One Large Wager

[stwoody]

Recap: 40-41-1 (-25.6 units)

Well I'm heading to Reno for the week, and its that time of year that I start laying a bit more out, but narrow the field. I have been capping the games since Sunday morning...as I cap the games first.....then match my line to the openings.......I put out a large wager on this one that may send my season into a downspin, but I feel there is a lot of value on this line.

I took a big hit this weekend dropping two second half wagers that burnt a little whole in the bankroll. Not sure why ALL Totals have been poor this year, but I know enough to quit something that isn't working. Totals in CFB have been horrid......flat out! So I will stick to sides, and hope for the best. This is the first season I have taken to posting CFB and like most gamblers I'm supersticious, so I'm starting to wonder if I'm jinxing my plays:scared .........:142smilie

I just played UCLA (-1) for 20 units .......I follow the PAC 10 but honestly rarely find much value in this league. When I do, I hit it pretty hard. UCLA is a very good ball team as witnessed against Notre Dame this past weekend. The Defense is strong and playing very well.........My numbers have UCLA by 7..........and factoring in a strong homefield...Rose Bowl.....I love the Bruins in this spot. Washington St. didn't impress me against Oregon St.....and after their big win against the Ducks I expect a big letdown. The total appears a bit high in this one, but I'll stick with the side and hope the Bruins bring their A game in front of the home-crowd. UCLA is 7-1 ATS at home in last 8 games. Home team is 7-2 in last 9.

Good Luck Madjackers this week......heading to Reno to have some Jack and Cokes and kick it in the sports books............
Stwoody

 

[johnnyb.]

i was leaning towards this kinda of play too but after that emotional drain they went thru on saturday, i just couldn't go that big... think your definetly on the right side! good luck and have a great week.

 

[gman2]

ucla's defense is impressive. they answered the challenge at notre dame. but their offense is abysmal -- cowan, olson, it doesnt matter. i mean this is a team that legitimately struggled to score against stanford. that game could have easily ended 14-0. didnt do much for most of the game against oregon. didnt do much against notre dame. and wazzou is one of the few west coast teams that has any interest in playing defense. opening line of wazzou as the chalk might have been a little much. didnt quite expect that. but just cant see either team running away wth this game. both Ds are solid. wouldnt have said this before the year, but as it stands this should be a good pac10 game thats worth looking forward to. enjoy vegas.

 

[stwoody]

Thanks for the input gentlemen.............

Johnny B- I know this is your team so I'm glad that your comfortable with the play. Please post if you hear anything of interest regarding the Bruins this week....ie: injuries, etc.......I think we will see more movement on the line closer to gametime.......possibly closing at UCLA -3...

GMAN- Always read your take and appreciate the input. Like I said, I don't find a lot of value in the PAC 10 because crazy things happen. Yes, that game was a drain, but I think it gave these Bruins some confidence and identity. Their defense will keep this game close, and if it is a difference in special teams, Bruins hold an edge. Has to be a letdown here...or hangover after the win against the Ducks. I do think the under may also warrant a play, but I want to see the movement first. Wash. St. offense will struggle in the Rose Bowl, and I think UCLA will win by 10 or more, but if not, and a field goal decides, I like my chances. Dorrel is underated as a Coach........Thanks for your input!

*I like the USC line also as I don't think much of this Beaver team.........I think USC blows by the Beavers.....but playing in Corvallis and the kicker..Serna could keep this within the number......I going to be watching the line movement on this one too.

**Looking forward to seeing some old friends in Reno (Little Vegas).......packin my bags tonight and on the road tomorrow afternoon. Have a good week!

 

[blgstocks]

Definitely think your on the right side of this one as well, my only concern as Gman stated - Bruins are going to need to score to cover and WSU is one of the harder teams to do that on. I like the play but I do not know if I like it enough to pull the trigger.

GL and have a great time in vegas

 

[stwoody]

Thanks BLGSTOCKS............I'm heading out the door here in about an hour. Should be a fun time....Good Luck with your wagers!

 

[pt1gard]

follow league closely, this is tough call IMHO, I will say tho I might bet ucla at half if its close/tied etc ... seems NW teams fade in 2nd half historically in LA this time of year ... cougies playing for a bowl now and have had a series of good efforts


gl, gregg