DD Rushing Dogs Week 11!!!!!

[blgstocks]

No pure plays last week, but the two plays that were closest both covered.

No pure plays this week, butI think each one of these is pretty close to the system.


+11 Air Force avg 160 MORE rush yrds than ND and they only give up 6 more rushing yrds on d. Pretty close to a pure play if you ask me. ND is just so explosiive in the air and AF is a one dimensional team like Navy is.

+27 Kent St. avg more than 50 yrds more rushing yrds a game than VT, but VT run defense has much better #'s (102 >154)and has been top 5 rush defenses all year. With Wake on deck for next week I can see this being a game Kent St has a chance to cover. Just hold onto the ball!


+8.5 Marshall avg 60 more yrds rushing than ECU and they have better rush d #'s as well. If this line moves to double digits this is a definite play.


+19.5 Wyoming avg 135 to BYU 143 on rushing yrds, but they allow the same amount of rushing yrds against (108 ypg), WYO has far better pass D (allowing 60 yrds less a game than BYU)


GL this week to everyone, thoughts and opinions welcome

 

[buddy]

blgstocks,

I am paying attention to these posts.

Thanks for taking the time.

 

[pt1gard]

thanx blg,

i wonder if AF falls back 14-0 how effective smashmouth will be; not saying thats gonna happen for sure but i dont see them playing ND that well

 

[blgstocks]

thanks buddy, I am just glad to contribute a little to this forum(ncaa foots), which is easily my favorite.

And pt1, I agree with you on AF, i just dont see them covering. I think the game will play out much like Navy/ND where AF will be forced to abandon the run once they get down a few scores. I played every game on this card but that one, even though it is closest to being a pure play.

 

[nismo438]

blg, first of all thank you for all of your work on this angle. i have been following your DDRD threads for the last couple of weeks. do you happen to have an updated record for the year on the "pure" plays?

thanks again.

 

[gman2]

re: navy and air force

i think theres a difference.

navy CANT throw it
air force DOESNT WANT to throw it.

air force is always going to be run first as long as deberry is there. but carney is the most capable throwing quarterback theyve had their in a long time. he threw it around a lot in high school and was getting looks from other power conference schools.

obviously air force doesnt want to play from 14-0 behind in the first quarter. but if they get in a hole where they have to pass more than theyd like, they are at least capable of it. rest assured, their passing game wont be pretty. but carney is a qb that can do it in spurts. air force definitely has the best qb of the service academies. i think the falcons deserve a look.

 

[RIGHT SIDE]

Thanks for the post Stocks!! I just got done look'n them over too.....nothing "pure" comes up like you said again this week. I didn't bother looking at the home DD dogs as from my experience with this system in the past they have not done well....just the away teams have done well. Just wanted you to know....I almost pulled the trigger on Ark St last week with the BIG number and this week it looks to be Kent St. and Louisiana Tech both getting BIG points as both of them outrush their opponent, but I just can't bare myself to take those two teams as LT gives up almost double the rushing yards Hawaii does..yikes!!! I'm passing these plays this week..waiting for the "pure" one's to come up! Hopefully one or two come up in the bowl games...I think it was last year Arkansas St. was a play against SMiss and covered in the bowls!

 

[RIGHT SIDE]

Oh...by the way...the dog rushing system went 2-1 in the NFL last week again...makes it 4-2 last two weeks!! Not bad......

 

[blgstocks]

thanks rs for keeping me updated on the nfl, and i wouldnt even bother with LT either, thats why i didnt inlcude them up here.

Thanks for the info Gman on airforce

Nismo, i do not know how it has done so far because i had only started tracking the dd rushing dogs for about 5 weeks now, and then through talking with the guys, we got it down to a "pure play" where the dd dogs have to outrush and defend the rush better than their opponent to be a pure play. So those dont come along very often, but when they do they hit at a high percentage from what members have told me of previous years and what i have seen of the little i have tracked it this season. So basically if there are no pure plays I take the closests games that follow the idea behind the system, which I believe is "If a team can control the line of scrimmage they have a huge edge in the game" add in the points and that is why these hit at such a high %

 

[nismo438]

Thanks. Keep up the good work and best of luck this week.