7.5
Rutgers +6.5
UCLA +13.5
Kansas +3.5
SMU +6.0
Wisconsin -6.0
San Jose St +13.5
Oregon St -2.0
