PUBLIC MONEY VS. REAL MONEY

[ADot]

I started to see a lot of people on here posting that "the public" is on this side so take the other side. First off, you're using websites that are polling people as to who they would take not what people are actually taking. I'm sure that there is some way to get the numbers on how many people are betting a side but that costs money= not information that you will be able to find on a free website. Also, the most important thing to know would be how much (in dollar amounts) is being wagered on each side- people tend to always assume that Vegas is out to get the public and that the public is always wrong- but if one sharp makes one wager that is equal to 30 bets from 30 different squares, guaging the public %'s as a barometer for fading in order to place your bet doesn't work out. Tonight, for example, people think the public is all over New England, which is a fair statement but that doesn't mean there isn't close to equal money on both sides. I don't believe that more than 60% of the money wagered on this game is on New England by skimming through some forums and talking to people about the game. Even announcers on TV are picking Minny to pull the "upset".
With that being said, I'm still on Minny+1.5
oh well

 

[hogman14]

Good points.

I think more important is not necessarily "the public," but what I refer to as "public perception." The trick is taking a stab at how we think the "public" is going to bet a game, and fading this bet. Poll 10 friends with a game that you percieve to be a fishy line, or something that you see as perhaps a lopsided public bet. I think good example Cleveland yesterday. Ask 10 friends who they would have taken given the spread and I would say 8/10 would go NYJs. Maybe this is a poor example, maybe I'm talking in circles, but I always think of perception.

 

[Morris]

Hogman, I agree with you all the way. I do better when going against trends and what the public thinks.After all books are making money going against the public. I try to do the same. Everyone here was on the Jets yesterday I took Cleve and won. The only thing about that is location, people tend to side with the Jets Giants and NE in our neck of the woods.

 

[Jorgesca]

sportsbook has a betting trends that i think is supposed to be the percentage of money bet on each side with them, it shows 74% on new england and they moved their line from -2.5 to 2, i like minnesota and i think a lot of cappers like them too but on MNF there is way more money from the non regular bettors...

 

[acer69]

Funny, I see those %'s yet 80-90% of all the forums I frequent have Minny. Most of the services are on them as well.:shrug:

 

[Morris]

I go on a website that shows the number of wagers on each team not the dollar amount. I don't see where the dollar amount comes into play. The person who wagers $1000 versus the $20 wager has no advantage. He is privy to the same info and goes with his own gut feeling. I'll go against a 65% to 75% opinion every day. JMHO.

 

[Marco]

I try to actually handicap the games and see where the real talent and advantage is compared to the pointspread. Never did believe in superstition and "public money" or "too many people on" type bullshit.....

Maybe I'm too practical of a person, but if there is a mismatch between the two teams that advantage is there in the morning the same as it is right before gametime, and judging the public perception doesn't change the outcome of the game, which is determined on the field. I can't ignore solid reasons for backing a position and then just throw it out just because other people piled on for the ride.

If Tiger Woods was playing some drunk out of the bar I wouldn't feel any different about betting on Tiger just because the rest of the planet wanted to make some easy money too. I take it there are some people here who would bet on the drunk just because the money overloaded on Woods?:142smilie :142smilie :142smilie

"Public money"....."too many people on".....Wouldn't have mattered who bet on Chicago or who bet on San Fran....or how much.....was an ass kicking and the end result was determined on the field, as always.

If you want to throw out sound reasoning go to the bingo parlor or play keno and gamble.....

 

[Dr. Maddog]

but what if you gave the drunk 50 strokes?

 

[ADot]

how do u think vegas makes money?

 

[Marco]

"...but what if you gave the drunk 50 strokes?"

With 50 strokes maybe my money would be on John Daly......:mj07:

 

[Marco]

"How do you think Vegas makes money?"

House advantage, poor money management by players....parlay players.....games of chance, slots, craps.......chasing off the card counters or those who appear to be legitimate threats....

There are tons of ways Vegas makes money.

Bottom line: Just because a bunch of people are all wagering on the same side doesn't mean that pick is automatically doomed.

Sometimes the books get killed when the wrong side wins.

 

[blgstocks]

"How do you think Vegas makes money?"

House advantage, poor money management by players....parlay players.....games of chance, slots, craps.......chasing off the card counters or those who appear to be legitimate threats....

There are tons of ways Vegas makes money.

Bottom line: Just because a bunch of people are all wagering on the same side doesn't mean that pick is automatically doomed.

Sometimes the books get killed when the wrong side wins.

Totally agree.

But I also do take into account public perception a little bit, but never enough to keep me off of a play I capped that came up as a strong winner, it would just be something that might keep me off a questionable play that if the public wasnt a facotr i might play.

 

[Andre]

Funny, I see those %'s yet 80-90% of all the forums I frequent have Minny. Most of the services are on them as well.:shrug:

Agree, something fishy I mean I belong to this large forum and another and it was close as to who was more popular NE or Minny. Yet certain sites showed 70+ % on NE. I notice this often.

 

[The Sponge]

if you knew how to read a line you would not have to use any of that other crap which by the way most is misleading because its from sports books. Asking a sports book to give you a hand is suicidal.

 

[THUNDER]

WatchIng line movement and when the line movement occurs,and knowing a few sharps are not guessing games either you know what to look for or you dont- if you do which most who think they do do not- are vital fo longterm success to making cashor you follow someone who knows what there doing gl

 

[infinii]

After all books are making money going against the public. I try to do the same.

I disagree here. This is NOT how the books make money. The books make money on juice, they are more than happy to balance the wagers bet on each game evenly on both teams as they simply take their juice and there's little risk of them getting slaughtered .

You cannot do the same because when you bet two games and go 1-1, you lose 10% whereas the book wins 10%. *That* my friend, is how the books make money.

To the orig poster. What makes you think "you're" not "the public"? Why does everyone on a betting forum think "the public" is someone other than themselves?

 

[johnnyb.]

i've mentioned in another forum that i'm taking parlay cards for recreational purposes and f.w.i.w. i have almost 80% cards with n.y. giants -13...
be interesting to see how this plays out today.