NFL line mistake

Coach Woody

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I do not get why the Vegas Line is always small on the bears total.........

Jets have been playing better ball and Chicago can score on offense, defense or even on field goal attempts by the other team........................

I love the Bears over 38..........

I don't make game of years or days or anything like that crap.................learned my lesson long time ago...........but really like this and will hit for doulbe what I would normally play........................


Any comments would be great
 

Dead Money

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NFL line mistake...

NFL line mistake...

No disrespect....


Those huge plush carpeted buildings along the strip in Vegas built by other peoples money, tell me otherwise, they are not charitable people....

Lines are simply to create 50-50 action...hope it hits for you.....



glta
 

Coach Woody

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no disrespect taken I just think that Vegas knows the public only thinks about the Bears defense....

Public opinion then would be Defense= low scoring

I think the bears can score with there defense

Defense wil account for at least 10 points

so over play is a great play.............................

I know vegas knows what they are doing hell they kick my ass every year..........................i just think the public and opinion by Vegas of that has not caught up on how good the Bears are.....
 

gjn23

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no disrespect taken I just think that Vegas knows the public only thinks about the Bears defense....

Public opinion then would be Defense= low scoring

I think the bears can score with there defense

Defense wil account for at least 10 points

so over play is a great play.............................

I know vegas knows what they are doing hell they kick my ass every year..........................i just think the public and opinion by Vegas of that has not caught up on how good the Bears are.....

as a bears fan i can attest to the following:

1) vegas is slow to catch up to things
2) the bears under was golden all year last year
3) the bears over has been golden all year this year

people associate the bears with defense and righfully so, but quite honestly the last 4 games they have been very average to below average vs (az, sf , mia, nyg) in terms of yards, tackling and pts allowed (thanks to the offensive turnovers)

the bears also can score and score in bunches thanks to turnover from the defense (somethng that they still do well) , special teams and the offense moving the ball.

that said

one of these days a bears game will look like a "normal bears game'.....16-3.....and the golden over may get shot out of the water, and this sunday might be the day as the jets dont match up well on the offensive side of the ball and will play ball control (clock control)
 

yanno

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the line i would love to hear reasoning behind is INDY -1

Here is a cut and paste of an article from another web site. Hope I'm not doing anything wrong in "lifting" it. It does give some reasoning about the line from a bookmaking point of view. Not sure if I should attribute the article to the writer or not. :shrug:

Why the Colts opened as an underdog

Is this the week the Indianapolis Colts finally lose?

It is if the Dallas Cowboys running game has anything to do with it.

For the third time in four games, the undefeated Indianapolis Colts opened as a slight road underdog. But bettors shouldn?t get too excited. Only a select few sportsbooks dared to open the Colts at +1 and those who did quickly saw a pile of Indy money.

?Dallas has been a highly regarded team all year and are playing at home against an Indy team that has shown no ability to stop the run yet,? says an oddsmaker from Pinnaclesports.com.

?With the home-field advantage and Dallas` running game, Pinnacle opened the Cowboys as small favorites over the unbeaten Colts.?

Most books opened Sunday?s game as a pick. All have since moved in Indy?s direction, including Pinnacle, which made the Colts a 1-point road favorite.

That number may go higher but many sportsbooks appear content with their handle. Moving the Colts to a field goal would create too much value for bettors.

?Indy will continue to draw money as a short priced favorite or a short priced under dog,? says John Avello from Wynn Las Vegas. ?The pattern I see with the Colts is if they?re1between 10-12 point favorites, then they?re a `bet-against` because bettors feel the spread is too high for them to cover.

?So at this point, as long as there?s a close spread, they?re going to draw money.?

The Colts face arguably their toughest challenge this week with the Cowboys? fifth-ranked rushing attack. Dallas is averaging 135.7 yards per game and has scored 13 total touchdowns, second to only LaDainian Tomlinson?s San Diego Chargers.

Julius Jones and Marion Barber III give the Cowboys depth at running and could give the Colts defense a run for its money. With close to 160 yards against per game, the Colts have the league?s worst rushing defense.

