college plays for 11/9-11/11.....

A

AR182

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125-83-2.....+14.02*

not having the best of years in college....my winning % is fine but am not hitting my larger bets like i did the last few years.....

in tomorrow's games....

i'm going to pass on the louisville/rutgers game....imo, ul is a better all around team than rutgers, but don't know how much energy & emotion they used up in beating w. virginia last week. rutgers defense is rated higher than ul's but they haven't played against an offense as diversified as ul's. i like the way rutgers runs the ball but don't have any confidence in their qb, teel in winning this game if their running is slowed down.

i'm also passing on the wyoming/byu game because i don't want to bet against the byu express, who i think has a very under-rated defense.....& i don't have confidence in the wyoming offense at all tomorrow.


akron-17....

we all know that buffalo upset 15-16 point kent st last week at home to break a long running losing streak.....kent st. handed buff. the game by turning the ball over 5. i wonder if buffalo is still cleebrating last weeks win, which is one of the reasons why i'll play akron at home. another reason is that buffalo is starting a young qb who is making his first start on the road in this game.

buffalo this year on the road....

offense....

13.4 points per game.....64 rushing yards per game at 2.1 ypr....4.8 yds. per pass play...& 211 total yds. per game on the road....all awful stats.

defense....

40 points per game.....278 rushing yards per game at 6.3 ypr...allow 67.6 % completion rate....6.8 yds. per pass play....441 total yards per game....also awful stats.

akron this year at home...

offense....

30.7 points per game...151 rushing yards per game at 4.4 ypr...65% completion rate....6.2 ypp......except for the rushing yards (which is about average), all very good stats.

defense......

18.7 points per game....3.9 ypr....4.4 ypp...485 completion rate....better stats than their record would indicate.

in the last few games akron has shown some life running the ball...their best back, kennedy ran for 178 yds. last week against bg...so i think he will do better in this game.

this is a regular play for me but i think akron wins this by 24-28 points.

good luck.
 
Irish

Irish

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Good luck AR
I am passing because I think teams like Buffalo are used to moral victories and that means not giving up and hitting some back door covers especially if Akron gets up early they willl lose intesity. Not sold on Akron because they run hot and cold but if they come to play I think you have the right side. They have a good coach that I think can lead that team to a bit number.

Cheers
Irish
 
D

Dayad

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GL to you AR. I've tried to pull the trigger on Akron but haven't yet. Your insight has helped lean even more to place a small bet. Thanks again.
 
A

AR182

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thanks guys..appreciate it.


for saturday....


so. fla.-9 (120)...

eventhough my numbers show a dd win over cuse, i at first i didn't want to take sfla in this game because they are off an upsetting win over pitt. last week & have a game next week against louisville. but then i read that the sfla. coach feels that his team is not getting the recognition that he feels that they deserve...so i think sfla. will be ready for the cuse on sat....plus this is sfl's final home game of the year.

syracuse is 0-4 in big east play this year averaging 11 points per game.for the year the cuse is ranked 112 th in total offense & 109th in total defense nationally. on the other hand so. fla. is ranked 42nd in total offense & 19th in total defense nationally.

the cuse is 5-21 ats in their last 26 times as a conference road dog & 2-11 ats as dogs with rest...& so. fla. is 26-4 ats in their last 30 su wins.


sdst.-7.....

i think sdst. is a much better team than unlv in almost every aspect of football.in addition i read that the unlv coach will be playing a lot of his younger players from now until the end of the season.

here is a system that i read about that supports this play....take it fwiw....

from game 8 on, play on a home favorite of more than 3 points with 1 season su win off a conference road game vs. an opponent with less than 2 season su wins....

since 1980 the ats record is 17-0-1....


navy-13....

this game is being played at a neutral site. it's very simple...navy is 29-1 ats in the last 30 su road wins.


n.mexico+8....

n. mexico has won 3 straight & needs one more win to become bowl eligible.i also think that n. mexico (ranked #36 in rushing defense) should be able to somewhat contain the tcu rushing attack.

i read that from 1999, n. mex. is 29-13 su & 32-10 ats from game 7 on of the regular season, including 24-1 ats in their last 25 late season games when not favored by more than 3 points.on the other hand, under this coach tcu is 7-14 ats in conference road game & 2-9 ats as a road favorite of more than 7 points (0-5 ats as conference road favorite).


san jose st.+14....

this is another home dog that is playing well.

here is another system that i read about that pertains to boise & 2 other teams.....

since 1980, undefeated teams playing on the road from game 10 or later are 33-53-1 ats. when they play against a conference opponent they are 23-39-1 ats...boise, michigan, & ohio st. fall into this category.

if these undefeated teams play an opponent who is off su/ats win the ats record is 5-21-1 ats. if they defeated this week's opponent last season then the ats record is 2-15-1.....boise & ohio st. apply here.

good luck.
 
trolln4walii

trolln4walii

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GL this week AR. Nice info on the Zips game. Wish you the best on it. I've been conditioned to steer clear of the MAC ;) (with the exception of the Rockets sticking it to my Huskies Tuesday night....and Novak should be strung up by the sack with the play calling on first n goal from the 2!!)

Sorry to get side-tracked :SIB
 
W

wy1984

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I think that all of ur posted saturday plays fit my system so far. Hopefully thats good luck to you, b/c I had a horrific Thursday, but I really like this weekends card.

Gl
Wy
 
A

AR182

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thanks guys appreciate the nice words....


adding....

fla. atl.+4(120)
tulane+6
colorado-8(120)
under 47(120) ill/purdue
n. carolina+14(120)
miami+4(120)


good luck.
 
shamrock

shamrock

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Good luck as always Al

don't know what to expect from Miami today? I can't generally play them, as I can't route for that team. Lol
 
A

AR182

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thanks guys....


adding....

tulsa-14(120)....

rice gives up 34 points per game on defense this year. in it's last 13 games tulsa is 12-1 ats when they score more than 28 points, while rice is 28-63ats when they allow that many points.


good luck.
 
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