Should have waited a bit, it appears. Just put the other 2.5 units on Oklahoma -2.
My reasoning:
Texas A&M is the most overrated team in the country. I have gone over this, but I don't think it can be understated.
They have played a mediocre schedule... which include these doozies to get to 8-1:
*Non-conferance laughers against terrible The Citadel, UL-Lafayette, and LTU at home.
* Should have lost to Army in San Antonio (TAMU won by 4, but had to stop 4 Army plays from inside the 3 at the end of the game to win).
* Choked a game away at home against a since-proven mediocre Texas Tech team.
* Got soundly outplayed at Kansas, but scored two late TD's to win by a FG.
* Escaped Mizzou by 6.
* Should have lost to OSU... 1 point win in OT.
That is a long way of saying this: they could SO EASILY be 4-5 right now. I'm talking a bounce of the ball in each of those games. This establishes the line value I look for in a big play.
But more importantly, from a handicapping perceptive... I dont see how TAMU scores the amount of points needed to win this one. Stoops and Oklahoma are going to key on the run. Granted, most teams have tried that against the Aggies this year... but the Sooners have the athletes to play man on the outside and still pack the middle of the field effectively.
TAMU's ground games success comes from pounding Lane, then having Goodson and his sprinter speed attack the outsides... with McGee a decent runner himself adding some deception.
Here's my question. What happens if the run game is taken away? McGee hasn't had to play without it this year. He has been effective when teams stuff the box and he can make high percentage passes to receivers in space. My guess is that will not be the case in this game. OU is going to stuff the box, and get heat on McGee on the play-action passes.
Now, I'm not a big fan at all of OU's offense... but they have been surprisingly effective, despite the absense of Bomar and then Peterson. Not be honest, I dont think they have to do a bunch to win this game. If OU plays defense like I think they will... this is going to be a low scoring game where Stoops will grind the clock and put Thompson in a comfort zone. Thompson isn't a good QB by any means, but if he doesnt have to win a game, he is good enough... because he can create.
I also think OU's offense has been able to open up a bit since the Peterson injury... they know they cant rely on only one guy to win the game... and other people have been picking up the slack. I expect a continued progression. IMO, Peterson's absence only adds to the line value.
Also, TAMU has played the 93rd rated schedule up to this point in the nation... Oklahoma the 7th... TAMU has nothing that the Sooners havent seen and beaten up to this point, wheras the most impressive victory TAMU has was an overrated Mizzou team at home (Oklahoma beat Mizzou on the road, handily, also beat Washington, and should have won in Oregon if not for the screwjob the officials gave them).
That's all I got, for now. By no means a lock or anything like that. I've been given a matchup that I love with a number I love. Combine that with a very favorable handicapping edge that I gave them, and the way that I expect the game to play out playing right into the Sooner's hands... that gives me the big-play confidence. That's the short answer, I guess, DD. I'll freely admit this has been a frustrating season for me... my only losing season in ncaa football since I started betting 4 years ago. So maybe this is good fade material. I just thought that I have this confidence, so I will post...