But with Peyton Manning the running back position the offense for the Colts, it makes it hard to believe Indy can?t win in a shootout. Manning has engineered three game-winning drives this season for the 9-0 Colts (6-3 against the spread).

?When you bet on Peyton Manning you?re always going to be in the game,? says Avello. ?You know if the Colts get down, he can bring you back. He?s quality.?

 

Dice34

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as a bears fan i can attest to the following:

1) vegas is slow to catch up to things
2) the bears under was golden all year last year
3) the bears over has been golden all year this year

people associate the bears with defense and righfully so, but quite honestly the last 4 games they have been very average to below average vs (az, sf , mia, nyg) in terms of yards, tackling and pts allowed (thanks to the offensive turnovers)

the bears also can score and score in bunches thanks to turnover from the defense (somethng that they still do well) , special teams and the offense moving the ball.

that said

one of these days a bears game will look like a "normal bears game'.....16-3.....and the golden over may get shot out of the water, and this sunday might be the day as the jets dont match up well on the offensive side of the ball and will play ball control (clock control)


What he said :lol2

I dont think its a secret anymore, the bears can score in all 3 phases of the game, since they average 30 a game........I have not played a Bears total all year and this weekend I'll most likely play the under.........

My reasoning: Jets will bring the blitz in which Rex does not bode well....to offset there will be alot of checkdowns and a more ball control approach to the O.......The Jets running attack is not as fast as the Bears D and the Jets dont have the speed on the outside to spread the Bears out....Jets paid attention last week and will do the same thing the Giants did, they wont punt to Hester and most likely will cover on the FG attempts:142smilie

so barring a boatload of turnovers.....this total stays under.......

Giants and Bears each giftwrapped 10 pts to each other last week.......24-10 game seems reasonable
 

el JB

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What does Dallas has give us in this season?

What does Dallas has give us in this season?

will take Indy w'me eyes closed as they have showed desire to win and done that all year while 'boys will be boys and nothin' u tell me will otherwise change my mind.
 

hogman14

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Vegas roots for Vegas, not 50/50.

Vegas roots for Vegas, not 50/50.

Right. I suppose Indy -1 is designed to create 50/50 action. Give me a break.


I always felt this was a laugher as well. They make the line high/low enough to get enough lopsided action by the public's $$$.
 

c20916

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as a bears fan i can attest to the following:

1) vegas is slow to catch up to things
2) the bears under was golden all year last year
3) the bears over has been golden all year this year

people associate the bears with defense and righfully so, but quite honestly the last 4 games they have been very average to below average vs (az, sf , mia, nyg) in terms of yards, tackling and pts allowed (thanks to the offensive turnovers)

the bears also can score and score in bunches thanks to turnover from the defense (somethng that they still do well) , special teams and the offense moving the ball.

that said

one of these days a bears game will look like a "normal bears game'.....16-3.....and the golden over may get shot out of the water, and this sunday might be the day as the jets dont match up well on the offensive side of the ball and will play ball control (clock control)

I think given the situation the bears O has put the D in they have played pretty well. In the Miami game they had drives of like 6 yds, 19 yds, an int for a TD and a 48 yd drive or something like that. The scores they have given up have been on short fields.
 

gjn23

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I think given the situation the bears O has put the D in they have played pretty well. In the Miami game they had drives of like 6 yds, 19 yds, an int for a TD and a 48 yd drive or something like that. The scores they have given up have been on short fields.

this is true

however they have not

pressured the passer as well the past few game
have not stopped the run at all
and have jumped their responsibilities leaving gaping holes in the defense
plus they havent tackled very well either

all of this is compared to earlier in the season

personally, im more worried about that and the lack of a running game than rex grossman
 

The Jets Fan

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Nobody has the lack of a running game against the Jets. They have been Brutal. Why new England didn't just run,run,run is beyond Me.
This is a Awful Match up for NY. See the Jacksonville Game. I could easily see 2 of Chads lob Balls going the other Way against a Fast Defense like Chicago.
 

