nfl plays for 10/29-10/30...

A

AR182

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26-19.....+29.26*

took an absolute beating last week in the nfl....hopefully i can get back on the winning track this week......


tenn....ml (155)......

this is a good spot for tenn. coming off a bye & houston upsetting jax. as a dd home dog....also think that tenn. will have success running the ball.

a few ml trends supporting this play......

play against - underdogs vs. the money line (houston) - in conference games, off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog.

last 5 seasons the record is 33-2....94.3%

play against - road underdogs vs. the money line (houston) - off an upset win as a home underdog, with a losing record.
last 5 seasons the record is 32-2....94.1%


under 38(130) n.o./balt.....

both teams are coming off a bye week.

i think balt. will try to establish the run vs. the n.o. rush defense that ranks 30th in the league allowing 4.92 ypr.

also think that the balt. defense will be able to slow the n.o. offense down.

a system that i read about supports this play...

when both teams had the week off last week & the home team is favored by 3 points or less or the game is pickem, the league is 0-18 o/u.

off of a bye in a game that could go either way, both teams will play cautiously, each willing to wait for the other team to make a mistake.


good luck.
 
A

AR182

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adding...

g.b.-3(125)....

although i read that green is questionable for tomorrow's game,i think g.b. will still respond very well offm of their upset win last week against miami.

maybe it's because they are playing arizona tomorrow. i think denny green has lost this team & they seem to be a play against team for the rest of the year. i read that nobody's talking to green during the practices & that's a bad sign for a head coach.

also the cards are 0-7 ats on the road the week after scoring 10 points or less & 0-8 ats when their rushing yards decrease in each of the last 2 weeks.


under 41 tb/giants....

i took this early in the week because i think the giants come out a little flat against the bucs after their 2 upset wins against atlanta & dallas.

i also read that it will be very windy in the meadowlands tomorrow with wind gusts up to 40 mph.

good luck.
 
M

MrChristo

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Sexlexia...
when both teams had the week off last week & the home team is favored by 3 points or less or the game is pickem, the league is 0-18 o/u.

Not sure that's quite right, ar...

...I've got 1-13 under since 1989...Atl 28-27 NO in 1990 as home -2.5 (39.5) went over.

Either way, I'm on it! :D

Good luck..like the Tenn ML trend. :cool:
 
A

AR182

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thanks guys..appreciate it.

adding...

under 40(120) jax/phil....

i like the under for a few reasons....i read that there will be winds around 20 mph during the game....jax. is playing their 2nd string qb (who's very good for a backup) & i think will try to play keep away from the phil. offense....& this trend.....

play under - any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (phil.) - after a loss by 6 or less points against opponent after a loss by 10 or more points.

last 5 seasons the ats record is 23-4........85.2%


good luck.
 
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A

AR182

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adding....

san diego-9(120)....

i think the rams are very over-rated. they are an nfl best +11 in turnover ratio.imo, that covers up a lot of hidden weaknesses. i think their secondary is very vulnerable (they allow 7.2 yards a pass) & their run defense ranks #27th (4.5 ypr) in the league. also since this game is being played on grass, i think their offense won't be as potent as it is on turf..

although the rams did beat denver, alot of their stats are built up against such teams s.f., arizona, detroit, g.b., & seattle, who we know is not nearly as good as last year.

on the other hand, sd's defense is ranked #1...& their defensive front seven is probably the best in the nfl....they are ranked #5 in run defense. also their best player, merriman isn?t suspended yet.

a couple of trends....

under marty, sd. is 13-4 ats the game after an upset loss.

3 of the 4 sd wins are by at least 27 points.

the rams are 6-20 ats in their last 26 road games against winning teams when being outrushed....which i think is a given....they are also 3-13 ats in their last 16 road games against winning teams who are off a loss.....& are also 7-18 ats on grass

good luck.
 
A

AR182

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going to play the snf game now since i won't be near my computer because i will be at a birthday party for most of the day today...


under 42(130) dallas/carolina....

the boys have been a high scoring team so far this year, but that's not how parcells likes to play football. the reason for the high scoring is because all of their games was decided by 7 or more points & in every game one team or the other had double digit leads at one point in the game.

i think now with romo in at qb, & with a shaky offensvie line, parcells will try to run the ball & use short passes to offset the carolina pass rush.

last week against the giants, dallas passed for over 300 yards. under parcells, dallas is 0-7 o/u the week after a loss in which they had at least 300 passing yards....they are also 0-4 o/u as a dog the week after they had at least 3x as many passing yards as rushing yards as a favorite.

carolina is home after playing 2 tough road games...they are 0-7 o/u as a home favorite after playing on the road in each of the previous 2 weeks.in addition carolina has had 3 home games this year & all 3 went under the total.


good luck.
 
A

AR182

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thanks guys..appreciate it.


went 5-2 yesterday.....

didn't see the cowboys game but am surprised that the game went over. however, in hindsite i think the under in the balt/n.o. game was a bad bet....

tonight i will try again for the under....


under 40(120) n.e. /minn.....

n.e.'s defense has given up 29 points in the last 3 games & i like the aggressive style of defense that minn. is playing....

a few trends that i have read that supports this play.....


road teams (n.e.) off a road favorite win by 14 or more points that play against a team coming off an over (minn.) have gone under 18 of the last 23 times.....that's 78%.l


play under - any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (n.e) - after allowing 6 points or less last game against opponent after a win by 10 or more points......

last 10 seasons the ats record is....28-7....80%


play under - any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (n.e.) - after a win by 21 or more points against opponent after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games.

since 1983 the ats record is ....27-7....79%


as long as there aren't any crazy tds this game should stay under.


good luck.
 
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