Boise (-25) over Fresno
Although the Broncos have been stampeding just about everyone in their path, they are just 3-4 ATS. Fresno State squad that has yet to cover a contest this season (0-7). Boise State will rely on a high powered offense led by running back Ian Johnson's 1,181 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns. The Fresno State defense gives up over 32 PPG which is not good news as the Boise State offense scores almost 40 PPG. Fresno State's offense is mediocre at best, putting up just over 21 PPG. They could struggle against a Boise State "D" that only allows 16.1 PPG. With numbers like these, it shouldn't be a surprise that nearly 60% of the early action is on Boise State -24.5. With the quarterback situation changing hands midway through the season, not much has remained consistent within the Bulldog offense, except for the offensive line and RB Dwayne Wright. The Bulldog star struggled against the stout LSU defense (42 yards on 15 carries), but he?s capable of carrying the offense with 25 to 30 carries running behind his quintet up front. The Bulldogs can?t allow Boise State to dominate time of possession, but they?ll get some help from their 12th defender Wright, so to speak, to keep BSU?s potent offense off the field. The defense is the best in the conference giving up only 311 yards per game ranking ninth in the nation against the run yielding only 76 yards per game. Fresno State completely shut down the running game in last year?s contest, holding BSU to 104 yards rushing (67 yards on one play), but this year?s defense gave up nearly six yards per carry to LSU?s running game. Expect to see Ian Johnson about 25 times, if for no other reason than to prove that last year was a fluke. The Bulldogs haven?t fared well in Boise in past years and this year will be no different. Although the sense of urgency will motivate them to play well early, the Broncos? running game will put the Bulldog front seven on its heels throughout the game. BSU quarterback Jared Zabransky will then pick holes in the FSU secondary on play action routes for a couple TDs. Boise will not play to the record of Fresno, they will play them like the team they have faced before and struggled against. Boise will come out and look to open it up on the bulldogs and use the smurf turf advantage to its fullest. Fresno is having a down year and I expect off a bye the broncos kick them while they are down. QB Z must show up tonight and help open it up for the running game. IMO the running game will be established by Boise but it will close down if QB Z doesn't keep the fresno defense honest. Also looking for a big effort from the Boise defense to control the line. History has said this is a close low scoring game but tonight I think on the smurf the broncos are just better. And on a side not both teams have not beaten the total the past few years but if Fresno makes a game of this it is by scoring points and I have a small lean on the over but sticking with the Broncos at home as my only play tonight.
Took a week off to get this back in order, played a few games last week and did alright. Hope all are well and had a good halloween. Now I'm off because I have 8 pints waiting.
Cheers
Irish
Although the Broncos have been stampeding just about everyone in their path, they are just 3-4 ATS. Fresno State squad that has yet to cover a contest this season (0-7). Boise State will rely on a high powered offense led by running back Ian Johnson's 1,181 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns. The Fresno State defense gives up over 32 PPG which is not good news as the Boise State offense scores almost 40 PPG. Fresno State's offense is mediocre at best, putting up just over 21 PPG. They could struggle against a Boise State "D" that only allows 16.1 PPG. With numbers like these, it shouldn't be a surprise that nearly 60% of the early action is on Boise State -24.5. With the quarterback situation changing hands midway through the season, not much has remained consistent within the Bulldog offense, except for the offensive line and RB Dwayne Wright. The Bulldog star struggled against the stout LSU defense (42 yards on 15 carries), but he?s capable of carrying the offense with 25 to 30 carries running behind his quintet up front. The Bulldogs can?t allow Boise State to dominate time of possession, but they?ll get some help from their 12th defender Wright, so to speak, to keep BSU?s potent offense off the field. The defense is the best in the conference giving up only 311 yards per game ranking ninth in the nation against the run yielding only 76 yards per game. Fresno State completely shut down the running game in last year?s contest, holding BSU to 104 yards rushing (67 yards on one play), but this year?s defense gave up nearly six yards per carry to LSU?s running game. Expect to see Ian Johnson about 25 times, if for no other reason than to prove that last year was a fluke. The Bulldogs haven?t fared well in Boise in past years and this year will be no different. Although the sense of urgency will motivate them to play well early, the Broncos? running game will put the Bulldog front seven on its heels throughout the game. BSU quarterback Jared Zabransky will then pick holes in the FSU secondary on play action routes for a couple TDs. Boise will not play to the record of Fresno, they will play them like the team they have faced before and struggled against. Boise will come out and look to open it up on the bulldogs and use the smurf turf advantage to its fullest. Fresno is having a down year and I expect off a bye the broncos kick them while they are down. QB Z must show up tonight and help open it up for the running game. IMO the running game will be established by Boise but it will close down if QB Z doesn't keep the fresno defense honest. Also looking for a big effort from the Boise defense to control the line. History has said this is a close low scoring game but tonight I think on the smurf the broncos are just better. And on a side not both teams have not beaten the total the past few years but if Fresno makes a game of this it is by scoring points and I have a small lean on the over but sticking with the Broncos at home as my only play tonight.
Took a week off to get this back in order, played a few games last week and did alright. Hope all are well and had a good halloween. Now I'm off because I have 8 pints waiting.
Cheers
Irish