Dr. Fade

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Most of you are morons. The line is really set @ CRIS formally Caribi- that is where the 1st # comes out at- not Vegas. Their linemakers set the line and then allow a hand full of sharps the opening shot @ the #'s and let them iron them out (of course they limit the action, but allow them to play- where they would normally would be the ones "black booked.") Believe me, in general, you can get 500 $100 bettors and 3 guys will end up outweighing the 500. They aren't laying #'s out to "fool" the public. They are protecting themselves against the boys with the large ammunition. But continue thinking there is a conspiracy- that's the reality. I know
 

THUNDER

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there's one person responsible for the betting lines during the 2005 NFL season that kicks off tonight, it's the 41-year-old Scucci. Around 5:30 p.m. PT every Sunday, Scucci is the first legalized bookmaker to post the "Las Vegas Line" ? point spreads for the next week's NFL games followed by legal and illegal bookies around the country.

Those opening lines spread at Internet speed to other major sports books in Nevada; online "offshore" books in the Caribbean, Canada and Europe; TV and newspapers and finally amateur bettors playing football pools.

Millions of bettors "hammer out," or adjust, those starting point spreads. But it's Scucci who analyzes the collective wisdom of oddsmakers such as Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) and puts the first numbers up to bet.

It's Scucci whose benchmark lines help determine winners and losers from the estimated $40 million in football betting every fall weekend in Nevada and another $2 billion to $5 billion in illegal football betting around the country. It's Scucci who helps set the tone for the High Holy Day of sports betting: Super Bowl Sunday, when an estimated $5 billion to $7 billion in legal and illegal wagers changes hands. (Related item: Chat with Danny Sheridan, Thursday 3 p.m. ET)

"We know it carries a great deal of responsibility. It's not something we take lightly," says Scucci at the 47-year old hotel that inspired the Robert De Niro film Casino.

So goes the parallel world of sports betting in Sin City, where "wise guys" or professional bettors battle "bookies" for supremacy. And everybody makes money off "squares," the derogatory term for amateur bettors Vegas types use only privately for fear of offending customers. In this parallel universe, real-life victories and losses on the football field mean nothing.

It's all about the betting lines, those talismanic, seductive numbers that are ubiquitous in the sports world. Most newspapers print them (including USA TODAY, which publishes lines supplied by sports analyst Danny Sheridan). Thousands of hands labor to create them. But line-making is as much an art as a science. An industry in itself.

An oddsmaker's objective with a betting line is not to mystically predict winners or losers or final scores. It's to "divide the public," says Kenny White, the 42-year old co-owner of LVSC. That is, to make bettors greedy enough or angry enough to bet.

"It's not rocket science, and it's not voodoo. But it's a little of both," says Michael "Roxy" Roxborough, the 54-year old handicapper who founded LVSC in 1982 before selling it in '99 and retiring to Thailand.

Sports betting is illegal in the USA except for two states: Nevada; and Oregon, where consumers bet on sports through a state-run lottery. But everybody seems to be doing it: celebrities, Wall Streeters, college kids, housewives.

Sports wagering is a "corrosive" vice that leads to addiction, corruption and bankruptcy, charges Tom Grey, executive director of the National Coalition Against Legalized Gambling. "It's a Molotov cocktail: money, greed and gambling."

Roughly seven out of 10 U.S. adults gamble at least once a year, according to the National Council on Problem Gambling. Roughly 6 million to 8 million qualify as problem gamblers, says the council's director, Keith Whyte. Sports betting addicts account for almost half the callers to 888-LASTBET, says Arnie Wexler, a recovering compulsive gambler who runs the help line.

Sports betting has become a "silent addiction" for many college and even high school kids, warns Wexler. An NCAA study of 21,000 students two years ago found 35% of male college students and 10% of female students had bet on sports the previous year.

Roughly 21% of 11th-graders reported they had gambled on sports in the previous year, according to Gambling with Delaware's Kids, a study by the University of Delaware's Center for Drug and Alcohol Studies in 2003.

Dangerous or not, plenty of consumers who live by the credo of Paul Newman's pool hustler in The Color of Money: "Money won is twice as sweet as money earned."

Birth of a betting line
 

THUNDER

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THIS AND ONE OTHER GUY OUT OF VEGAS SET THE ORIGINAL LINES THAT IS A FACT- IT SURE IN THE HELL IS NOT CRIS lol
 
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